1st pick among the 1st picks (Survey)

[Weiland]

How would you rank these last "1st picks" in the NBA?

97 - Tim Duncan
98 - Michael Olowakandi
99 - Elton Brand
00 - Kenyon Martin
01 - Kwame Brown
02 - Yao Ming
03 - Lebron James
04 - Dwight Howard
05 - Andrew Bogut
06 - Andrea Bargnani
07 - Greg Oden
08 - Derrick Rose
09 - Blake Griffin


Mine would be

1. Lebron James
2. Tim Duncan
3. Dwight Howard
4. Yao Ming
5. Derrick Rose
6. Greg Oden
7. Elton Brand
8. Blake Griffin
9. Andrea Bargnani
10. Andrew Bogut
11. Kenyon Martin
12. Kwame Brown
13. Michael Olowakandi

[Modifly]

I would rate them as follows:

1. LeBron James
2. Tim Duncan
3. Yao Ming
4. Dwight Howard
5. Elton Brand
6. Derrick Rose
7. Kenyon Martin
8. Greg Odon
9. Andrea Bargnani
10. Andrew Bogut
11. Kwame Brown
12. Michael Olowakandi
13. Blake Griffin (at 13th spot because we have yet to see him play)

[J@3]

Is this in terms of production or just how much you like them? I'll do it in terms of production...

1: Tim Duncan
2: LeBron James
3: Dwight Howard
4: Elton Brand
5: Yao Ming
6: Derrick Rose
7: Kenyon Martin
8: Andrew Bogut
9: Michael Olowokandi
10: Kwame Brown
11: Andrea Bargnani
12: Greg Oden

[dopeboy]

1: Tim Duncan
2: LeBron James
3: Dwight Howard
4: Elton Brand
5: Yao Ming
6: Kenyon Martin
7: Derrick Rose
8: Andrew Bogut
9: Michael Olowakandi
10: Andrea Bargnani
11: Greg Oden
12: Kwame Brown
13: Blake Griffin (for now)

[Moz]

1. Tim Duncan
2. Lebron James
3. Dwight Howard
4. Yao Ming
5. Elton Brand
6. Derrick Rose
7. Kenyon Martin
8. Andrea Bargnani
9. Andrew Bogut
10. Michael Olowokandi
11. Kwame Brown
12. Greg Oden
n\a - Blake Griffin

[Andrew]

In terms of production, success and having a positive impact on their respective teams, I'd rank them as follows:

1. Tim Duncan
2. LeBron James
3. Dwight Howard
4. Yao Ming
5. Elton Brand
6. Derrick Rose
7. Kenyon Martin
8. Andrew Bogut
9. Greg Oden
10. Andrea Bargnani
11. Kwame Brown
12. Michael Olwokandi

I'll abstain from ranking Blake Griffin as he's yet to play a minute in the NBA, but I'd predict him to be around ninth on the list after his rookie year.

[jonthefon]

1. Tim Duncan
2. Lebron James
3. Dwight Howard
4. Elton Brand
5. Yao Ming
6. Derrick Rose
7. Andrew Bogut
8. Andrea Bargnani
9. Kenyon Martin
10. Greg Oden
11. Kwame Brown
12. Michael Olowakandi
Blake Griffin (N/A)

No matter how good LeBron is, Tim Duncan still has four rings, he's going to be a certain HOFer, he's produced consistently at an elite level, and he possesses the Duncan face. Brand actually has done a lot in his career, albeit on shitty teams, but he's still up there on numbers. Brown and Kandi are obviously busts. Oden hasn't done anything yet.

[Jackal]

I'm all for the Lebron James love by everyone, but where's the love for one of the most fundamentally sound players ever.

Oh wait, that's probably where the "boring" bit comes in.

[Martti.]

1. Tim Duncan
2. Lebron James
3. Dwight Howard
4. Elton Brand
5. Yao Ming
6. Derrick Rose
7. Kenyon Martin
8. Andrew Bogut
9. Andrea Bargnani
10. Greg Oden
11. Kwame Brown
12. Michael Olowakandi
-------------------
Blake Griffin no rank.

[shadowgrin]

In terms of success and production:

1. Tim Duncan
2. Lebron James
3. Dwight Howard
4. Yao Ming
5. Elton Brand
6. Derrick Rose
7. Andrew Bogut
8. Kenyon Martin
9. Andrea Bargnani
10. Greg Oden
------------------------------------
Blake Griffin
Michael Olowakandi
Kwame Brown

I excluded Griffin because he hasn't played in the league yet and players like Kandiman and Kwame doesn't deserve to be even in the same list as Duncan.

[vinceair]

1. Tim Duncan
2. Lebron James
3. Dwight Howard
4. Yao Ming
5. Elton Brand
6. Derrick Rose
7. Greg Oden
8. Kenyon Martin
9. Andrea Bargnani
10. Olowokandi
11. KWAME BROWN

[Alejandrov011]

1. Tim Duncan
2. LeBron James
3. Dwight Howard
4. Yao Ming
5. Kenyon Martin (two NBA finals)
6. Elton Brand
7. Derrick Rose
8. Andrew Bogut
9. Andrea Bargnani
10. Greg Oden
11. Blake Griffin (yet to play)
(.......)
685. Kwame Brown
2498. Michael Olowokandi

[Its_asdf]

Why some people ranked Oden ahead of Bargnani, I'll never know.

[hova-]

Exactly. I guess even the (real) Kandiman had a bigger impact so far. Oden has done nothing. As bad as Olowokandi was .. Oden still has to show that he is not the next Olowokandi.

[benji]

I'm throwing out Greg Oden (who had a fantastic rookie season overshadowed by getting too many "rookie" calls), Derrick Rose (whose hype train never took off fully until the Bulls had made a trade that took them from a once again lottery team to a 50-win caliber team overnight, which was explained by...Rose of course) and Blake Griffin because they haven't been in the league long enough. Oden and Rose were both in it for one season, and Griffin hasn't even signed his rookie contract yet.


Then there's the question of longetivity achievement vs. per season achievement, Duncan wins the first by default, LeBron probably wins the second.

10. Michael Olowokandi (LAC, 1998)

G	MIN	P/36	R/36	A/36	TS%	REB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	PER	WS
500	13130	11.3	9.4	0.9	.457	14.9	4.2	0.9	3.8	16.6	18.8	88	104	10.7	2.4

John Hollinger once called Olowokandi the "biggest fraud in the league" and he was nearly right. It's easy to forget, but back in 2002 a lot of people were saying "you have to give him a max contract" simply because he was the only other "true" center outside of Shaq. Even the $16 million over three years the Wolves gave him was probably too much.

What's the biggest problem? Well, look at that TS%. He has a career TS% of 46%. His career high is 48%. Antoine Walkers' career average is 48.5% and cracked 48% five times. (And was a few made baskets shy twice more.) Even Walker managed to crack 50% twice. Olowokandi only topped the 46% mark twice. It's not like he did anything else on offense either, out of the 29 centers who played 10,000+ minutes since Olowokandi was drafted, Kandi ranks 24th in offensive rebounding, 23rd in assist percentage, and 17th in turnover percentage. (And that TS%? Dead last, by a mile.) Add it all up, and Kandi is not just last by a parsec for centers in ORtg, but is arguably the worst offensive player to play 10,000+ minutes since the 1999 season.

His shot blocking percentage of almost 4% was solid, and he was a defensive factor in Minnesota when he actually played. But we're not talking Tim Duncan or anything, maybe if the all-defense team had ten teams he'd make it as a center on one of the latter half.

Playoffs? TS% of 38%, Tov% of 30%, ORtg of 70 and PER of 2.0. I don't think you need to know anything else.

9. Andrea Bargnani (TOR, 2006)

G	MIN	P/36	R/36	A/36	TS%	REB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	PER	WS
221	5943	16.6	5.8	1.4	.536	9.5	6.4	0.8	2.5	11.4	22.6	101	109	12.9	7.2

Let's get the Olowokandi mocking out of the way. Last season Bargnani had 3.9 win shares for a 33-49 team. Olowokandi has 2.4 career win shares.

Bargnani's second season looks like a fluke. He's shot 54-56% in the other two years, and he was below 50% in 2007-08 and fell to 40% in the playoffs. He's not quite there as a great player, or anywhere near "number one" pick, but that's mostly because of his seive like defense outside of some pretty good shot blocking considering where he plays. Offensively, he's moving along Rashard Lewis' path in terms of his development as a scorer. I wouldn't discount 20 point scoring seasons down the line. He loses out to Kwame Brown because Kwame's peak was higher than Bargnani is so far, and because Kwame somehow keeps suckering teams into big contracts so he's stuck around the league. Do this a year or two from now, I'd expect Bargnani to move up easily.

8. Kwame Brown (WAS, 2001)

G	MIN	P/36	R/36	A/36	TS%	REB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	PER	WS
462	10560	11.1	8.8	1.6	.523	14.1	7.3	1.3	2.2	17.0	16.1	102	105	12.8	16.9

Like I said above, Kwame's here because he's been around longer. He has good years in 2003-04 and his first two with the Lakers. He also wasn't bad in Detroit last season. Everyone has accepted he's never going to be a star and so both Detroit and the Lakers have used him as a hole-in-the-dike big man who hits the boards and takes easy shots. He's also big enough to guard most centers around the league. If he could slice his turnovers down to his rookie levels (odd, yes) he'd be a servicable starter for desperate teams. His 2005-06 playoffs are an example of this. Why people keep giving him multi-million dollar multi-year contracts I'll never understand though.

7. Andrew Bogut (MIL, 2005)

G	MIN	P/36	R/36	A/36	TS%	REB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	PER	WS
262	8450	13.3	9.8	2.8	.553	16.0	12.8	1.1	2.6	15.9	17.9	108	108	16.1	17.0

You can see from the stats alone we've made another leap in quality. Bogut's racked up just as many win shares as Kwame in half the time. He's also had four consistent seasons instead of the wild fluctuations in quality we saw in the three guys below him. Compared to those guys and especially Olowokandi, Bogut looks like a superstar, but overall in the context of the league and these number one picks, he's more like average. Like most bigs his problem is turnovers, and he's not the best defensive player (nor on the best team defensively which doesn't help his numbers) but it's easy to forget he's still only 25 when next season starts.

6. Kenyon Martin (NJN, 2000)

G	MIN	P/36	R/36	A/36	TS%	REB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	PER	WS
548	17806	15.7	7.9	2.3	.517	12.5	11.2	2.0	2.8	12.7	21.6	101	100	15.7	39.4

There's this perception about Martin that he's fallen apart without Kidd, when in reality it was really the lack of go-to scoring options in New Jersey and later injuries. As I showed in another thread a year or so ago, Martin's first (and injury free) season in Denver is more or less exactly the same as his last two in New Jersey. All three of those years Martin was using 23-25% of possessions. Which for a guy who was shooting only 51-52% and had ORtgs around 100, was not really a good thing. Now he's down to 17-18% usage and 52-55% while shaving a few more turnovers off to give up ORtg's closer to 105. He's kept up his defense and his rebounding is where it's generally been (much lower than you'd expect from something with his athletic skills) but it's more his injuries and aging than anything Kidd did.

He probably peaked in the 2004 playoffs. 19/11 with 58% shooting. In the end, like Bogut, he's really just average and thus good enough to start, which isn't bad, but isn't great either.

5. Dwight Howard (ORL, 2004)

G	MIN	P/36	R/36	A/36	TS%	REB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	PER	WS
407	14623	17.3	12.6	1.4	.597	20.5	6.9	1.3	4.2	16.9	22.3	111	100	21.2	52.3

As we make another leap, this was the toughest to decide, especially since he's played the same number of minutes as Yao in two fewer seasons. I eventually knocked him below Yao because next year and probably for the rest of history he'll be higher. What is there to say about Howard? He's a beast who's dominating despite, as he been said ad nasuem, only having two offensive moves. He's gotten better each year and become the dominant defensive player in the league. He's lead the league in rebounding three times, and the last two times he's been to the playoffs, he's matched or exceeded his regular season performance. This year he averaged 20/15 on 63% shooting (and an insane 35% DReb%) while dominating defensively as he lead Orlando into the Finals.

4. Yao Ming (HOU, 2002)

G	MIN	P/36	R/36	A/36	TS%	REB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	PER	WS
481	15727	21.1	10.2	1.8	.596	16.5	9.6	0.6	4.4	14.5	26.8	112	99	23.0	64.2

I kept Yao here despite the injuries mostly as a notation that Howard will storm up this list over the next two years and Yao needs to be recognized in the meantime. He's spent the last five years combining 26+% usage rates with 60+% TS%'s. He is an offensive juggernaut who is often overlooked defensively. Since his second season, when he manages to play 2000+ minutes the Rockets have yet to fall below 5th defensively despite an ever shifting, ever injured, calvalcade of teammates.

Yao and the Rockets are knocked for playoff failures, but Yao isn't really the one to be blaming for these. In 2005 he scored 21ppg despite playing only 31 minutes because he shot 69% while swatting 7% of the Mavericks shots in a seven game series. In 2007 he obviously played worse than during the season, but still dropped 25/10 on 56% shooting over seven games. This year he put up 17/11 on 63% shooting before getting injured after breaking the first round curse.

Yao's going to slip down after next season because of the injuries, and because Dwight is powered by God, but not because of his play.

3. Elton Brand (CHI, 1999)

G	MIN	P/36	R/36	A/36	TS%	REB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	PER	WS
643	24421	18.9	9.6	2.5	.555	15.6	13.3	1.3	4.0	12.2	24.7	111	104	22.4	82.2

Elton Brand is probably the most underrated and underappreciated superstar of the last decade. He was only once voted onto an All-Star team (injury replacement the other year) despite usually being the third best power forward in the league after Duncan and Garnett. Players who took his spot over the years include Anthony Mason, Wally Sczerbiak, Pedja Stojakovic (who was great that year, but nowhere near Brand), and Mehmet Okur.

Brand was a force on both ends that didn't just toil on terrible teams, but dominated on them. In his rookie year he infamously dropped a 20/10 while not just doubling, but tripling up the win shares of the next closest player. Upon arriving on the Clippers he nearly dragged them to the playoffs with a near 18/12 and 59% shooting despite the best efforts of Olowokandi (2569 minutes), Jeff McInnis (3030) and Darius Miles (2228). After the team imploded (despite two more All-Star quality but reduced due to injury seasons from Brand) and gave up following the Andre Miller addition, the team jettesoned Olowokandi and others. Brand immediately went back to work playing 3000+ minutes in each of the next seasons. (81, 79 and 80 games.) With the addition of Sam Cassell, he and the Clippers had their best season ever as Brand terrorized the league (doubling up Cassell's win shares) behind 25/10 on 58% shooting with just 9% turnovers. He did the same in the playoffs 25.4/10.3 on 59% and just 10% for 122 ORtg as they nearly got to the Western Conference Finals. Brand was so dominant the team only needed four players to play more than 1525 minutes.

Injuries have destroyed his career the last two seasons, and with him hitting 30, Dwight is going to overtake him on this list. If Brand had landed almost anywhere but the TerriBulls and the Clippers, he might have a few rings. (Or if say, the Bulls didn't trade away that front line of Brad Miller, Ron Artest and Brand, all of whom would go onto All-Star seasons. Just none in Chicago.)

2. LeBron James (CLE, 2003)

G	MIN	P/36	R/36	A/36	TS%	REB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	PER	WS
472	19142	24.4	6.2	5.9	.555	10.0	32.9	2.3	1.6	11.6	31.6	113	103	26.2	83.4

At this point, anything less than the greatest player of all time will be a dissapointment. Not only did he just put on a season that matches if not tops anything by anyone else, he also put on the greatest ten plus game individual playoff performance in history. 35/9/7 on 62% shooting with only 9% turnovers? LeBron's not great, he's just unfair. Infact, it's in the leagues best interest that LeBron never gets on a team like the 1991, 1992 or 1996 Bulls. LeBron's never played with two all-star caliber players alongside him like Jordan did. If he gets a team with/like those, and plays like this. Everything we know about team dominance will be re-written.

Like I said, he's unfair.

1. Tim Duncan (SAS, 1997)

G	MIN	P/36	R/36	A/36	TS%	REB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg	DRtg	PER	WS
899	33138	20.9	11.5	3.1	.553	18.4	16.6	1.1	4.6	12.5	28.2	110	94	25.0	148.5

LeBron will surpass Duncan and Dwight probably will. But for now, and since he was drafted, he's the very definition of "the best number one pick." His offense is consistently underlooked because only once has he averaged 25+ ppg, and his fg%'s don't blow people away. However his ORtg's are consistently good, sometimes great such as his first MVP year, his TS% is always in the mid to upper 50's, and his turnovers are low for a big man. During his MVP seasons he was 1st and 7th in offensive win shares.

But offense isn't Duncan's advantage over everyone. He'd be a great player with a championship or two based on his offense alone. However, Duncan is also the best defensive player post-merger. Others have blocked more shots, Rodman was the more fercious and versitile defender, and Duncan has no DPOY. But he's simply the best. The defensive ranks of the Spurs since Duncan's drafting? 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th. The 2004 Spurs are possibly the greatest defensive team in NBA history, and certainly the best since the merger. The string of defensive dominance from 2004-2006 for the Spurs is unmatched by anyone who isn't the 1960's Celtics. The Knicks of the 90's only dominated at near that level for two years, the Spurs did it for three. Every player Duncan has played with since 2002 has seen their defensive numbers increase with the Spurs and dimenish after they left. Rasho Nesterovic went from a really good defensive player to one of the best at his position. The Spurs were without Manu Ginobili for most of the year last season and played often-undersized sieves like Matt Bonner and Roger Mason big minutes. They still finished fifth.

Duncan's a unique player. In the playoffs, he plays better. Look at that link above about LeBron's playoff performance. You'll notice Duncan is 12th. If we make it 9+ games, Duncan would appear in the top ten again. In losing years he's dominant, in winning years he's dominant. In 2002 he averaged 24.5/14.5/4 on 55% shooting while swatting more shots than anyone and having the highest PER of the playoffs. (One that matched LeBron's this season.) In 2006, it was 26/10.5/3 on 63% shooting and once again the highest. When he wins, he also dominates. 25/15.5/5 on 58% shooting in 2003, including his infamous Game Six of the Finals. In 2005 (the third best Spurs team) it was 23.5/12.5/3 on only 53%. (Only!) In 2007 (the best) it was 22/11.5/3 on 56%. (Only 38 and 37 mpg on those two teams compared to 42 and 43 in 2002 and 2003.)

But really I could have just posted "'Nuff Said" for Duncan couldn't I.

[shadowgrin]

Not only did he (LeBron) just put on a season that matches if not tops anything by anyone else

Did a browse of the Yearly PER leaders. HOLY SHITE!

LeBron 2008-2009 - 31.67
Most "recent" player to be near that was 18 years ago...

Jordan 1990-1991 - 31.63
Only players to have PER greater than LeBron in a season was...

Jordan 1987-1988 - 31.71
and Chamberlain (for two consecutive seasons)
1961-1962 - 31.76
1962-1963 - 31.84

[Hedonist]

I am not going to rate them on productivity because everybody can count.

What really would be an interesting discussion in my opinion is rating the picks when you also consider the players they dind't pick and how they turned out, but I'm no encyclopedia on draft classes so instead I'll do it based on expected productivity & stardom as I expect it to be when they are all retired.

1. LeBron James
2. Tim Duncan
3. Derrick Rose
4. Dwight Howard
5. Yao Ming
6. Blake Griffin
7. Kenyon Martin
8. Elton Brand
9. Andrea Bargnani
10. Andrew Bogut

Obviously it's really hard to place the young ones, there's the biggest margin for error ofcourse.
Derrick Rose is a bit of a gamble, Griffin maybe too high as well but he may become better than 6th also.

Howard and Ming is a toss-up but Howard is so young he has a lot of chances to develop and win championships.

I think LeBron will win four rings without severe injuries and based on personal scoring and plays and stats etc outshine Duncan.

[Andrew]

I'm all for the Lebron James love by everyone, but where's the love for one of the most fundamentally sound players ever.

Oh wait, that's probably where the "boring" bit comes in.

To be fair, Duncan is topping most people's lists so far.

[Modifly]

I made a mistake by putting LeBron ahead of Duncan.

For me, Duncan is probably the most boring superstar to watch but he's definitely the best performing number one pick thus far. He's super consistent, his numbers are humble yet very err.. I cant find the right word to go here.

[shadowgrin]

consistent? highly contributory to winning games (so it's not a single word)?

[Jackal]

I still don't understand how being coldly efficient is considered boring.

[Hedonist]

I still don't understand how being coldly efficient is considered boring.

If you can't imagine why people find him boring than I'm not surprised that you don't think he's boring.

[Weiland]

I ranked them considering not only what they have done but also with their potentials in my mind. Teams pick players pretty much in the same way, what they have done so far (college,international,highschool) and their potentials. I ranked Olowakandi as the lowest since he's pretty much finished with his career and therefore probably no room for further individual accomplishments. This post is not meant to be like redoing the draft or something. I'm not saying that Oden has done anything yet, but given the overall considerations and factors, age, playing time, injuries, - i guess he should still be ranked with potentials in mind. As for Blake Griffin, just your take on him. Will he be better than bogut, martin etc?

keep this thread Interesting.

[Modifly]

I still don't understand how being coldly efficient is considered boring.

It's hard to explain too. Duncan is very efficient and consistent, but he hasn't got a lot of exciting moves in his repertoire. It's sensible to keep using the same moves when it's working, but it gets boring (at least for me) after time. His game is like a rewind of the last game he played, I'm not saying that it's a bad thing, it actually is a good thing because he's very consistent but it lacks something that makes him fun to watch. Maybe Duncan is too fundamental-ish.

[NovU]

I always liked Duncan for being gentle and humble all the time. If you aren't a fan, you wouldn't find them exciting I guess. I still think his basketball should be appreciated more by more people.

As for the list, I think most of you have it right or pretty close, and benji's explnantion pretty much sums it all up. Good read.