When do you think the lockout will end?

[Dc311]

This is from a local news station here in San Antonio:

http://www.woai.com/content/blogs/don/s ... ZhWwA.cspx

It's the most popular question in my email box... How long? Just two weeks? A month? Maybe 50 games like the 99 season? When will the lockout be over?

The answer is simple. As soon as players get tired of missing checks. Players need paychecks to live. Owners don't. Some believe that the majority of owners will lose less money this year if they don't play at all. The bottom line moves dramatically when you don't have a 75 million dollar payroll to meet.

The players have this to lose: Tim Duncan makes over $21 million. He loses $1.7 million every 2 weeks. Tony Parker? He makes $12 million a year. That's a loss of a cool million every paycheck. But it's more about the lower wage earners. Matt Bonner, who makes over $3 million, will lose $275,000 every payday. Gary Neal, the Spurs lowest paid player, makes over $788,000 a year. He loses $65,000 with each payday that comes and goes.

Kobe and Lebron can afford to sit out. However, most of the 450 players in the union are more like Bonner and Neal. Soon the majority of players will bend. They will start to wonder about this stand. They will need to go back to work. Afterall, they have bills to pay. The owners don't.

NBA teams are their owners' toys. Luxury items. Paul Allen in Portland started Microsoft with Bill Gates. He has yachts worth more than the Trail Blazers. In fact, if the Blazers are worth $350 million dollars, then that is less than 3% of Allen's reported $13 Billon net worth. His Yachts are worth more. Seriously. Mickey Arison owns the Miami Heat, but also Carnival Cruise Lines. The NBA is simply a hobby. The owners can afford to hold out as long as they need to. The players? Start the clock now.

[Andrew]

Absolutely. The fact that Billy Hunter won't be forfeiting his salary and rather fiercely rebuffed Shane Battier when he brought that up is probably going to help fuel discontent among lower paid players, causing division and potentially setting them up to agree to an even worse deal than the ones they've rejected so far. It won't be surprising if the agents force a movement to decertify the union in the not too distant future.

[_Steve_]

Absolutely. The fact that Billy Hunter won't be forfeiting his salary and rather fiercely rebuffed Shane Battier when he brought that up is probably going to help fuel discontent among lower paid players, causing division and potentially setting them up to agree to an even worse deal than the ones they've rejected so far. It won't be surprising if the agents force a movement to decertify the union in the not too distant future.

In my opinion chances are pretty good, that players will agree to a 50-50 offer. I can't see them agree to a sub 50 offer with greedy agents in their necks too (less income for players means less money for agents).
Decertification of the union is something I really wouldn't like to see. What is a union good for, if it decertificates in crucial times...

Edit: Just came across this. Union will have/ had a meeting with an mediator. This could happened a lot earlier but nevertheless I'm surprised about the outcome.

[Andrew]

I agree, I think they'd take 50-50 if the owners relent on some of the cap demands. Reportedly, that's the main point of contention at the moment.

[Patr1ck]

Absolutely. The fact that Billy Hunter won't be forfeiting his salary and rather fiercely rebuffed Shane Battier when he brought that up is probably going to help fuel discontent among lower paid players, causing division and potentially setting them up to agree to an even worse deal than the ones they've rejected so far. It won't be surprising if the agents force a movement to decertify the union in the not too distant future.

In my opinion chances are pretty good, that players will agree to a 50-50 offer. I can't see them agree to a sub 50 offer with greedy agents in their necks too (less income for players means less money for agents).
Decertification of the union is something I really wouldn't like to see. What is a union good for, if it decertificates in crucial times...

Edit: Just came across this. Union will have/ had a meeting with an mediator. This could happened a lot earlier but nevertheless I'm surprised about the outcome.

Yeah, it should have happened as soon as the season finished. I give the lockout a couple weeks, depending on the frequency of meetings involving the "mediator."

[Andrew]

I'm not so optimistic, but would love that to be the case.

[Andrew]

Well, I picked December, with a January tipoff. Not quite since the season begins Christmas Day if the deal goes through as expected, but close enough.

[The X]

I voted for December start with full 82 game, condensed season. I've always thought it'd either be 82 game season or none at all. Am hoping for former.

I was half right. I was right with the December prediction, just not the timing. I thought it would be 1 December tipoff with 82 game season, turned out to be late December tipoff with 66 game season.

[NovU]

Same here The X, but off by approx. half a month.

I voted for December. Precisely December 7th.

[Andrew]

I was half right. I was right with the December prediction, just not the timing. I thought it would be 1 December tipoff with 82 game season, turned out to be late December tipoff with 66 game season.

Had the players tried dissolving the union, you could've been right. Or we could've started on time. Oh well, at least they're on the right track now.

[rise]

Thanksgiving day. It's a perfect time for whichever side gives in.

nearly perfect.

[Andrew]

Whoa, have to hand it to Pat on that one.

[shadowgrin]

Psychic!