by Andrew on Sat Oct 29, 2011 2:19 pm
Honestly, I don't think a three year rule would guarantee any level of quality for incoming talent in the NBA.
We can easily point to examples like Tim Duncan and Steve Nash, - successful players who spent at least three years in college (a full four in their case) - and contrast them with the likes of Leon Smith, Darius Miles and Kwame Brown who made the jump from high school to the pros, or players like Julian Wright and Javaris Crittenton who only spent a year or two in college. Such comparisons make a good case for lengthier college careers better preparing players for the pros and allowing them a greater chance at success.
However, we could just as easily point to LeBron James, Kobe Bryant and Kevin Garnett and compare them to the like of Adam Morrison and Joe Alexander, both of whom three years in college (with Morrison being a highly touted prospect) but have fizzled out of the league. Derrick Rose is doing alright after only one year at Memphis and Magic Johnson still stands as the prime example that a one-and-done player can be successful in the NBA.
When it comes down to it, the players that have the talent, the drive and the mindset to succeed in the NBA will make the league and have some measure of success, no matter how or when they get there; one year in college, three years in college, playing in Europe first (as Brandon Jennings did) or coming from another country in the first place. At the same time, the players who ultimately don't have what it takes to succeed at the NBA aren't going to enjoy the same level of success and there's nothing that can be done about that, regardless of how long they played college ball.
Until a player is tested at the NBA level, no one really knows for sure how successful they can be or whether they're truly cut out for the NBA. As such, no matter what system is in place you're not going to prevent failure, or to put it more kindly, little to very modest success (since making the NBA and getting any court time in the first place is a considerable achievement in itself).
That's not to say you can't tweak the system or change things so that spending a little longer in college is a more attractive option and that better support systems are set up so that players get better advice and are better taken care of, but simply putting a restriction in place saying "You must play at least three years in college" won't accomplish anything.
As far as teams losing money, it's a matter of either introducing a cap system that tries to further level the playing field and restrict teams from frivolous overspending or teams need to bring in smarter executives who can better evaluate a player's worth and won't panic and go over budget to sign a mediocre player. If no one is willing to pay mediocre players top dollar, then there's no bidding war to drive up their salaries. Want to get paid like the best? Well, you'll have to be one of them.