slimm44 wrote:Che, the touches tendency is in no way associated with USG. It's actually ((FGAper36+ASTper36)-3PTAper36)x4
This is why Shaq wasn't getting much touches in the games you played in 03-04. Up until that season, he averaged approximately 18-19 FGA per 36 minutes, that season he averaged 14. That's a major drop.
My bad, I must've misread the mod description. I actually looked up USG and was surprised that the formula didn't include assists in any kind of way, glad your formula does.
I'm gonna critizise your touches tendency formula here. My only objective is to suggest improvements, I respect the amount and the quality of thought and also work you put in this project and I'm not gonna be offended if you don't like my ideas. Also I have no idea how the sim engine works, I just care about gameplay and the fact there is a a big gameplay difference between a 20 USG% Shaq and a 26 USG% Shaq is the only reason I care about that stat.
I believe touches tendency affects the amount of plays run for a player but may affect also affect freelance mode in some way, don't know (please correct me). Ultimately it affects how much a player will get the ball (and thus FGA and thus PPG). The USG% stat is almost the same thing, a function of FGA, FTA & TOV to measure how likely a player is to end a possession, to be the final stop. I believe your formula is closer to USG% than to (my understanding of) the touch tendency because your factors (2PA & AST) also measure the ending of a possession, you collect those two stats by being the last or second to last stop. Your formula doesn't care whether the play started with you or if some other guy made a play and the ball was just swung to you (unless the guy directly assisted you) and I don't know a stat that does. So I'd agree that going the ending-possession way is the way to go.
What I believe would increase the accuracy of your touch formula is
1. working in FTA & TOV, because they depict the ending of a possession as well as FGA does and I don't see a redundancy here, a FTA is usually the same kind of positive conclusion to an attack as a FGA. Using FTA would boost Shaq (and other stars who get fouled a lot) and btw. his FTA remained constant even as his FGA dropped off, like you mentioned, he just converted at a much worse rate in he '04 season than before that.
2. Also is there a possibility of replacing AST/36 with something like a "passes-that-led-to FGA"/36 (if that even exists)? Reason being that AST depicts only made baskets while FGA depicts both makes (FGM) and misses, which seems incoherent.
3. Furthermore, wouldn't per 100 poss. stats be more appropiate than per 36 min. stats for this (eliminates pace)?
4. May it be a good idea to insert some biases into the formula, like substracting a few points for guys who bring the ball, start the play and will see lots of the ball anyway (like PGs, the Pippen/Odom & maybe the Kobe/T-Mac types) and adding a few points for guys who need to be fed the ball in certain positions to be effective (anyone who can't dribble, especially post up bigs)?
Feel free to ignore this if you think that stuff wouldn't affect gameplay enough or would be too inonvenient to implement, just trying to provide critical feedback here and the mod plays awesomely well as is.
