Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby shadowgrin on Tue Feb 17, 2015 6:06 pm

NovU wrote:LoL @ using street pick up game and 2K video game arguments as evidence. :lol:

Watch last year's Finals where the Spurs dick slapped the Heat so hard that it made LeBron think about life...

...or the Hawks this season or their playoff run last season.

See the build up to the shots made.


Passing for the sake of passing is stupid of course, which I assume is why that 'stats' say more passing doesn't always translate to better basketball.
Just watch the Knicks this season on how they play the triangle.
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby NovU on Tue Feb 17, 2015 6:35 pm

I wasn't arguing passing's bad.

I just wanted to hear benji's version of statistical analysis on passing and its effectiveness .
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby shadowgrin on Tue Feb 17, 2015 6:46 pm

Yeah but that thing you read and mentioned is pretty stupid to do so, whoever did it probably didn't take context and situation into account.
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby NovU on Tue Feb 17, 2015 7:19 pm

Not really. It was actually informative, debunks people mindlessly raving about needs of 'ball movement' without taking context and situation into account.
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby shadowgrin on Tue Feb 17, 2015 7:38 pm

So did those stats take those variables into account?
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby NovU on Tue Feb 17, 2015 7:47 pm

Don't be mistaken. Again, I am not against passing, just wanted to share this info whether you find it stupid or not.

- "more pass" = "better efficiency" is False: (Number of pass is not relevant)
- for each additional dribble, "chance of scoring" decreases = True

Obviously if a pass can generate 'less dribble' shot attempt, it's good. If not, it's bad. (Might as well give Kobe his ball rather than move ball around. :P ) You could almost say passes are to generate less dribble shots.




What I'm actually interested to find out is, if this holds true for good teams like Spurs(or Shaq/Kobe's Lakers) and bad teams like Jazz or 76ers. Study on # of dribble/passes in relation to scoring efficiency on team basis actually would be cool.



Was fun reading benji's take on the issue tho. You always learn something.
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby shadowgrin on Tue Feb 17, 2015 7:51 pm

I'm not questioning you though whether your opinion is stupid or not, I'm questioning your source on how he came to his conclusion based in the stat he gathered or referenced from. For all we know he used some time cube calculations on his data.
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby NovU on Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:03 pm

For all I know what he did was simply calculating offensive efficiency based on number of pass and dribble. I wish I could give you the link to it but was long time ago and I don't recall where.
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby NovU on Tue Feb 17, 2015 9:05 pm

I couldn't find original article that I read but a quick google led me to this.

http://www.82games.com/dribbles.htm

Also important to note is that we didn't detect an obvious trend of the points per possession getting better with more touches,

The numbers though show that the worst efficiency comes with the most dribbles, so over-dribbling can be a real problem: on 6+ dribbles the league as a whole shoots a woeful .398 FG% and averages a meek 81.5 points per 100 possessions.


And...

So Ball Movement Advocates -- here's your proof: the faster the ball is moving from one player to another, the better the results overall!
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby shadowgrin on Tue Feb 17, 2015 10:42 pm

Also important to note is that we didn't detect an obvious trend of the points per possession getting better with more touches,

Then again...
Of course there are notable variations on these numbers -- both frequency and efficiency -- from team to team.

The only thing conclusive, at least for me, from the first part of the article where those quotes came from is their median and average of the touches they gathered to find a league wide trend.


So Ball Movement Advocates -- here's your proof: the faster the ball is moving from one player to another, the better the results overall!
benji wrote:Passing the ball is faster than dribbling it somewhere, it forces defensive rotations to be faster.

Same thing.


Interesting this...
One interesting aspect is that turnovers didn't increase with a higher number of touches per second, so the idea that "frantic" movement and passing is dangerous seems misplaced.

My contention with this is that a turnover means the end of possession and end of touches, so if the touches keep increasing it makes sense that the turnovers won't increase because the team still has the damn ball.


at a glance suggests that when a player is holding the ball for more than four seconds he's costing his team. In truth since in the beginning of a possession the initial ball handler may well use a lot of time, it's likely that holding the ball for more than a second without some kind of action (dribble, pass, shot) is a bad thing!

Makes me wonder if Mike D'Antoni has a similar thinking with this in his SSOL system.


Of course players who are excellent dribblers and penetrators also tend to want the ball in their hands a lot, which is why we may find in our "chemistry experiments" series that having too many ace dribblers in a five man unit may be overkill, just as the Knicks are having trouble adjusting to a Marbury-Francis backcourt.

lol always good for a laugh that combo.
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby NovU on Tue Feb 17, 2015 11:11 pm

Ur Boi Bangs Chol wrote:
Also important to note is that we didn't detect an obvious trend of the points per possession getting better with more touches,

Then again...
Of course there are notable variations on these numbers -- both frequency and efficiency -- from team to team.

The only thing conclusive, at least for me, from the first part of the article where those quotes came from is their median and average of the touches they gathered to find a league wide trend.

Me too, to certain extent. Kinda why I stated it'd be nice to have individual stats for each teams like Spurs, Lakers, and 76ers.

Ur Boi Bangs Chol wrote:
One interesting aspect is that turnovers didn't increase with a higher number of touches per second, so the idea that "frantic" movement and passing is dangerous seems misplaced.

My contention with this is that a turnover means the end of possession and end of touches, so if the touches keep increasing it makes sense that the turnovers won't increase because the team still has the damn ball.

I am assuming that's where an author took 'Frequency'(Freq.) in as part of observation.
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby benji on Wed Feb 18, 2015 3:33 pm

Spree#8 wrote:Um... what? The Sixers are an offensive disaster. Their defense is ranked 12th in the league, according to basketball-reference.

Sorry about that, looked at the wrong ranking.

air gordon wrote:So when's the next hoops summit? Rewatched the one from last year. Worth a watch for sure. Stan van gundy, Brian colangelo, brad Stevens, Steve Kerr, a few numbers guys were on it. Svg in a way is on barkleys train of thought but expresses it better

SVG like Barkley is funny in that his execution is all supported by "stats" even if he's against them personally. JVG is the same way.

NovU wrote:LoL @ using street pick up game and 2K video game arguments as evidence. :lol:

I didn't say that, I used it so you could show yourself how the concept works in practice without having to find ten people to be your own personal puppets.

NovU wrote:Me too, to certain extent. Kinda why I stated it'd be nice to have individual stats for each teams like Spurs, Lakers, and 76ers.

http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/team/passing/

http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/team/catchshoot/

http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/team/possessions/
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby koberulz on Wed Feb 18, 2015 4:47 pm

Ur Boi Bangs Chol wrote:
One interesting aspect is that turnovers didn't increase with a higher number of touches per second, so the idea that "frantic" movement and passing is dangerous seems misplaced.

My contention with this is that a turnover means the end of possession and end of touches, so if the touches keep increasing it makes sense that the turnovers won't increase because the team still has the damn ball.

"Touches" stop at the end of a possession, but so do "seconds". It would have an effect, because generally one player brings the ball up the floor and that counts for a larger percentage of "seconds" on shorter possessions, but it's not measuring touches total.
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby shadowgrin on Wed Feb 18, 2015 9:45 pm

Their data doesn't count players bringing the ball up the floor though as they mentioned.
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby koberulz on Thu Feb 19, 2015 5:42 am

If that is the case, then (I get a 404 error when clicking the link), it completely severs any relation between touches per second and length of possession.
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby shadowgrin on Thu Feb 19, 2015 5:03 pm

82games.com is down for me too, seems like it's the whole site.


To finally end this confusion...

Their TO data is the incidence of turnovers for a set of teams grouped into number of touches and not the turnovers caused by the rate of touches.

Something like:
Teams with an average rate of 2 touches : they all averaged a rate of 1.0 TO
Teams with a average rate of 4 touches : they all averaged a rate of 0.8 TO
...and so on and not:
An average rate of 2 touches usually results in an average rate of 1.0 TO for any team
An average rate of 4 touches usually results in an average rate of 0.8 TO for any team
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby NovU on Thu Feb 19, 2015 5:08 pm

What happened to 82games.com btw? I guess the owner doesn't care about the site no more. Didn't he say before that he got hired by some team so he can't share anymore than general 82games stats but he was willing to keep the site up for public?
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby shadowgrin on Thu Feb 19, 2015 5:30 pm

Site owner works for the Mavs, won a ring with them in 2011.
Lets other admins keep the site up.
They could just be doing maintenance that's why the site is currently down.
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