2012 U.S. Presidential Election

[benji]

Final Iowa Results:

Mitt Romney
30,015 24.6%
—
Rick Santorum
30,007 24.5
—
Ron Paul
26,219 21.4
—
Newt Gingrich
16,251 13.3
—
Rick Perry
12,604 10.3
—
Michele Bachmann
6,073 5.0
—
Jon Huntsman
745 0.6
—
No Preference
135 0.1
—
Other
117 0.1
—
Herman Cain
58 0.1
—
Buddy Roemer
31 0.0

[benji]

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/c ... match-game

1. Ron Paul: 89% (8/11 issues)
2. Rick Perry: 48% (3/11 issues)
3. Michelle Bachmann: 39% (2/11 issues)

[Lamrock]

Cool find. I got:

1. Barack Obama: 55.9% (4/11 issues)
2. Ron Paul: 53.6% (3/11 issues)
3. Jon Huntsman: 39.7% (2/11 issues)

[shadowgrin]

I'm no US citizen but...

Default sliders:
1. Ron Paul 60.1% (5/11)
2. Jon Huntsman 53.4% (4/11)
3. Barack Obama 40.1% (2/11)

Adjusted all sliders to more importance except for immigration and climate change (default) and gay marriage (less):
1. Ron Paul 56% (5/11)
2. Jon Hunstman 50.9% (4/11)
3. Rick Perry 37.4% (2/11)

[benji]

Another that provided yet again shocking results for benji:
http://www.votesmart.org/voteeasy/

1. Gary Johnson: 90%
2. Ron Paul: 81%

[Patr1ck]

I got 81 and 71 with the same candidates who apparently lack courage according to that site. Who the hell is Gary Johnson?

[benji]

The best candidate in the race. Former two-term Governor of New Mexico who was deliberately excluded from the GOP debates and so is now making a run for the Libertarian nomination.

"Lacks courage" means they haven't answered the Project Vote Smart survey.

[Lamrock]

The mention of Johnson entering the race reminds me that it pretty much means Barack Obama wins New Mexico. With the election a mere nine and a half months away, here's how I think Romney/Obama is looking, based on polls, trends and 2008 results:



Obama has to win the popular vote in this scenario (probably 50-48), and takes the electoral college 315-223. Tied race puts NC and probably NE-2 to Romney but not enough to swing the election. They are pretty much tied in national polls, but I don't think the Republicans are winning this year.

[benji]

No one sane thinks the Republicans are winning. Only a delusional GOP nut thinks they have a chance.

It's why Christie, Jindal, etc. bailed out. Outside of Perry and Huntsman nobody else could mount anything past this year. Same as last year in the general, all Obama.

What matters now is trying to get Gary to double digits and one state, any state. Won't happen, but a dreams a dream.

P.S. I'd be leary about NC and VA.

[Lamrock]

I could see Gary getting double digits in one state, so I suppose there's that. I think VA is trending Democratic still (though Obama won the state by less than he did the popular vote) but I actually had NC and NE-2 as gray toss-ups originally.

Other than seeing how well Herman Cain does in South Carolina and hoping Paul wins a couple states, it looks like the primaries are pretty much over.

[Patr1ck]

We may have an upset in New Hampshire.

phpBB [video]

[shadowgrin]

You can never go wrong with a pony based economy. Anyone who disagree deserves a boot to the head.

[benji]

[Lamrock]

Alright guys, with Rick Perry dropping out and the media wanting a primary race (i guess santorum won IA now?), does Newtie have a chance in SC? For the same reason I made this thread despite hating all the candidates, i hope Newt wins on saturday. Mirrors in space!

[benji]

I don't know if the media wants a primary race as much as the anti-Romney wing of the Republican Party does.

[Lamrock]

South Carolina Results (99% Reporting):

Newt Gingrich
242,253 40.41% 23 92.0%
---
Mitt Romney
166,877 27.84% 0 0.0%
---
Rick Santorum
101,809 16.98% 0 0.0%
---
Ron Paul
77,872 12.99% 0 0.0%
---
Herman Cain
6,314 1.05% 0 0.0%
---
Rick Perry
2,483 0.41% 0 0.0%
---
Jon Huntsman, Jr.
1,160 0.19% 0 0.0%
---
Michele Bachmann
493 0.08% 0 0.0%
---
Gary Johnson
213 0.04% 0 0.0%

Newt vs. Barack: The January Prediction Map

[el badman]

That NBC debate certainly confirmed that Paul is the only one who's not completely brain dead in the lot. The others' responses regarding foreign relations were beyond retardation.

[Lamrock]

Has anybody been to a caucus before? Not that I think it would do anything, but it might be kind of fun to caucus for Paul next month.

[benji]

Has anybody been to a caucus before? Not that I think it would do anything, but it might be kind of fun to caucus for Paul next month.

Forgot to reply to this.

It's not like voting, you have to literally stand in a room. And that's all you do, there's no real ballot. And then that standing means nothing because delegates are chosen at the convention.

If you want to support Paul then contact the campaign and let them know you want to be a delegate to the state convention and they'll help out.

[shadowgrin]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 75930.html

It was a bitter and volatile campaign, with accusations of inconsistency, incompetence and scandal filling the air. Candidates competed to portray themselves as the true conservative choice, while voters fretted about the economy and war threatened in the Middle East.

[benji]

Santorum has quit.

I for one welcome our new robot overlords.

[Lamrock]

lol watch Newt go back up in the polls

[benji]

He will, simply because how much of the GOP dislikes Romney. But he has barely any campaign in place and pulled what little resoruces he had out of the few states he was in.

Romney and Paul are the only ones who have had campaigns in place for the entire race.

Paul might move up more in the polls, he had passed the free falling Newt recently. He's going to soak up a good number of those supposed Santorum delegates because of logistics.

[Lamrock]

Because I'm a nerd, here's a map of where the polls stand...

Obama 313 | Romney 191 | Tossup 34



Really doubt Florida goes for Obama though, and Ohio should end up being pretty close. I think Romney ends up taking Florida and North Carolina, but loses Iowa, Virginia and the election.

[benji]

What polls?

I've been leaning towards this last couple months: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_p ... ?mapid=jhe
A 30-40 vote win like Bush in 2004 seems more likely than a 1996 or 2008 style drubbing.

This is probably a best-case Romney scenario right now: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_p ... ?mapid=jhf