Contenders and Pretenders

[Kevin]

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[b][size=150]West[/size][/b]
[b]Pretenders:[/b]


[b]Contenders:[/b]





[b][size=150]East[/size][/b]
[b]Pretenders:[/b]


[b]Contenders:[/b]


19 (?) days left and it's the playoffs. I want to know who you think are the pretenders and the contenders in each conference. You can explain your answer if you want.

[Kevin]

West
Pretenders:
Oklahoma City Thunder - If KD was healthy this season, I would've said that they were contenders even if they are going to face the Warriors in the first round. But with Durant and Ibaka out for this season, there is no way they are going to win a series versus the Warriors.

Los Angeles Clippers - Yeah, the Clippers. The Clippers also have their "big three" with Paul, Griffin and Jordan not to mention Jamal Crawford coming off the bench but do you think they can win a title with that shitty bench? Turkoglu, Davis, Rivers, Barnes.

Portland Trailblazers - Ever since they lost Mathews, they have been struggling and (I think) they are now 8-7. Aldridge has been playing great even though his thumb is a mess but can Portland rely on Lillard? Ever since being almost snubbed, he has been struggling like crazy and that'll hurt their chances down the road.

Memphis Grizzlies - They started the season hot but ever since the all-star break, they've been playing shit.

Dallas Mavericks - Trading for Rondo was a bad idea. Rondo and Monta just don't get along too well.

Contenders:
San Antonio Spurs - I am aware of the fact that the trio of Duncan, Parker and Ginobili hasn't won a back-to-back championship but with Leonard, Green, Mills and Splitter joining the crew, maybe they can.

Houston Rockets - Harden's been great this season and is on his way to becoming this season's MVP and Howard is back. The only thing holding them back a little is Patrick Beverley's injury.

Golden State Warriors - Duh.

[Lamrock]

Man, I really must be procrastinating...

West
Pretenders:

Portland - Despite LaMarcus Aldridge cementing himself as a true contender for best Blazer ever, and a potential All-NBA 1st teamer (will be close - Davis is obviously better but LA has played more games), the Blazers' season has been a lot like last year: 60+ win pace in the first half, borderline playoff team in the second. Barring injury, I'm not sure who this team can beat in the first round besides Dallas, but chances of playing them went down considerably last night. Perhaps we can upset Houston again, but without our third best player in Matthews, it'll be tough. Maybe next year?

Memphis - They are really good, and they'll give whoever they play a tough series, but I just don't think they have the talent or three point shooting ability to make it out of the West.

Houston - Howard helps a bit but isn't the player he used to be. The geriatric PG rotation of Terry/Prigioni doesn't help. This team is still tough, but I don't see their offense holding up in the playoffs.

Dallas/OKC - lol

Contenders:

Golden State - By far the league's best team in the regular season. They should make the Finals barring an injury to Curry or (more likely) Bogut.

San Antonio - If they get the 2 or 3 seed, watch out! I don't think they're as good or motivated as last season but you can never count them out.

LA Clippers - Finally healthy for the most part, they've been great since Blake's return and quietly have the second best SRS in the league.

East
Pretenders:

Everybody but Cleveland. This includes Atlanta, sadly.

Contenders:

LeBron

[Alpha_]

West
Pretenders: Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, Portland Trailblazers


Contenders: Golden State Warriors, San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets





East
Pretenders: All except the Cavs lol


Contenders: Cleveland Cavaliers

[Andrew]

West

Pretenders: Houston, Portland, LA Clippers, Memphis, Dallas

"Pretenders" is a bit of a strong word to use here, but if we're separating the most likely candidates to come out of the West from the slightly less likely, then I suppose it's a fair enough term. Granted, the West is competitive, and any upsets are more like "upsets", but these are the teams I see taking each other out, then falling to a contender.

I'm also not counting Oklahoma City (or New Orleans, if they end up nabbing the eighth spot) in either category, as they're neither legitimate contenders, nor in a position to possibly be considered one. They're not really in the discussion when it comes to who's a legit contender, and who's masquerading as one.

Contenders: Golden State, San Antonio

The Spurs may be in sixth place, and home court advantage was huge for them last year, but they're the defending champions and I'm not going to count them out until such time as they've been eliminated. How many times have they supposedly been finished in...well, almost the past decade now? Their resilience wins them the nod here.

I also think Golden State deserves a lot of credit for what they've done this season. Sure, the table is set for a colossal crash and burn, a la the Mavericks in 2007, but I'm going to say that they keep rolling right through to the Western Conference Finals. Just as the Playoff mettle of the Spurs' roster has me thinking they're still a legitimate contender, I also have to acknowledge the Warriors' brilliance and depth. Kerr's a rookie coach, but he seems to have good assistants and learned from two great coaches in Phil Jackson and Gregg Popovich. That'll be a fun clash, if it happens.

East

Pretenders: Toronto, Chicago, Washington

Like Oklahoma City (or possibly New Orleans), I'm leaving Milwaukee, Miami, and Brooklyn/Boston/Charlotte off the list, because they're neither pretenders nor contenders. They're Playoff teams - by virtue of being in a weak conference, if you want to be brutally honest about it - and that's about it.

Once again, pretenders may be a bit of a harsh word, but there is something holding each of those teams back from being bonafide contenders this year. If Chicago can stay healthy, they could feasibly end up having a surprise run, but I don't see them getting out of the East. Similar situation with Toronto: Eastern Conference Finals isn't a completely unrealistic expectation, but a second round exit seems more likely. Washington really seems to have faltered as the season has worn out, so I could certainly see them losing to the Bulls or Raptors in the first round.

Contenders: Cleveland, Atlanta

I'm going to give the Hawks their due here. Like the Warriors, everything's set up for an abrupt and disappointing exit much earlier than you'd expect, but I think they've got a very good chance of keeping it together and making the Eastern Conference Finals. I could see them getting out of the East, though I'm not sure about their chances of actually beating whoever comes out of the West.

Cleveland has gotten it together as the season has progressed, they made some good deals that bolstered their roster, and, you know, LeBron James is there.I kind of feel it's a toss-up right now between them and the Hawks as far as advancing to the Finals - let's see how they both perform in the Playoffs - but I'm not sure either of them will be able to topple the Western Conference Champions.

[Kevin]

I don't really know about the Atlanta Hawks being contenders because in a 7 game series, teams MIGHT pick up their way of distributing the ball, etc. and their offense might get shutdown because of that.

[Andrew]

You could say that of most any team. That's why the Playoffs are described as being a completely different situation: winning (or even sweeping) the regular season series against a team may well end up being meaningless come the postseason.

[NovU]

Hawks suffer what the Spurs enjoy. Reputation.

Spurs been playing bad this year but years of success has people thinking they can suddenly shift gear to another level for the playoffs. Whereas the Hawks saw no success in the playoffs despite most consecutive playoffs appearance record.

I don't trust them myself either so I would pick Cavs in a series. Hawks has a job to change people's perception this year like the Warriors successfully did over last couple years with gradual improvement to absolute domination this year.

[Mandich]

Contenders: Cavs, Clippers Rockets Warriors and Mavericks. You've got to have an underdog otherwise it's no fun.

[Patr1ck]

This year is wide open.

It's hard to differentiate the East contenders and pretenders, since that conference is pretty wide open to any team that goes on a streak, while the Western contenders are all competitive, they need to stay healthy and consistent to get to the Finals.

West
Pretenders:

Clippers. My favorite team is a pretender. They are missing depth and weapons. Jamal Crawford and his 40% shooting off the bench when he comes back is not a weapon. Their offense breaks down too often, and they still look dumbfounded on defense too much to finish a series without playing against a shorthanded team.

Thunder. They are not really pretenders, but without Durant, they aren't contenders. Enjoy those numbers for now Westbrook.

Grizzlies. They had their chance, but never made it, and won't with this team, imo. It's pretty much now or never.

Trailblazers. They are lucky to even get a Division championship this year. But, their future is bright. Getting more playoff experience and playing hard is important as their best players are right in their prime.

Contenders:

Spurs. Can't count them out. Right now, they are not really on a big radar which is perfect for them. They have won 16 of their last 20, and only one of those wins was by less than double figures. Their last 7 games are all against Western Conference teams, including two in 3 days against Houston.

Warriors. This is the team to watch in the playoffs and I anticipate the highest ratings. How good of a coach Steve Kerr is and how good the team really is will show as they will need to be able to finish off seasoned Western Conference playoff teams before blowing out Cleveland/Atlanta in the Finals.

East
Pretenders:

Raptors. Their wins against the Western teams are around the same as wins on the road, not enough. Second round exit.

Wizards. They can't do it on the road either. They shouldn't get past the Bulls in the first round provided the playoff picture doesn't change.

Cavaliers. They are not as good as they think they are. They have done a great job the second half of the season, but during that time, they haven't been able to beat the Hawks.

Bulls. They haven't been able to consistently beat any other great teams, and are still riding the Rose hope train which seems to have passed.

Contenders:

Hawks. How far they will go will be based on how good their coaching is. They win on the road, they win against the West, they have a team formula that is built for championships, but how will they fair when it comes to 7 game series remains to be seen.


I believe a Hawks-Warriors finals is waiting to happen. However, I think a Spurs-Hawks finals would be an amazing series of two franchises who play great team basketball, with Budenholzer being a former Spurs assistant under Popovich making for a great story.

[NovU]

However, I think a Spurs-Hawks finals would be an amazing series of two franchises who play great team basketball, with Budenholzer being a former Spurs assistant under Popovich making for a great story.

I agree. That series will be a fun one, a series between teams with similar concept and system.

But honestly I have a feeling TV rating will sore. Kinda like CLE vs SAS finals. The league will wanna prevent that and have CLE vs GSW finals instead imo, lol.

[Patr1ck]

If they want to conspiracy theory the ratings, they should go with a Clippers/Rockets/Warriors wcf. And I mean 2 of those 3. Up and comers versus LeBron, or Hawks. A Spurs/LeBron finals wouldn't be too bad, imo, either.

Interesting that we talk about this like it's the accepted norm.

[benji]

East:
Contenders: Cavaliers, Hawks. LeBron makes any team a contender. The Hawks are be the best offense/defense combo on the East side.
"Pretenders": Everyone else. Unless Paul George is 90+%.

West:
Contenders: Warriors, Clippers, Spurs. History says the Warriors are unbeatable. But the Clippers and Spurs are near perfect foils. Clippers weakness is Doc Rivers incredibly stupid playing time decisions especially if he plays absurd 12 man rotations considering he really only has 8.5 guys, 9.5 if Nate Robinson wakes up. Spurs weakness will be that they have to have their offense at maximum power or the Warriors will blast them off the floor because they have the same fluid lineup as the Spurs.
Pretenders: The rest, none of them can match the above three both offensively and defensively except the Blazers and they have to face the Clippers or Spurs in the first round who play the same game as them but better and the Blazers may be the road team. Blazers also have worse depth and can't throw as many looks as the Spurs can unless they can find a 7th or 8th man who can come up big. Dallas doesn't have the defense, Houston and Memphis don't have the offense. Memphis is the biggest threat out of the rest, but I don't know how a team with an average offense that's playing six plus games over their pythag can overcome teams with great offenses in a seven game series.

[NovU]

The reason I'm skeptical about Clippers is that their roster hasn't really improved but it's mostly breakout season from DeAndre Jordan that is making an actual difference. However the match up problem will still remain (remember Grizzlies when Zach and Gasol killed him downlow?) against good teams in west. Offense is still all CP3 and there's no one else legit to rely on. I'd rather go with the Rockets at this point than Clippers. Harden minus Dwight won them a lot of games, imagine healthy Dwight back for the playoffs, they'll be scary.

As for the Warriors vs Spurs, this is how it went down couple seasons ago:

phpBB [video]

I like GSW's chances better this year though. Kawhi needs to be at top of his game once again to have any chance imo.

[NovU]

Clippers weakness is Doc Rivers incredibly stupid playing time decisions especially if he plays absurd 12 man rotations considering he really only has 8.5 guys, 9.5 if Nate Robinson wakes up. Spurs weakness will be that they have to have their offense at maximum power or the Warriors will blast them off the floor because they have the same fluid lineup as the Spurs.

I think the Clippers are actually weak in that regard. You say they go 8.5 deep but that depth is quite hollow in comparison. They will have obvious problem against the Warriors. Warriors have 4 guys to throw at Chris Paul whom in reality is the only guy they need to wear down and stop: Iggy, Barnes, Thompson, Draymond, all can do that. In contrast CP3 will exclusively guard Stephen Curry, takes toll on you on both ends. Rivers, Redick, Crawford, Barnes are shit depth to throw at Curry, Thompson will give them all they can handle anyhoo. That makes DeAndre all the more important as the regular season showed he can handle the middle, but that also means Clippers system is predictable and less adjustable, you need flawless CP3 on both ends and also need DeAndre not countered.

The Spurs obviously is better built though, kinda similar to the Warriors. They can wear down and throw different guys/looks at your key guys. I think the Rockets are kinda mysterious figure in that regard. Health and no PG are a concern but they put together some interesting pieces.

[benji]

Last year was Jordan's breakout season as he finally found his place on both ends, he's just pulling down more rebounds this year because Blake Griffin is slowly transitioning into a small forward for some reason.

The offense is the best in the league despite the fact that the entire team has taken the season off except Jordan, if Paul gets two guys a game to play their roles they have a huge advantage. Remember, in the playoffs, the best player in the series is incredibly important. The Grizzlies ran deeper this season with half the team above expectations, but not enough to give the team a decent offense, while basically every Clipper played way below expectations and they still dominated the league offensively.

Randolph and Gasol beat up on a Vinny Del Negro coached team in a series that Blake Griffin decided to skip. The Clippers managed to corral one of the two out of Randolph and Gasol this season in every game, with Spencer freakin Hawes and Glen Davis as the non-Jordan big.

That Spurs team was beating up on a team ranked 11th on offense and 14th on defense, not 3rd on offense and 1st on defense. Their spacing and options alone is so much more elite than that team it's incomparable and they can now match the Spurs strange-lineup for strange-lineup.

The Spurs are the toughest team for the Warriors though because of their equal flexibility. Boris Diaw for example can get the same burn to slow Green that he did against LeBron in the prior two Finals.

On another note the Cavs are really the only team in the East that has any kind of serious chance at winning the Finals. The Hawks simply can't adjust their lineup in as many ways to complete with the West teams which all can. It's the problem of having to play Horford at center. Not that I think they wouldn't put up a good fight. They play too well not to steal a couple games.

[bowdown]

In the West, Golden State, Houston, Spurs and maybe even Memphis are contenders in my eyes.

Clippers' defense is too unreliable.

[Andrew]

Spurs just took down the Warriors in impressive fashion. I could see that series going to seven games, should they meet in the second round or Conference Finals (depending on where the Spurs end up seeded).

[Andrew]

Spurs are right back up there in the second seed now, though the Clippers, Grizzlies, and Rockets could all feasibly nab it from them.

[Mandich]

Spurs are really amazing this year. Start slow, nobody talks about them during the season and now they're the 2nd seed.

They do it every single time.