ESPN Insider Projections

[benji]

Since they've got the playoff teams up:
1. Heat: 54-28
2. Bulls: 50-32
3. Nets: 50-32
4. Pacers: 49-33
5. Pistons: 49-33
6. Hawks: 45-37
7. Knicks: 37-45
8. Raptors: 37-45

1. Spurs: 60-22
2. Clippers: 54-28
3. Rockets: 54-28
4. Thunder: 51-31
5. Timberwolves: 51-31
6. Grizzlies: 49-33
7. Nuggets: 44-38
8. Mavericks: 44-38

[JaoSming]

7. Knicks: 37-45
8. Raptors: 37-45

lol, what. 8 games under .500, 2 teams, playoffs, what.

[Andrew]

I wouldn't be surprised if the Heat reached the 60 win plateau again, with the Bulls, Nets and Pacers in a close race around the 55 win mark. Also, the Timberwolves with over 50 wins while the Warriors are nowhere to be found in the top eight? Not too sure about that.

[The X]

Sure you didn't get that from NBA 2K? That looks more like the parity we come to expect from Association mode.

[benji]

It's because of the bell curve in modeling. What happens in reality is teams "give up" so the superior teams will run up the score while most teams that are down at 15-25 wins really could win more games if they tried but there's no point. Injuries have the same effect. Simulations assume neither of these happen. (Actually, that they don't happen unexpectedly.)

You could probably add four wins to every team at 50+ except the Spurs*, two wins to every team 43-50 and then the do the corresponding opposite to every team under 37 wins and every team under 30 wins. Then it would look more like you would expect (for the unreleased teams I just reversed the top teams records to fake a poor record and they're in random order**):
1. Heat: 58-24
2. Bulls: 54-28
3. Nets: 54-28
4. Pacers: 51-31
5. Pistons: 51-31
6. Hawks: 47-35
7. Knicks: 37-45
8. Raptors: 37-45
9. Bucks: 35-47
10. Wizards: 33-49
11. Cavaliers: 31-51
12. Magic: 31-51
13. Bobcats: 28-54
14. Celtics: 24-58
15. Sixers: 18-64

1. Spurs: 60-22
2. Clippers: 58-24
3. Rockets: 58-24
4. Thunder: 55-27
5. Timberwolves: 55-27
6. Grizzlies: 51-31
7. Nuggets: 46-36
8. Mavericks: 46-36
9. Warriors: 36-46
10. Blazers: 36-46
11. Lakers: 31-51
12. Pelicans: 27-55
13. Suns: 24-58
14. Kings: 24-58
15. Jazz: 20-62

*Because they're already almost on the upper bound of what you'd want to ever project at. (Only seven teams in NBA history, EVER, have had scoring margins over 10 points a game. The number over nine is not much larger, and most seasons nine falls at about 61-63 wins.)
**You can actually use the player profiles posted earlier to "guess" at the projections within a game or two. At least they've matched up with the 16 released so far pretty closely.

(As for Live and 2Ks modeling, look what they use for inputs...)

[Andrew]

I still think they're sleeping on the Warriors, given their performance last year and the fact they're bringing back pretty much the same roster, plus Iguodala.

[benji]

Pelton has them at 30.7 WARP which should be like 36-38 wins in his other system if the others are anything to go by. The bench is quite weak by his evaluation.

LeBron and Wade have 34.3 WARP by themselves lol

[benji]

The rest of the teams from Insider:
9. Cavaliers: 37-45
10. Wizards: 35-47
11. Bobcats: 32-50
12. Bucks: 31-51
13. Celtics: 29-53
14. Sixers: 25-57
15. Magic: 23-59

9.Warriors: 42-40
10. Blazers: 41-41
11. Pelicans: 41-41
12. Lakers: 35-47
13. Jazz: 34-48
14. Kings: 28-54
15. Suns: 20-62

[benji]

Vegas:
1. Heat: 60-22
2. Bulls: 57-25
3. Pacers: 54-28
4. Nets: 53-29
5. Knicks: 50-32
6. Wizards: 42-40
7. Pistons: 41-41
8. Cavaliers: 41-41
9. Hawks: 40-42
10. Raptors: 37-45
11. Bucks: 29-53
12. Celtics: 28-54
13. Bobcats: 28-54
14. Magic: 25-57
15. Sixers: 17-65

1. Clippers: 57-25
2. Spurs: 56-26
3. Rockets: 55-27
4. Thunder: 51-31
5. Warriors: 50-32
6. Grizzlies: 49-33
7. Nuggets: 47-35
8. Mavericks: 44-38
9. Timberwolves: 41-41
10. Pelicans: 40-42
11. Blazers: 39-43
12. Lakers: 34-48
13. Kings: 32-50
14. Jazz: 28-54
15. Suns: 22-60

[JaoSming]

oh gawd the tanking

[scubilete]

hmmmm,

I think they should end this way

1. Bulls 58-24
2. Heat 56-26
3. Nets 55-27
4. Pacers 55-27
5. Knicks 54-28
6. Pistons 49-33
7. Bucks 43-39
8. Cavs 40-42

1. Spurs 57-25
2. Thunder 55-27
3. Clippers 54-28
4. Rockets 52-30
5. Warriors 48-34
6. Grizzlies 44-38
7. Lakers 41-41
8. Nuggets 40-42

I know, I know, but this is my list, lol

[Jackal]

Damn, a Steve Scub sighting, nice!

[rise]

I just died laughing at the thought of the Pistons winning 50 games with Brandon Jennings at the point.

[scubilete]

If they stay healthy, Pistons should be able to do it, 43 - 48 wins I would say.

Damn, a Steve Scub sighting, nice!