2011-12 Season Projections

I know the offseason has only been around for a week, but we're about a week from the season starting as well. And now that Chris Paul has moved things should settle down for a bit. (We're not counting the Dwight situation which goes back and forth by the day.) I'm trying to put together my database to do the projections after skipping last year. (Plus there's an epic new fancy model, after two years of research, for this that's far better...)

I'll gut pick the two top seeds though. Miami and Oklahoma City.

Just for reference if anyone wants to do wins and losses, you can do 82 games and we get what it means, but if you want the prorated:
70-12 = 56-10
65-17 = 52-14
60-22 = 48-18
55-27 = 44-22
50-32 = 40-26
45-37 = 36-30
40-42 = 32-34
35-47 = 28-38
30-52 = 24-42
25-57 = 20-46
20-62 = 16-50
15-67 = 12-54
10-72 = 8-58

Last edited by benji on Thu Dec 15, 2011 8:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Im saying

West


OKC
Dallas
Lakers
Memphis
Clippers
Portland
Denver
Utah

[Nick]

East:
1. Miami
2. Chicago
3. Boston (but will crash 1st round in playoffs)
4. New York
5. Orlando (with them holding onto Dwight)
6. Philadelphia
7. Atlanta (yep)
8. Indiana
---
9. New Jersey
10. Washington (with Wall averaging 20 and 10 or close to it)
11. Milwaukee
12. Toronto
13. Detroit
14. Cleveland
15. Charlotte

West:
1. Oklahoma City (60+ wins... or whatever the equivilent is in a 66 game season)
2. Lakers
3. Clippers
4. Dallas (the loss of chandler will hurt them)
5. San Antonio
6. Portland
7. Grizzlies
8. Houston
---
9. Utah
10. Golden State
11. Denver
12. Sacramento
13. Phoenix
14. Minnesota
15. New Orleans

I actually can't see ANY of the west teams having any horrific losing records.

And i think Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, Derrick Rose and LeBron James (if heat get like 65 wins) will be the main MVP candidates.

Irving for ROY.

Howard will probably get DPOY again. Tyson Chandler could contend it if he's healthy all season.

Kyle Lowry for MIP. Heaps of contenders though.

Either Scott Brooks or Eric Spoelstra for COY, depending on which team has the better record.

James Harden or Jason Terry for 6th man.

In the playoffs i think all the older teams like Celtics, Lakers, Spurs, Mavs... i think they will all get knocked out early due to fatigue from a compacted season... and it'll be MIA vs OKC in the finals.

Last edited by Nick on Sat Dec 24, 2011 5:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.

East:

1. Miami - 56-10
2. Chicago - 52-14
3. Atlanta
4. Orlando
5. New York
6. Boston
7. Philadelphia
8. Indiana - 30-36
-
9. Toronto
10. Milwaukee
11. Detroit
12. Washington
13. Cleveland
14. New Jersey
15. Charlotte - 14-52


West:

1. Oklahoma - 52-14
2. San Antonio
3. Lakers
4. Grizzlies
5. Dallas
6. Clippers
7. Portland
8. Utah 34-32
--
9. Sacramento
10. Houston
11. Golden State
12. Phoenix
13. New Orleans
14. Minnesota
15. Denver - 15-51

EAST

1-Miami
2-Chicago
3-Boston
4-New York
5-Orlando
6-Philadelphia
7-Indiana
8-Atlanta

WEST

1-OKC
2-Dallas
3-San Antonio
4-Lakers
5-Memphis
6-Clippers
7-Utah
8-Minnesota

8-Minnesota

Bias much?

[rise]

---

updated rankings are listed later

Last edited by rise on Sat Dec 24, 2011 1:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Here's some very interesting projections because of players trades and signing and waiverings.

Final Eastern Conference Standings

1.Miami-Great back up addition for Lebron James as the Heat signed Shane Battier
2.Chicago-Finally got themselves a real shooting gaurd in Big Rip Hamilton as he'll be a starter
3.Boston-Even though they loose Big Baby, they added veteran player Chris Wilcox who should be a decent player off the bench
4.Orlando-Resigned a very good three point shooter in Jason ricahrdson which is the 2nd best thing they've done this off season while still retaining the big man in the middle Dwight Howard
5.New York-With the addition of Tyson Chandler they add toughness, complete rebounding and shot blocking which is what the knicks lacked last year
6.Indiana-Surprise, surprise suprise!!!With the addition of a good jump shooting big man in David west the pacers should finish 2nd or 3rd in the central and will probably have to fight for 2nd place with milwaukee and should earn a playoff spot when all is said and done. Darren Collison will be one of the top pg's in the east with 7 to 9 assists a game.
7.I was very hesitant to put this team at #7, but sorry, i have to put Atlanta in this spot as the hawks didn't improve much this off season, but they still have Joe Johnson, Josh Smith and Al Horford and is probably better than the pacers, but i just can't put them above indiana, because the hawks will finish third in the southeast.
8.Maybe, big maybe, very big maybe, philedelphia could be #8, but they'll have to fight, fight fight for this 8th spot between 2 or 3 teams.
________________________
Eastern conference standings continued
9.Milwaukee
10.Detroit
11.Charlotte
12.New Jersey
13.Washington
14.Toronto
15.Cleveland-Now that Baron Davis is gone, who knows if the cavaliers will even win 10 games this year, thumbs down to everything except the Casspi trade that the cavaliers did this offseason.
_____________________________
Western conference standings
1.Dallas-They lost Chandler, but should be one of the top teams
2.Oklahoma City-Yep, thunder should be great this year
3.San Antonio-Their old, but their veterans should carry this team particularly, Tony Parker and Manu Ginoboli
4.lakers-Couldn't get things done much this off season but should still win the pacific, if Kobe continues to be a laker, the loss of Lamar Odom should shake things up for this team
5.Clippers, this high? Very much should should have a nice record this year with their new additions
6.Memphis-Lots of talent
7.Portland-Still a good team
8.Denver, because of the loss of Chris Paul from the hornets, denver should still be good enough to finish at the 8th spot.
9.Houston-I don't think they have enough this year to make the playoffs
10.Phoenix-Lost Vince carter, will Steve Nash even get 7 assists a game?
11.Minnesota-Decent team with a nice starting small forward that should carry them if he doesn't get injured much
12.Sacramento
13.Golden State
14.Utah
15.New Orleans-With the loss of Chris Paul, this team is going to struggle to win too much, maybe 25 games this yeasr
__________________________
Too early to predict conference champions for me or nba champions, but these are my standings.

West
1. Dallas
2. OKC
3. LAL
4. LAC
5. SAS
6. MEM
7. POR
8. NO

9. MIN
10. GSW
11. HOU
12. UTA
13. PHO
14. DEN
15. SAC

East
1. MIA
2. BOS
3. NYK
4. CHI
5. ORL
6. ATL
7. IND
8. NJ

9. CHA
10. WAS
11. CLE
12. MIL
13. TOR
14. DET

Last edited by Mavs4Life on Sat Dec 24, 2011 3:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

For the Bulls it's more or less what kind of points Boozer and Rip put up, if they can step up and get shots to fall when they need to to get pressure off Rose. I can see them being a good team in terms of challenging for the Championship. I look forward to seeing how the Clippers do, they were the big movers this off season.

its very hard to predict because there are only 66 games.everything can happen.i predict an upset or a darkhorse team

EAST

1. Heat
2. Bulls
3. Celtics
4. Knicks
5. Magic
6. Pacers
7. Sixers
8. Hawks
--
9. Bucks
10. Bobcats
11. Pistons
12. Wizards
13. Raptors
14. Nets
15. Cavaliers

WEST

1. Mavericks
2. Thunder
3. Lakers
4. Grizzlies
5. Spurs
6. Clippers
7. Blazers
8. Suns
--
9. Nuggets
10. Jazz
11. Warriors
12. Rockets
13. Timberwolves
14. Hornets
15. Kings

With rosters as they are now:

East:
1. Miami
2. Chicago
3. Orlando
4. Boston
5. Indiana
6. New York
7. Atlanta
8. Philadelphia
----------
New Jersey
Charlotte
Detroit
Milwaukee
Cleveland
Washington
Toronto

West:
1. Oklahoma City
2. Memphis
3. LA Lakers
4. Portland
5. Dallas
6. San Antonio
7. LA Clippers
8. Denver
----------
Houston
Utah
Phoenix
Golden State
Sacramento
New Orleans
Minnesota

I thought it would be cool to see what the collective NLSC rankings were, so i got my excel hat on and figured it out...

note: i only included the season projections of those who did the full 15 of each conference.

note #2: Mavs4Life only did 14 in the East (he forgot PHI), therefore phi had to come in last for his rankings, so PHI might have a slightly higher average ranking than shown (but nothing significant)

This is how NLSCers (as an overall collective) see the season rankings. (after 1 week of offseason)

East:
1. Miami (avg rank: 1.0)
2. Chicago (avg rank: 2.3)
3. Boston (avg rank: 3.7)
4. New York (avg rank: 4.3)
5. Orlando (avg rank: 4.6)
6. Atlanta (avg rank: 6.0)
7. Indiana (avg rank: 7.1)
8. Philadelphia (avg rank: 8.4)
---
9. Milwaukee (avg rank: 10.3)
10. New Jersey (avg rank 10.4)
11. Washington (avg rank: 11.7)
12. Detroit (avg rank: 11.9)
13. Charlotte (avg rank: 12.1)
14. Toronto (avg rank: 12.6)
15. Cleveland (avg rank: 13.6)

West:
1. Oklahoma City (avg rank: 1.4)
2. Dallas (avg rank: 2.7)
3. Lakers (avg rank: 3.1)
4. San Antonio (avg rank: 4.7)
5. Clippers (avg rank: 4.9)
6. Grizzlies (avg rank: 5.0)
7. Portland (avg rank: 6.1)
8. Houston (avg rank: 10.4)
---
9. Denver (avg rank: 10.9)
10. Golden State (avg rank: 11.1)
10. Utah (avg rank: 11.1)
12. Phoenix (avg rank: 11.4)
13. Sacramento (avg rank: 11.9)
14. Minnesota (avg rank: 12.6)
14. New Orleans (avg rank: 12.6)

Observations:
- The top 7 teams in the West seem pretty consensus. With the #8 seed seemingly being wide open to about 5-6 teams
- Miami are the consensus #1 seed in the East.
- Doesn't seem to be a clear consensus cellar dwellar in the West.
- A top 8 in the East seems somewhat consensus.
- Most people are convinced Cleveland will suck

Personal thoughts:
- Barring any major injuries (which is bound to happen in a compacted season), I think these rankings look pretty damn good!
- I think Sacramento will surprise some people.
- I think Denver will disappoint a lot of people.
- I think Charlotte and Cleveland may struggle to hit double-digit wins in a 66 game season.

- I think Denver will disappoint a lot of people.

I don't neccessarily see how Denver are going to disappoint if the highest they've been ranked in this thread has been 7th so far.

Well, poorly phrased on my part. What i'm trying to say is that i think they'll lose more games than people expect.

I can see them being a team that overachieves a little and possibly sneaking into the Playoffs at the eighth spot, though for now I'll still with my previous prediction and suggest they narrowly miss out on the postseason with a ninth place finish in the West.

If they keep Afflalo, I'd say Denver is a decent bet to make the playoffs. They have a solid team with some potential and a borderline all-star in Nene. Utah has size but isn't there yet. Houston has a mediocre roster that's worse than last year and downgrades coaches. The Suns will be lucky to even win 40 games again with that roster, and Nash and Hill could break down at any time. Golden State making it wouldn't be a shock, but I think they're dysfunctional to the point where they'll be turrible again, despite getting Kwame.

Portland is no longer a team that usually posts a better Pythagorean than actual record, but hopefully swapping out Roy's corpse for Crawford and having Gerald Wallace all year has them in the top 4 of Ben's projections (and could actually stay there without Roy or Oden!).

EAST

1. Miami
2. Chicago
3. Atlanta
4. New York
5. Indiana
6. Philadelphia
7. Boston
8. Orlando
-------------------
9. Washington
10. New Jersey
11. Milwaukee
12. Detroit
13. Charlotte
14. Cleveland
15. Toronto


WEST

1. Oklahoma City
2. Dallas
3. San Antonio
4. LA Clippers
5. LA Lakers
6. Memphis
7. Houston
8. Portland
-------------------
9. Golden State
10. Minnesota
11. Phoenix
12. Utah
13. Denver
14. Sacramento
15. New Orleans

If they keep Afflalo, I'd say Denver is a decent bet to make the playoffs. They have a solid team with some potential and a borderline all-star in Nene.

I reckon they will end up keeping him. His RFA status is likely to turn most teams away, as I'd expect Denver will match any offer he'd be given elsewhere.

How're the projections going?

West
1. Oklahoma City
2. LA Clippers
3. LA Lakers
4. Dallas
5. Memphis
6. San Antonio
7. Portland
8. Houston (homerism pick)
----------
9. Denver
10. Golden State
11. Sacramento
12. Utah
13. New Orleans
14. Phoenix
15. Minnesota

East
1. Miami
2. Chicago
3. Boston
4. New York
5. Philadelphia
6. Atlanta
7. Indiana
8. New Jersey
------------
9. Orlando (if they hold on to Dwight, possibly at sixth above Atlanta)
10. Washington
11. Milwaukee
12. Detroit
13. Toronto
14. Cleveland
15. Charlotte

15. HOU

I understand them not making the playoffs, but explain.

East

1) Bulls (thought I'd be different)
2) Heat (easily interchangable with the Bulls)
3) Knicks (expecting big things from them now they have a quality centre)
4) Celtics
5) Hawks
6) Magic (Only if they keep Dwight... otherwise they'll probably drop to 9th or 10th easily)
7) Sixers
8) Pacers (Not completely sold on them, but for now they just edge the Nets)
---
9) Nets (They go up several spots if they get Dwight)
10) Bucks
11) Bobcats
12) Wizards
13) Pistons
14) Cavaliers
15) Raptors

West
1) Thunder (They seem to have everything going for them at the moment)
2) Spurs (I still think they'll be an awesome regular season team)
3) Mavericks (They'll remain competitive, even without Chandler)
4) Grizzlies
5) Clippers (The big bolter of the season)
6) Lakers
7) Blazers
8) Nuggets (At the very least I think they'll make the first round now they've retained some key personel)
---
9) Rockets (they'll be close, but I'm guessing they'll just miss out)
10) Warriors
11) Timberwolves
12) Kings
13) Jazz (Tempted to put them below the Hornets, but I think they'll be just a little better)
14) Hornets
15) Suns

WEST

1. Dallas
2. Oklahoma City
3. LA Lakers
4. San Antonio
5. Memphis
6. LA Clippers
7. Portland
8. Houston
--------------
9. Denver
10. Golden State
11. New Orleans
12. Utah
13. Sacramento
14. Phoenix
15. Minnesota

EAST

1. Miami
2. Chicago
3. Boston
4. Atlanta
5. New York
6. Indiana
7. Orlando
8. Milwaukee
-------------
9. Philadelphia
10. Washington
11. New Jersey
12. Detroit
13. Toronto
14. Charlotte
15. Cleveland

East
1. Chicago
2. Miami
3. New York
4. Indiana
5. Philadelphia
6. Orlando
7. Boston
8. Milwaukee
-----------------
9. Atlanta Hawks
10. Washington Wizards
11. Detroit Pistons
12. Cleveland Cavaliers
13. Toronto Raptors
14. Charlotte Bobcats
15. New Jersey Nets

West
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. Dallas Mavericks
3. Los Angeles Lakers
4. Los Angeles Clippers
5. Denver Nuggets
6. Memphis Grizzlies
7. San Antonio Spurs
8. Golden State Warriors
------------------------------
9. Portland Trailblazers
10. Phoenix Suns
11. Minnesota Timberwolves
12. Houston Rockets
13. New Orleans Hornets
14. Sacramento Kings
15. Utah Jazz

Most Valuable Player: Kevin Durant
Defensive Player: Dwight Howard
Sixth Man of the Year: James Harden
Most Improved Player: Arron Afflalo
Coach of the Year: Vinny Del Negro