Grant Hill and the Hall of Fame

[Andrew]

During the Suns/Mavs game last week, it was mentioned that Grant Hill hasn't missed a game this season (jinx alert). His numbers are down due to reduced minutes and his role coming off the bench earlier this season but they're still decent given his playing time and place in the pecking order. I remember we talked about it a few years back but that was before the comeback year with the Magic in 2004/2005 so I thought I'd bring it up: does Grant Hill, once seemingly a lock for the Hall of Fame, still have a chance to be inducted some day?

I think in light of the comeback he still has a chance, perhaps not first ballot, but if he can play a supporting role on a championship team then his chances seem much better. He posted some excellent numbers through the first six years of his career and he a pretty good year in 2005 that was cut short as a precaution when the Magic were eliminated from playoff contention but if he can be a part of a successful team or two before his career is over then that might just make up for lost time.

[jonthefon]

I think that by the end of his career, he'll have just enough statistically to get him into the HOF. Guys like James Worthy and Joe Dumars have made it with probably similar figures to what Hill's will be at the end of his career. It's a shame about the injuries though.

[dansensei]

if he could play the role of a key starter, or even the 6th man, in a championship team, he got a good shot in entering the hall of fame...

[Andrew]

I think that by the end of his career, he'll have just enough statistically to get him into the HOF. Guys like James Worthy and Joe Dumars have made it with probably similar figures to what Hill's will be at the end of his career. It's a shame about the injuries though.

They also played key roles on championship teams though (Dumars even winning Finals MVP honours in the Bad Boys' first championship year), a distinction which Grant Hill currently lacks. I could see that keeping him out first ballot at least, unless he's part of a more successful team in the Playoffs (and preferably an NBA champion).

I think Bill Walton is the benchmark in that regard. He had a great college career and a few really good seasons in the NBA including the championship in 1977 and he was certainly a famous and significant player if not a dominant superstar throughout his career. Hill is similar though with more standout seasons in the NBA, though as already noted he lacks the championship and Finals MVP award that Walton achieved, and I feel confident in saying the ship has sailed on one of those possibilities.

[The X]

Honestly, I can't see him making HOF as a player....he'll get in when Shawn Kemp gets in I guess....which means it isn't going to happen....he was a superb player in his prime, but he didn't really have any playoff success at all....I'm a huge fan of Grant Hill's, but I just don't think his career as a whole makes him worthy....

then again, I'm the same person who was surprised that Dumars made it to Hall of Fame so quickly, whereas guys like Nique are 1st ballot material....

when I look at who is playing at moment or just finished....

Tim Duncan (1st ballot HOF)
Jason Kidd (1st ballot HOF)
Gary Payton (1st ballot HOF)
Scottie Pippen (1st ballot HOF)
Kevin Garnett (1st ballot HOF)
Kobe Bryant (1st ballot HOF)
Shaquille O'Neal (1st ballot HOF)
David Robinson (1st ballot HOF)
Michael Jordan (1st ballot HOF)
Lebron James (1st ballot HOF) - barring a career ending injury, in which case he might still get in regardless....
Dirk Nowitzki (HOF, not sure if 1st ballot) - international superstar
Pau Gasol (HOF, not 1st ballot) - international star
Steve Nash (HOF, but not 1st ballot)
Manu Ginobili (HOF, but not 1st ballot) - this is more to do with contribution to international bball for Argentina, but NBA career helps....if Vlade is in, Manu definitely is too....
Yao (HOF, but not 1st ballot) - when all is said & done, he'll be there....
Dennis Rodman (HOF, definitely not 1st ballot) - when all is said & done, committee will wisen up & include him....
Reggie Miller (HOF, maybe not 1st ballot) - I think he might be 1st ballot, when he probably shouldn't be....and I don't know if he deserves to make it over some of players listed below, but he will, much like Dumars did....

Dwayne Wade (wait & see if he holds up....if he does, then 1st ballot)
Chris Paul (wait & see if he holds up....if he does, then 1st ballot)
Deron Williams (not looking like it yet, but you never know, especially if healthy & Jazz stay at top of West)
Carmelo Anthony (not looking like it yet, but you never know)
Chris Webber (Not completely sold on C-Webb, but he might be HOF, just not 1st ballot)
Paul Pierce (Not HOF, but number retired) - although if C's win another one or so & career continues well, you never know....
Ray Allen (not HOF)
Dikembe Mutombo (on & off court so you never know, but I'd say not)
Alonzo Mourning (I think he'll miss out)
Tracy McGrady (no)
Vince Carter (can't see it unless some Finals MVP's or something else happens)
Elton Brand (probably not because of teams he has played for)
Brandon Roy (if he can stay healthy, he's got that sort of potential if Blazers can get title....nice guy)
Tony Parker (the one of the big 3 that will miss out)


anyways, enough of a rant....as can be seen, it's clearly opinion....all subjective....

in the end, I wouldn't be upset for Grant if he was HOF, I'd be very happy & hope he can get a title (along with Nash) to end his career

[el badman]

That's a tough one...
At the level he was playing early in his career, and since he was eventually able to overcome serious injuries and play again at a more-than-average level, it would make sense for him to be inducted.
But he's missed such a buttload of games overall, and he never really achieved what everyone was expecting from him at first, being sidelined all the time...I don't think there's a chance he'll make it to the HOF.

[Mandich]

I thought I'd never say this but...The X...U are a complete idiot!

Firstly your predictions was great, but then....

Paul Pierce not in HOF....thats is ridiculous man. He is not a firs ballot type of guy, but he will definitely end up there
Ray Allen (not HOF)-Oh my god, arguably the best shooter ever to play in the NBA, and you say he will not make the HOF, damn dude, you on some drugs?
Dikembe Mutombo-Definitely will come in. He has done so much off the court as well, and his finger is known across the world. Also is the 2nd in league history when it comes to blocked shots, played in NBA-finals, played in the dramatic 2001 ASG, secure place for him

and now its the one that suprised me the most...
Vince Carter (can't see it unless some Finals MVP's or something else happens)

2 time All-star game leading vote getter, SDC champion, by 99% the best dunker to play in the NBA. high career numbers, was a fan favorite, clutch as hell(Missed only 1 clutch shot against Philly in the Play-offs), how many times was he an All-star. If you brought Manu in, then whats wrong with Vinsanity????
Both won Olympics, I know Ginobili won championships, but VC is in TOP 10 when it comes to popularity in the NBA history, maybe even TOP 5!

[hova-]

Well VC lacks the kind of winner mentality. When his body declines, his game declined. Imho you could vote him into the HOF, but he is not for sure.

Im more of a "get only the elite guys into it" fan. So there are many X has named that I would not want to see in there. But the list is pretty much complete as it stands.

(oh and I would want Dirk in there for sure , a German in the Basketball HOF would be so great. And imo he deserves it .. the whole "7-footer who can shoot" thing and his MVP award as the first European as well as his stats and trip to the finals .. should be enough I hope )

[Patr1ck]

I honestly agree with The X and el badman. If he were to retire now, I don't think he would get in. His college career may get him in, though. I don't mind if he gets in or doesn't, but I think it can go either way unless he can be a part of a winner, or even a very good consistent winner who never wins it all(Stockton/Malone/Jazz) before his career is over.

[el badman]

Dikembe Mutombo (on & off court so you never know, but I'd say not)

I think that for these few years where he really dominated the league defensively (and was somewhat of an offensive threat as well), but mostly for all his contributions off the court (probably the most generous player to ever grace the league), Mutombo might have a shot. I think he'd honestly deserve it, but I'm not sure to what extent this could be taken into account as far as HOF considerations...

[The X]

firstly Mandich, I couldn't care what you think....I gave my opinion on who I thought would be in HOF based on their selection criteria, not mine....but to clarify for others my reason on the aforementioned:

Mutombo, I kind of would want to see him make it....I just gave my opinion....he might as big influence in Africa, but that's getting in not just as a player IMHO....

Pierce, I am a huge fan of his, but frankly, was he HOF before last season's title?!? be honest here....yes, his jersey was always going to get retired but I don't think he was even in HOF discussion....the title they won last season puts him in the discussion....continued playoff success will lock him in....

Carter, I just don't see it....if he has some more playoff success, then it might happen....but if Pierce is a lock for some, then you'd have to consider Carter just behind him....

Ray Allen seems like a nice guy so you never....if Reggie makes it, which he will, then Allen is definitely a chance....winning another title wouldn't hurt....

just remember, just because a player is great for his era doesn't mean he is a HOF-er....most, if not all the the guys on the 2nd list all have the capability to make it, but something (injuries, perceived attitude problems, lack of winning especially in playoffs) may hold them back....some may & probably will make HOF, they just might have to wait....

so the question which is posed before, how does a player like Robert Horry fit into the equation....for me, he doesn't figure in at all....even though he is a key part of 7 or 8 titles over the 90's & 00's, he's not that special player that deserves recognition....but then again, the Hall has it's own selection criteria, so you never know....

[[Q]]

Don't forget it's a Basketball Hall of fame not an NBA hall of Fame so his antics at Duke could get him in.

[Andrew]

Dwayne Wade (wait & see if he holds up....if he does, then 1st ballot)
Chris Paul (wait & see if he holds up....if he does, then 1st ballot)
Deron Williams (not looking like it yet, but you never know, especially if healthy & Jazz stay at top of West)
Carmelo Anthony (not looking like it yet, but you never know)
Chris Webber (Not completely sold on C-Webb, but he might be HOF, just not 1st ballot)
Paul Pierce (Not HOF, but number retired) - although if C's win another one or so & career continues well, you never know....
Ray Allen (not HOF)
Dikembe Mutombo (on & off court so you never know, but I'd say not)
Alonzo Mourning (I think he'll miss out)
Tracy McGrady (no)
Vince Carter (can't see it unless some Finals MVP's or something else happens)
Elton Brand (probably not because of teams he has played for)
Brandon Roy (if he can stay healthy, he's got that sort of potential if Blazers can get title....nice guy)
Tony Parker (the one of the big 3 that will miss out)

I see where you're coming from on those players but I'd rate their chances a bit better than that. I wouldn't call them a lock per se but based on the others who have been selected then I think they at least have a shot. They achieved a certain level of fame, success and importance in the era in which they played which I think very loosely makes up the criteria of enshrining a player in the Hall of Fame.

It's interesting though, on basketball-reference.com Bill Walton's Hall of Fame probability is given as 25.8%, though he was in fact inducted in 1993. In comparison, Grant Hill's probability is given as 83% so by the numbers if Bill Walton is worthy then Grant Hill is definitely worthy though the formula they use doesn't necessarily accurately represent the selection criteria or take all possible factors into account. But it also suggests that numbers aren't the be-all, end-all of a player getting into the Hall of Fame.

[The X]

Bill Walton was one of greatest college players ever....he's in on that, with the 1977 Finals MVP capping it off....

the way I see it is that about 2 NBA players get inducted each year....once you factor in the locks (1-2 per year), it doesn't leave much room for the fringe guys....I can see some of the players (guys like Wade excluded of course) having to wait 5, maybe 10 or 15 years for their shot, much like Adrian Dantley had to....and in 10 or 15 years time, time passes by, they'll be remember as a very good player for their time, but that's where it may end....

I look at a player like Mitch Richmond, who I don't consider HOF-er....but I consider him more worthy than Vince Carter at this point....if Vince is HOF, then I'd consider Bernard King HOF ahead of him at this stage....

What about Artis Gilmore, IMHO he's HOF ahead of Mutombo....

I forgot to add John Stockton, Karl Malone & Allen Iverson to 1st ballot HOF-ers....so as you can see, in the next few years, a backlog will slowly start to build....

my main point is it's a numbers game & some of these players will miss out....of the list I said would miss out, I would list Paul Pierce, Chris Webber & Dikembe Mutombo as most likely to get a sniff, but have to wait....then maybe Ray Allen....

[Kenny]

I personally don't think Grant Hill should be in the HOF. Nothing against the guy, in fact, I think he's a great player, I just don't think he really deserves that legendary status. Hall of famers should be superlative players of their time, and I don't Hill is in all honesty.

[NovU]

Me too, I don't think he should be considered for HOF.
For bit of comparison, Grant Hill played 761 games which is less than Shareef Abdul-Rahim's 836 games and statline isn't much better than Rahim's.
Imho, HOF should be something more hard to earn.
If it wasn't for the injury, he could have been, but that's another story.

[Andrew]

my main point is it's a numbers game & some of these players will miss out....of the list I said would miss out, I would list Paul Pierce, Chris Webber & Dikembe Mutombo as most likely to get a sniff, but have to wait....then maybe Ray Allen....

But by the numbers, Grant Hill is more "worthy" than Bill Walton (at least according to basketball-reference.com's formula), so it becomes a case of "If Player X is enshrined, why not Player Y?"

I do agree that Hill is less likely to make the Hall and he makes a weaker bid having missed so many games and the length of his run as a top flite player in the league cut short without a championship or even modest playoff success on his resume but depending on what happens next in his career, I think he's got at least an outside chance especially if he can be a key player on a championship team before his career is over.

[The X]

he's definitely a chance Andrew....if Joe Dumars can make it, then Grant Hill would have to be considered....although I feel he needs to be a key component in a surprising Suns' title to get there....maybe a Finals MVP out of nowhere, or key playoff performances....

as for the numbers game, I was referring to there only being so many spots allocated to NBA players in each HOF class (about 2 a year)....Bill Walton was one of greatest college ballers of all-time & left his mark all over the history books....I think the T-blazers' Cinderella title essentially secured his spot....

all that being said, I got no problem with Hill making it as he seems like a top notch bloke....unfortunately he hasn't had the best luck....

[Andrew]

Ah, my mistake. I definitely agree there, as long as they are going to pick and choose between the different categories in each HOF class then anyone who kind of walks the line as far as being "worthy" for induction will be made to wait their turn.

[shadowgrin]

I forgot to add John Stockton, Karl Malone & Allen Iverson to 1st ballot HOF-ers.

Good thing you remembered X. I was about to call you a complete idiot after reading your first post in the thread for such an omission.

Paul Pierce not in HOF....thats is ridiculous man. He is not a firs ballot type of guy, but he will definitely end up there
Ray Allen (not HOF)-Oh my god, arguably the best shooter ever to play in the NBA, and you say he will not make the HOF, damn dude, you on some drugs?
Dikembe Mutombo-Definitely will come in. He has done so much off the court as well, and his finger is known across the world. Also is the 2nd in league history when it comes to blocked shots, played in NBA-finals, played in the dramatic 2001 ASG, secure place for him

and now its the one that suprised me the most...
Vince Carter (can't see it unless some Finals MVP's or something else happens)

2 time All-star game leading vote getter, SDC champion, by 99% the best dunker to play in the NBA. high career numbers, was a fan favorite, clutch as hell(Missed only 1 clutch shot against Philly in the Play-offs), how many times was he an All-star. If you brought Manu in, then whats wrong with Vinsanity????
Both won Olympics, I know Ginobili won championships, but VC is in TOP 10 when it comes to popularity in the NBA history, maybe even TOP 5!

Dennis Rodman deserves to be in the HOF more than VC, Pierce, or Ray Allen.

[Andrew]

Rodman might have pushed his eligibility back by playing overseas though. The rule for players is that they must be retired for five years and it's been about nine years since Rodman last played in the NBA, but with the games he's played in Europe he's technically not been retired for five or more years, just out of the NBA.