Stats: '12 Review/'13 Projections

[benji]

Actually finished stats this year so...have a few top tens.

At least 12.5% of minutes played.

Top charge drawers:

Code: Select all

o'neal,jermaine   c   bos   2.3%
barea,jose   pg   min   2.1%
jeffries,jared   pf/c   nyk   1.8%
johnson,ivan   pf/sf   atl   1.5%
price,ronnie   pg/sg   pho   1.4%
cousins,demarcus   c   sac   1.3%
lowry,kyle   pg   hou   1.3%
samuels,samardo   c   cle   1.3%
fisher,derek   pg   lal   1.2%
ilyasova,ersan   pf   mil   1.1%
collison,nick   pf/c   okc   1.1%

Top defenders (one method):

Code: Select all

paul,chris   pg   lac   64%
howard,dwight   c   orl   64%
sanders,larry   c   mil   62%
iguodala,andre   sf   phi   62%
ibaka,serge   pf   okc   61%
harrellson,josh   c/pf   nyk   61%
andersen,chris   c   den   60%
allen,tony   sg   mem   60%
gaines,sundiata   pg/sg   njn   60%
james,lebron   sf   mia   59%

Top dunkers:

Code: Select all

mcgee,javale   c   den   10.0%
howard,dwight   c   orl   7.0%
faried,kenneth   pf   den   6.9%
mcgee,javale   c   was   6.8%
wright,brandan   c   dal   6.4%
griffin,blake   pf/c   lac   6.4%
jordan,deandre   c   lac   5.9%
chandler,tyson   c   nyk   5.9%
vesely,jan   pf   was   5.9%
thompson,tristan   pf   cle   5.9%

FG% on unassisted shots:

Code: Select all

nash,steve   pg   pho   .488
paul,chris   pg   lac   .428
james,lebron   sf   mia   .417
parker,tony   pg   sas   .415
howard,dwight   c   orl   .402
westbrook,russell   pg   okc   .396
teague,jeff   pg   atl   .385
lin,jeremy   pg   nyk   .380
jack,jarrett   pg   noh   .380
dragic,goran   pg   hou   .378

Unassisted points per 36:

Code: Select all

westbrook,russell   pg   okc   18.4
rose,derrick   pg   chi   17.6
paul,chris   pg   lac   16.5
james,lebron   sf   mia   16.4
parker,tony   pg   sas   15.5
irving,kyrie   pg   cle   15.0
bryant,kobe   sg   lal   14.7
lin,jeremy   pg   nyk   14.6
anthony,carmelo   sf   nyk   14.5
wade,dwyane   sg   mia   14.4

MVP "Score"

Code: Select all

love,kevin   pf/c   min   21.3%
durant,kevin   sf   okc   20.4%
james,lebron   sf   mia   20.2%
griffin,blake   pf/c   lac   19.2%
westbrook,russell   pg   okc   17.9%
jennings,brandon   pg   mil   17.8%
monroe,greg   c   det   17.8%
lee,david   pf   gsw   17.7%
gasol,pau   pf/c   lal   17.6%
paul,chris   pg   lac   17.5%

Sixth Man "Score"

Code: Select all

williams,louis   pg/sg   phi   78%
young,thaddeus   pf   phi   61%
terry,jason   sg   dal   54%
gibson,taj   pf   chi   34%
korver,kyle   sf/sg   chi   19%
lucas,john   pg   chi   13%
johnson,ivan   pf/sf   atl   12%
harden,james   sg/sf   okc   12%
asik,omer   c   chi   12%
wright,brandan   c   dal   12%

Top Scorers:

Code: Select all

james,lebron   sf   mia   15.8
durant,kevin   sf   okc   15.6
bryant,kobe   sg   lal   13.8
wade,dwyane   sg   mia   13.4
love,kevin   pf/c   min   13.3
ginobili,manu   sg   sas   13.1
nowitzki,dirk   pf   dal   13.1
westbrook,russell   pg   okc   12.7
harden,james   sg/sf   okc   12.5
irving,kyrie   pg   cle   12.3

Top Jumper Scorers:

Code: Select all

novak,steve   pf   nyk   10.6
curry,stephen   pg   gsw   9.0
durant,kevin   sf   okc   7.8
lucas,john   pg   chi   7.6
green,gerald   sf   njn   7.5
nowitzki,dirk   pf   dal   7.3
bryant,kobe   sg   lal   7.3
pargo,jannero   pg   atl   7.1
neal,gary   sg/pg   sas   7.0
johnson,joe   sg/sf   atl   6.9

Top Two-Point Jumper Scorers:

Code: Select all

bryant,kobe   sg   lal   5.3
garnett,kevin   c   bos   5.2
nowitzki,dirk   pf   dal   5.1
durant,kevin   sf   okc   4.7
jefferson,al   c   uta   4.6
aldridge,lamarcus   pf   por   4.6
james,lebron   sf   mia   4.4
hamilton,richard   sg   chi   4.4
bargnani,andrea   c   tor   4.3
smith,jason   pf/c   noh   4.3

Top Three-Point Jumper Scorers:

Code: Select all

novak,steve   pf   nyk   6.5
korver,kyle   sf/sg   chi   3.9
babbitt,luke   sf/pf   por   3.7
anderson,ryan   pf   orl   3.7
curry,stephen   pg   gsw   3.6
bonner,matt   pf   sas   3.5
mason,roger   sg   was   3.5
miller,mike   sg   mia   3.5
billups,chauncey   sg/pg   lac   3.4
allen,ray   sg   bos   3.3

Top Inside Scorers:

Code: Select all

splitter,tiago   c   sas   7.9
pekovic,nikola   c   min   7.8
howard,dwight   c   orl   7.7
griffin,blake   pf/c   lac   7.1
monroe,greg   c   det   7.0
hibbert,roy   c   ind   6.2
blair,dejuan   pf   sas   6.1
wright,brandan   c   dal   6.0
wade,dwyane   sg   mia   6.0
mcgee,javale   c   was   6.0
koufos,kosta   c   den   6.0

Top Passers:

Code: Select all

nash,steve   pg   pho   23.4%
rondo,rajon   pg   bos   22.2%
calderon,jose   pg   tor   19.2%
paul,chris   pg   lac   14.1%
tinsley,jamaal   pg   uta   13.8%
rubio,ricky   pg   min   13.6%
watson,earl   pg   uta   13.0%
miller,andre   pg/sg   den   12.9%
williams,deron   pg   njn   12.5%
augustin,d.j.   pg   cha   12.5%

Top Ballhandlers:

Code: Select all

nash,steve   pg   pho   135.9
rondo,rajon   pg   bos   128.1
paul,chris   pg   lac   117.5
parker,tony   pg   sas   110.8
calderon,jose   pg   tor   108.1
williams,deron   pg   njn   102.3
tinsley,jamaal   pg   uta   101.7
rose,derrick   pg   chi   101.6
miller,andre   pg/sg   den   100.5
sessions,ramon   pg   cle   97.6
rubio,ricky   pg   min   96.6

Quick and dirty simulator run, last years numbers:
MIA (60-22)
ATL (53-29)
BOS (49-33)
IND (49-33)
NYK (48-34)
CHI (48-34)
MIL (44-38)
TOR (36-46)
----
PHI (36-46)
BRK (35-47)
ORL (33-49)
DET (32-50)
WAS (26-56)
CLE (22-60)
CHA (14-68)

SAS (57-25)
LAL (54-28)
OKC (50-32)
LAC (49-33)
DEN (48-34)
MIN (47-35)
MEM (46-36)
GSW (45-37)
----
UTA (44-38)
PHO (42-40)
DAL (40-42)
NOH (33-49)
SAC (32-50)
HOU (28-54)
POR (28-54)

File to come shortly...

[shadowgrin]

Stats.
WATCH THE GAMES!

[NovU]

Appreciate the work. I think benji wins every year if we had a basketball nerd award annually in our forum.

East looks like a ruin, Toronto making the playoffs with 36-46 record lol.

[benji]

If someone wants projections, just post the minutes/minutes share for each player here. (i.e. Joel Anthony plays 40 mpg at center or Joel Anthony plays 85% of minutes at center, etc.)

I'm not as fond of these as others in the past because of the noise from not just only one year of data, but only 66 games at that. But also because I barely put much thought into it and just created 9-10 man rotations in most instances.

Because of that lockout thing, the above cut-off is wrong, 12.5% is too low, it should be 15.5%.

Probably will have to split the full file into two google docs.

[NovU]

Steve Nash is truly an amazing player. Kobe seriously needs to learn to play off the ball.

[_Steve_]

Sundiata Gaines being that high on the top defenders list surprises me pretty much.
Great effort!

[NovU]

Good find.
Sundiata's DRtg is 107 on a terrible defensive team that had 109.6 DRtg. benji, can you elaborate on this? It seems he was just one of better defensive players on a horrific defensive team.

[The X]

Where does Andrew Bogut fit in as well as charge takers?

[benji]

Where does Andrew Bogut fit in as well as charge takers?

He didn't qualify minutes wise, but in those minutes he did play he drew charges on 1.5% of opponents possessions. Going back to a couple healthier seasons he got 1.2% in 2009-10 and 1.4% in 2008-09 so that number isn't much of an outlier.

Good find.
Sundiata's DRtg is 107 on a terrible defensive team that had 109.6 DRtg. benji, can you elaborate on this? It seems he was just one of better defensive players on a horrific defensive team.

First of all, I should note that Gaines played only 25% of minutes and I've found that defensive numbers below 33% can often be noisy and inconsistent from year to year. Back in 2009-10 when he played only 5% of minutes his defense wasn't anything special, he was indeed below average, so it's probably just a fluke.

Second, note that Gaines ripped steals on 3.7% of opponents possessions, that's a pretty high number. If he did that consistently he'd be one of the five or ten best thieves in league history.

That said, here's various defensive numbers for the Nets players.

Charges drawn:

Code: Select all

williams,shelden   0.8%
wallace,gerald   0.7%
stevenson,deshaw   0.6%
farmar,jordan   0.4%
humphries,kris   0.4%
williams,jordan   0.4%
williams,deron   0.4%
gaines,sundiata   0.3%
morrow,anthony   0.3%
williams,shawne   0.2%
green,gerald   0.1%
petro,johan   0.1%
brooks,marshon   0.0%

Counterpart turnovers forced:

Code: Select all

gaines,sundiata   18.1
williams,shawne   15.3
stevenson,deshaw   15.3
williams,deron   14.1
humphries,kris   13.7
farmar,jordan   13.5
williams,shelden   13.1
petro,johan   12.8
brooks,marshon   12.6
williams,jordan   12.5
green,gerald   12.3
wallace,gerald   11.7
morrow,anthony   11.5

Counterpart missed shots forced:

Code: Select all

green,gerald   56.6
gaines,sundiata   53.6
stevenson,deshaw   52.4
williams,shawne   51.0
morrow,anthony   50.4
petro,johan   50.2
williams,deron   49.4
williams,shelden   47.9
humphries,kris   47.5
brooks,marshon   47.0
farmar,jordan   45.4
wallace,gerald   44.2
williams,jordan   42.2

Stops per counterpart possessions:

Code: Select all

gaines,sundiata   59.8%
green,gerald   50.1%
williams,deron   47.3%
wallace,gerald   47.2%
williams,shawne   46.3%
humphries,kris   45.9%
williams,shelden   45.7%
morrow,anthony   45.1%
stevenson,deshaw   45.0%
brooks,marshon   44.6%
farmar,jordan   43.1%
petro,johan   40.7%
williams,jordan   40.4%

Stops per 36:

Code: Select all

gaines,sundiata   10.0
williams,deron   8.3
humphries,kris   8.1
williams,shelden   8.1
stevenson,deshaw   8.1
green,gerald   8.0
petro,johan   7.6
wallace,gerald   7.6
farmar,jordan   7.4
morrow,anthony   7.4
williams,shawne   7.3
williams,jordan   7.3
brooks,marshon   7.2

Stops per opponent possessions:

Code: Select all

gaines,sundiata   14.0%
williams,deron   11.5%
humphries,kris   11.0%
stevenson,deshaw   11.0%
wallace,gerald   10.5%
green,gerald   10.3%
williams,shelden   10.2%
farmar,jordan   10.2%
morrow,anthony   10.1%
brooks,marshon   9.8%
williams,shawne   9.7%
petro,johan   9.2%
williams,jordan   9.2%

Estimated points per possession allowed with player on the court:

Code: Select all

gaines,sundiata   104
green,gerald   105
stevenson,deshaw   106
petro,johan   107
williams,shawne   107
morrow,anthony   107
williams,deron   107
humphries,kris   107
williams,shelden   107
brooks,marshon   107
farmar,jordan   108
wallace,gerald   108
williams,jordan   109

Defensive sum metric:

Code: Select all

gaines,sundiata   8.4%
williams,deron   5.4%
green,gerald   5.2%
humphries,kris   5.0%
wallace,gerald   5.0%
stevenson,deshaw   4.9%
williams,shelden   4.7%
morrow,anthony   4.6%
williams,shawne   4.5%
farmar,jordan   4.4%
brooks,marshon   4.3%
petro,johan   3.7%
williams,jordan   3.7%

[NovU]

Cool. Though the team as whole was awful in defense, I guess he was a capable defender.

[benji]

Over a third of the way through the season, so thought I'd compare my crappy simple projections against the monte carlo probabilities:
Eastern Conference
CHA +9
BRK +8
NYK +6
CLE +4
ORL +2
DET +2
PHI +1
CHI -3
MIL -3
MIA -4
ATL -4
IND -4
TOR -4
WAS -5
BOS -9

Western Conference
HOU +19
LAC +11
OKC +8
POR +8
MEM +6
GSW +2
SAS +1
DEN -1
SAC -2
UTA -3
MIN -6
NOH -6
DAL -7
LAL -10
PHO -11

[benji]

Here's Hollinger for comparison:
Eastern Conference
ORL +18
NYK +10
CHA +7
DET +7
MIL +4
ATL +4
CHI +2
TOR -1
BRK -3
IND -7
CLE -8
PHI -8
MIA -8
BOS -8
WAS -17

Western Conference
LAC +13
HOU +10
POR +9
GSW +7
PHO +7
OKC +4
MEM +2
SAC -1
SAS -2
MIN -2
UTA -3
NOH -3
DAL -9
LAL -9
DEN -12

[NovU]

Surprised with your ORL rank. Thought would be far off. Seems like Hollinger and you didn't take James Harden into account though. And yeah Boston is just horrid.