Perceived Value

by **The X** on Thu Jul 09, 2009 2:46 pm

Whilst keeping an eye on how free agency has played out so far, I can't help but wonder about how player X can get this much yet player Y is only worth this much.

I guess for me, it mostly depends on the circumstances. If a player is an unrestricted free agent, they seem to get more money as teams don't want to waste their time waiting to see if a player's original team matches the offer. Then there is the 'fit' criteria. For me, I didn't think Shawn Marion was overpaid in Phoenix, but he was overpaid in Miami & Toronto. IMHO Steve Nash was slightly underpaid during the D'Antoni years, but is now slightly overpaid now that D'Antoni is gone (forget for a moment that he has aged as I don't think his game is too dissimilar anyways). Then there is the economy issue. Andrew Bogut will get $10m this season based on an extension (I think it averages about $12m per season, back-loaded) he signed last year. Can't imagine him getting anymore than say $8m per year if he was free agent this off-season based on his injury history & hasn't panned out as well as most would've liked. Although, now it seems that Varejao is getting almost $8m per season from Cavs (Ferry is an idiot, when Lebron walks, you're just going to have the bad contracts of Varejao, Booby Gibson & so on). Really makes me wonder how much better PF's like David Lee & Paul Millsapp get. How does Turkoglu get $10m per year at age 30?

Okay, onto point of this thread. As a general fan of the game, I am going to give one fan's opinion on my perceived value of each player (won't get through them all obviously) & compared to what they actually get paid. I'm really curious to see how everybody else values players & it will be interesting to see how many of the top teams in the league have best payroll control based on talent of the roster.

I will start with the Atlanta Hawks, whom I can't believe didn't give Josh Childress the MLE & has not paid David Andersen a 'paltry' $2m per year to come over from Europe.

First I'll list my perceived value, then I'll list their actual salary. Please note that I have no scientific or mathematical formula, just throwing numbers out there. For some of the free agent who are not signed, I'll have to estimate it or predict based on best information on hand. To keep everything in order, please try to stick to the one team at a time, starting with Atlanta. I'll move onto Boston & other teams relatively quickly. Without further ado:

ATLANTA HAWKS

Overpaid = $7m ($0.6m/player - top 12)

Please feel free to comment on the topic in general or post how you think each team stacks up.

by **benji** on Thu Jul 09, 2009 3:46 pm

Like two years ago, me and Jae attempted to formulate some attempt at the "real value" of players statistically. And by me and Jae, it was mostly Jae coming up with the idea and going "that'd be neat" and me working conceptions of how to quantify it.

I'm not going to do it exactly as you did and base it on their wins produced last season in context of the team, and league. I don't love it at all, but here's my version 9.001 or whatever.

Player	Actual Salary	Salary based on Team Wins	Salary based on the League
johnson,joe	$14,232,566	$12,165,839	$10,440,615
bibby,mike	$15,255,000	$9,941,670	$8,731,140
smith,josh	$10,000,000	$8,641,005	$7,348,359
horford,al	$4,026,720	$6,903,485	$6,451,472
williams,marvin	$5,636,142	$7,280,041	$6,904,644
murray,ronald	$1,500,000	$7,675,766	$6,903,260
evans,maurice	$2,500,000	$5,648,008	$5,113,940
pachulia,zaza	$4,000,000	$5,021,644	$4,813,382
jones,solomon	$797,581	$2,067,112	$1,936,733
law,acie	$2,071,680	$1,844,736	$1,634,334
west,mario	$711,517	$826,219	$765,533
gardner,thomas	$711,517	$194,027	$166,253
hunter,othello	$442,114	$255,101	$227,392
morris,randolph	$797,581	$231,878	$205,306
claxton,speedy	$5,757,818	$1,698	$1,491
Total:	$68,440,236	$68,698,228	$61,643,854

by **The X** on Thu Jul 09, 2009 3:55 pm

benji wrote:Like two years ago, me and Jae attempted to formulate some attempt at the "real value" of players statistically. And by me and Jae, it was mostly Jae coming up with the idea and going "that'd be neat" and me working conceptions of how to quantify it.

I'm not going to do it exactly as you did and base it on their wins produced last season in context of the team, and league. I don't love it at all, but here's my version 9.001 or whatever.

I didn't actually base it on their wins produced last season. I just pulled a proverbial number out of my arse (ass for Americans) in each case. I'm actually a little surprised that my values were so close to those listed in your table based on wins. However, I don't expect that anomaly to continue when I post the other teams. Thanks for the insight.

I am actually hoping to see some different methodology (I know there is a few around, like REINA & others). As for my methodology, I'm just going with the one fan's random opinion without looking at stats, PERS, wins gained or anything.

by **The X** on Thu Jul 09, 2009 4:02 pm

Next up is the Celtics, who would only have the Big 3 plus a few scrubs if there was a hard salary cap in the NBA.

BOSTON CELTICS

Overpaid = $10m ($0.8m/player - top 12)

Under my perceived value, it seems to me that the Celtics are overpaying the Big 3, but in doing so & getting them altogether on one team, they can underpay (or pay market value) for the rest of the team.

by **Lamrock** on Thu Jul 09, 2009 4:28 pm

Interesting thread. I reckon Rondo should be #2 though

by **The X** on Thu Jul 09, 2009 4:30 pm

Lamrock wrote:Interesting thread. I reckon Rondo should be #2 though

Thought this could be like my previous draft thread.

As for Rondo, if he can parlay his play from playoffs onwards, then he'll be upgraded. Actually, I'll give him another $0.5m on my scale :wink:

EDIT: My perceived value also factors in getting fans in the door & making other teammates better, which is why Garnett ended up on top (I'm thinking Lebron will end up being the highest perceived value in league per my scale).

by **The X** on Thu Jul 09, 2009 7:14 pm

Next up is the Bobcats. Let's see how MJ is going.

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS

Overpaid = $18m ($1.5m/player - top 12)

Based on my perceived values I just can't see this team going anywhere anytime soon. The news doesn't get any better as Radmanovic & Mohammed's contracts run through to 2011, Diaw's to 2012 & Diop & Wallace's through 2012. This team looked semi-promising before MJ arrived (loads of cap space, no bad contracts & the number 3 pick ready to take Brandon Roy), not so anymore.

by **jonthefon** on Thu Jul 09, 2009 8:13 pm

Think this is a very subjective thing in regards to "perception of value". But generally, I think most of it is agreeable. Is this value based solely on what they've already done or does it include future possibility to perform? I'll keep reading, good luck.

by **The X** on Thu Jul 09, 2009 8:47 pm

jonthefon wrote:Think this is a very subjective thing in regards to "perception of value". But generally, I think most of it is agreeable. Is this value based solely on what they've already done or does it include future possibility to perform? I'll keep reading, good luck.

By the looks of it, it seems to be more their worth now. Although, I believe I have factored in some leeway for future performance, but that's probably more based on their age. So I'd say it's a combination of current production/value to team, player's age & for the bigger stars, marketability/bums in seats.

But yes, I would agree that its very subjective. Then again, each team/GM has their own perception of player value, which was a major prompt for this thread.

by **The X** on Thu Jul 09, 2009 8:56 pm

This one is for Andrew:

CHICAGO BULLS

Overpaid = $18.5m ($1.5m/player - top 12)

For the record, if Ben Gordon was re-signing for Bulls, I give his perceived value $8.5m :wink:

by **Valor** on Fri Jul 10, 2009 5:46 am

The X wrote:This one is for Andrew:

CHICAGO BULLS

Derrick Rose: P = $9m (A = $5m)
Luol Deng: P = $7m (A = $10.5m)
Kirk Hinrich: P = $6.5m (A = $9.5m)
John Salmons: P = $6m (A = $5.5m)
Brad Miller: P = $5.5m (A = $12m)
Tyrus Thomas: P = $4m (A = $4.5m)
Joakim Noah: P = $3m (A = $2.5m)
Aaron Gray: P = $2.5m (A = $1m qualifying offer)
Jannero Pargo: P = $2m (A = $2m)
Tim Thomas: P = $1m (A = $6.5m)
Jerome James: P = $1m (A = $6.5m)
Anthony Roberson: P = $0.5m (A = $1.0m)

X's Perceived Value = $48m
Actual Salaries = $66.5m

Overpaid = $18.5m

For the record, if Ben Gordon was re-signing for Bulls, I give his perceived value $8.5m

i wouldn't give Deng's value to be 7m...his production dropped a TON after signing that ridiculously high extension, to me at least, right now he's less valuable then brad miller or even tyrus thomas

Bluesky · by **Andrew** on Fri Jul 10, 2009 11:12 am

It's an interesting thing to ponder. If we're going to evaluate executives on "perceived value" though, I think we also need to take into account bad contracts that have been "inherited" and other factors that have led to a team overpaying a certain player. For example, Luol Deng being overpaid is Pax's mistake, while the Bulls presently overpaying Jerome James is Isiah Thomas' blunder (though the reason the Bulls are currently overpaying James can be traced back to another Paxson error, grossly overpaying Ben Wallace).

I know you said you're not using any precise science/maths to come up with the numbers, but just out of interest are you taking position/demand/"unique talent" into account at all? For example, legit big men who are at least decent tend to get slightly overpaid because they're more difficult to come by. So for someone like KG for example, the difference between $15 million and $16.5 million is small enough to be almost negligible in my opinion because KG is such a rare player.

by **The X** on Fri Jul 10, 2009 7:30 pm

Valor wrote:i wouldn't give Deng's value to be 7m...his production dropped a TON after signing that ridiculously high extension, to me at least, right now he's less valuable then brad miller or even tyrus thomas

Yep, I wasn't sure on Deng's value, but it's not just on current production. I still see his intrinsic value, so I have factor that into it. But yep, he was a tough one. I think he'll bounce back somewhat this season though (Y)

Andrew wrote:It's an interesting thing to ponder. If we're going to evaluate executives on "perceived value" though, I think we also need to take into account bad contracts that have been "inherited" and other factors that have led to a team overpaying a certain player. For example, Luol Deng being overpaid is Pax's mistake, while the Bulls presently overpaying Jerome James is Isiah Thomas' blunder (though the reason the Bulls are currently overpaying James can be traced back to another Paxson error, grossly overpaying Ben Wallace).

I know you said you're not using any precise science/maths to come up with the numbers, but just out of interest are you taking position/demand/"unique talent" into account at all? For example, legit big men who are at least decent tend to get slightly overpaid because they're more difficult to come by. So for someone like KG for example, the difference between $15 million and $16.5 million is small enough to be almost negligible in my opinion because KG is such a rare player.

Yes, teams have inherited bad contracts, but as you said, there is usually a reason for it (overpaying somebody else in the first place). Naturally in the case of guys like Brad Miller, Bulls acquired a solid big & a big expiring contract, so that should be considered in the big picture. But as I'm not doing a highly detailed analysis, what I'm doing will have to do & each person can take from it what they will.

As for the KG example, you will notice across the lot, that I believe as a whole, NBA players on general are overpaid. Overpaying $1.5m for an All-Star big is not as bad as overpaying an average big $4-5m (sometimes the player was worth it earlier in the contract, but due to age, they're not now, but maybe more contracts should be front-loaded in that case). Overpaying KG slightly is alright as since I believe the NBA overpays majority of its players, you will have to overpay to get the best players & compete for titles.

After I finish all the teams, I might rank the teams in order of perceived value versus actual salaries, and perceived overpaid & stuff like that, so hopefully it is a little more meaningful than just doing each team, as relativity is an important factor. Thanks for your input though (Y)

by **The X** on Fri Jul 10, 2009 8:02 pm

Onto the Cleveland Cavaliers, which should be interesting. They're willing to overpay to win it all, but is it on the right players?

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

Overpaid = $12m ($1m/player - top 12)

by **The X** on Fri Jul 10, 2009 11:08 pm

Mark Cuban likes to throw money around, so I would expect that the Mavs would be overpaying players & the results kind of match this assumption.

DALLAS MAVERICKS

Overpaid = $21.5m ($1.6m/player - top 12)

by **The X** on Sat Jul 11, 2009 10:54 am

Now for Denver Nuggets. Looking at the Nuggets, now if it wasn't for Kenyon Martin's horrible contract....

DENVER NUGGETS

Overpaid = $12m ($1.0m/player - top 12)

by **Modifly** on Sat Jul 11, 2009 8:22 pm

Kenyon Martin was a number one pick that everyone expected to be a blast. Too bad he got injured and couldn't play like he did in the Finals against the Lakers regularly.

by **benji** on Sat Jul 11, 2009 8:41 pm

Nobody expected truly great things out of Martin or that class. There was hope (especially in Miles and White), but not expectations. His peak (All-Star maybe) was expected, but it was expected to last. It didn't because he got injured.

That said, his "Finals against the Lakers" wasn't really his peak. He was horrendous in the first two games, and then the series was over so they didn't bother guarding him. Martin's real peak was 2003-04, especially the playoffs, when he was fantastic and nearly lead the Nets to toppling The Perfect Team as their best player.

BTW, I gave up on Perceived Value for the rest, since I do not have salary info for last season in my file past the Clippers. And more importantly because trades, and injuries change too much to a statistical evaluation. (See: Garnett, Kevin for a good example.) I decided I'll just do some "projections" for next season anyway.

by **The X** on Sun Jul 12, 2009 11:14 am

Modifly wrote:Kenyon Martin was a number one pick that everyone expected to be a blast. Too bad he got injured and couldn't play like he did in the Finals against the Lakers regularly.

He was a number 1 pick in one of weakest NBA drafts ever, so I don't think people expected him to be a franchise cornerstone. That being said, & as Benji alluded to, at one stage with the Nets when they were at or near top of the East for those couple of years & pre-injury, Martin was a good PF & was nearing All-Star level, & that's what he got his contract on the back of. Such is life I guess.

benji wrote:BTW, I gave up on Perceived Value for the rest, since I do not have salary info for last season in my file past the Clippers. And more importantly because trades, and injuries change too much to a statistical evaluation. (See: Garnett, Kevin for a good example.) I decided I'll just do some "projections" for next season anyway.

Sounds good, look forward to it

by **The X** on Sun Jul 12, 2009 11:41 am

Next up is the Pistons. With the moves they've made, you wonder if they will be unloading Rip Hamilton & get a bonafide bigman, among other things. Definitely a transitional time.

DETROIT PISTONS

Ben Gordon: P = $8.5m (A = $11m)
Richard Hamilton: P = $8.5m (A = $11.5m)
Tayshaun Prince: P = $8m (A = $10.5m)
Charlie Villanueva: P = $7.5m (A = $7m)
Rodney Stuckey: P = $6m (A = $2m)
Jason Maxiell: P = $4.5m (A = $5m)
Aaron Afflalo: P = $2m (A = $1m)
Will Bynum: P = $1.5m (A = $1m)
Kwame Brown: P = $1.5m (A = $4m)
Walter Sharpe: P = $0.5m (A = $0.5m)

X's Perceived Value = $48.5m ($4.2m/player - top 12 & assuming 2 additional $1m players)
Actual Salaries = $53.5m ($4.6m/player - top 12 & assuming 2 additional $1m players)

Overpaid = $5m ($0.4m/player - top 12)

Bluesky · by **Andrew** on Sun Jul 12, 2009 2:10 pm

I believe Gordon's salary for this season is going to be closer to $9 mil, with an increase in subsequent years.

by **Dan's Brain** on Sun Jul 12, 2009 5:58 pm

The X wrote:Next up is the Pistons. With the moves they've made, you wonder if they will be unloading Rip Hamilton & get a bonafide bigman, among other things.

That's probably their aim. Always easier said than done though. The same question has been asked about the Bulls year-after-year since Elton Brand was dealt.

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