Rumor: Raptors going for J. O'Neal, Diaw

[benji]

Bah. Ford is an upgrade over Tinsley and Diener. Plus they get Nesterovic and Baston. And then with the pick they managed to luck into Hibbert.

Yes, Toronto got rid of Ford who they could have never kept and maximized with Calderon. But consider what they got in return for him.

Why wasn't there a Ford for Mike Miller deal on the table? Since the Grizzlies apparently want to assemble a team of nothing but point or combo guards plus Darko. (Not that I'm discounting this as the greatest idea in history, I'm looking forward to the Gay, Warrick, Kwame for Nate Robinson, Stephon Marbury and Jamal Crawford deal.)

[Lamrock]

T.J. Ford is actually a really good PG. If he ever stays healthy, I bet he makes an all-star game or two. He is definitely better than a PG made of glass with a much bigger inferiority complex. In fact, I think I might trade for T.J. in my dynasty. His PER was only .8 less than Nash this year.

I am pretty sure Memphis plays Crittenton and Mayo at the 2, leaving them with 3 PG's. Don't forget Mardy Collins in the Knicks trade.

Still love the trade for both teams.

[Indy]

Hibbert is going to be a monster.

Benji, I'm surprised you like him, I thought we were going to have to have an argument about his rebounding.

[benji]

I don't understand what the big complaint about his rebounding is? People make it out like he's Cliff Robinson. He only played 26 minutes, and Georgetown wasn't exactly the fastest paced team. I guess his defensive boards are lower than you expect, but I'm as always more interested in offensive boards. He probably won't get as much offense run through him in the NBA, so like Horford, I would expect him to maintain much of his rebounding performance. I'd call 2005-06 and 2006-07 "good" rebounding seasons. I have no clue about the drop off in his overall game this year though.

[Indy]

I don't understand what the big complaint about his rebounding is? People make it out like he's Cliff Robinson. He only played 26 minutes, and Georgetown wasn't exactly the fastest paced team. I guess his defensive boards are lower than you expect, but I'm as always more interested in offensive boards. He probably won't get as much offense run through him in the NBA, so like Horford, I would expect him to maintain much of his rebounding performance. I'd call 2005-06 and 2006-07 "good" rebounding seasons. I have no clue about the drop off in his overall game this year though.

Georgetown runs a princeton offense, so I actually think he will get more low post touches in the NBA.

Espcially when we use lineups like Ford/B-Rush/Dunleavy/Granger/Hibbert. Offensively we can spread the floor and let those three who are excellent at playing off the ball run off of his screens and get open looks. When that doesn't happen, he will get the ball dumped in to him, or T.J. Ford will create and he will likely end up with a lot of open dunks.

I expect Hibbert to play a big role for the Pacers.

[benji]

Maybe as a total number, but as a percentage of the team? I'd think it'd be lesser that way.

Copying from other thread as reference...

So it's Memphis vs Pacers next year on the Finals, courtesy or resident homers Mafia and Indy.

Disclaimer: Indy might be a little upset now that they traded away Bayless, but he'll still say they'll be perennial contenders, etc, etc.

There's reason to homer. A projection for the Pacers without Hibbert, Rush, Baston, etc. Assuming no injuries.

53-29, Off: 109, Def: 104
[table][mrow]Player[mcol]MPG[mcol]PPG[mcol]RPG*[mcol]APG[mcol]Usg
[row]foster,jeff[col]26.5[col]7.2[col]9.4[col]1.4[col]6%
[row]murphy,troy[col]31.3[col]14.0[col]8.1[col]2.3[col]18%
[row]granger,danny[col]36.1[col]20.2[col]6.1[col]2.1[col]25%
[row]dunleavy,mike[col]36.1[col]19.7[col]5.2[col]3.5[col]24%
[row]ford,t.j.[col]33.7[col]17.8[col]2.8[col]8.8[col]27%
[row]nesterovic,rasho[col]19.3[col]7.3[col]4.4[col]0.9[col]14%
[row]diener,travis[col]14.5[col]5.0[col]1.2[col]2.7[col]18%
[row]daniels,marquis[col]12.0[col]4.8[col]1.7[col]1.0[col]21%
[row]rush,kareem[col]12.0[col]4.8[col]1.3[col]0.7[col]21%
[row]williams,shawne[col]12.0[col]5.6[col]2.2[col]0.7[col]22%
[row]harrison,david[col]7.2[col]2.4[col]1.2[col]0.1[col]16%[/table]

[Lamrock]

How do you calculate the Defensive and overall records?

[[Q]]

Jeff Foster is a rebounding machine. he can out rebound the rest of the team with one arm. i love that guy.

[benji]

How do you calculate the Defensive and overall records?

The defensive points per possession is calculated the same as the offensive one. Using...uh...points and possessions.

The overall record is derived from pythagorean methods, as is standard. Two primary, two alternate and one derived from player wins and losses. If they all agree, I'll say "53-29" if they don't I'll say "51-55 wins." The differences expand based on how strong the data is. (i.e. using a bunch of players who didn't play very many minutes can return 15-67 using one method and 67-15 using another.)

I consider the projections to be fairly strong because when actual player data from that season is used with proper minute distribution it returns the same results as the actual pythag. record using team totals. Usually within one win due to rounding errors. (ex: I will input 75.36% for minutes instead of 75.3639556161891164%.)

I notice now I missed Jarret Jack, and the likely departure of Shawne Williams. Doubt it would change things too terribly much. I wasn't saying they will win 53 games next season anyhow. Merely that they're capable of a 50 win season.

Now, for the players, the points and assists are derived from the collective data and player rates. The rebounds are merely prorated to their new minutes, thus the *.

[Indy]

Jeff Foster is a rebounding machine. he can out rebound the rest of the team with one arm. i love that guy.

I hope we keep him. He is going to keep doing what he does for a long time and he helps you win games. Him and Hibbert on the floor is a rebounding dream. Hibbert can seal off multiple guys and Foster can shake free from anyone.

I see Hibbert blocking out with Foster swooping in for an offensive rebound happening all the time.

I don't really understand benji's projection though. I like T.J. Ford, but I don't know if he can take a 36 win team and turn it in to a 53 win team just like that. I hope you are right benji, that's for sure.

[benji]

The projection doesn't say that simply adding T.J. Ford turns a "36 win" team into a "53 win" team though. Notice the minute allocations, and the note in the post that all players are playing 82 games.

[NovU]

hibbert will be a great player. one of few legitimate centers in the league. not that he'll be a scoring monster but he'll be a force to be felt by opponents. ford and hibbert only makes indy better. i wish to seem them playing a full season without injury.

[cyanide]

Why wasn't there a Ford for Mike Miller deal on the table?

I love Mike Miller and I'd love to get him on the Raptors, but I think the Raptors needed a big man that could rebound and play defense than another player who can't play defense and can hit the threes. Granted, he'd be a big upgrade over any one of our forwards, but still. Hopefully Bosh will take some pressure off of Jermaine on the offensive end, and hopefully he won't get too many games off because of injuries. It's a gamble, but it helps the team's needs.

Hibbert is going to be a monster.

Didn't you say that about David Harrison?

[kinokong]

plus he just got traded so doesn't that put limitations on him. also memphis had more than enough point guards in lowry and conley and now jaric..

[Andrew]

I'm interested to see what happened to Bargnani now. I'd be surprised if the Raptors were giving up on him so quickly but the pairing of Bosh and O'Neal in the frontcourt isn't going to give him a lot of opporunity to get out on the floor. Granted, if they wanted to run a big lineup at times they could perhaps get away with Bosh at small forward but they probably wouldn't do that frequently if at all.

[kinokong]

maybe he could come off the bench to develop into a kukoc type of player..... in both galinari and bargnani, i see more toni kukoc than dirk nowitzki

[Andrew]

I'd say so, I certainly don't see him starting ahead of Bosh and doubt they'd trade for O'Neal just to have him ride the bench. But like I said, with that duo up front it doesn't leave a great amount of PT for Bargnani.

[kinokong]

oneal isnt the most durable player out there. if mitchell is smart, he'll play him around 32 minutes a game and give him plenty of rest. that should leave enough pt for bargnani.

[Andrew]

True, if they do that with O'Neal and Bosh plays around about the same amount of minutes as he did last season that should leave Bargnani at least around 25 minutes per game. I could see him being pushed aside a lot though if O'Neal is healthy.

[Its_asdf]

Well it's pretty obvious that right now Bargnani is not starting C or even starting PF material. I'm fairly confident that he'll be getting ample playing time off the bench like he did last year, since he thrived in more of a long ball scoring role off the bench. He was adjusting to a new role in the 07-08 season as the Raptors tried to mold him into a starting centre who bangs inside/rebounds, but that pretty much failed miserably.

[Andrew]

Well, you can't force a player to be something he's not. I just wonder what the future holds for him since that experiment failed and he's going to be behind O'Neal and Bosh now.

[Skills]

There's always the idea of playing Bargnani at the 3.
He gets to do more of what he's capable of doing. (Shooting threes)

[Andrew]

I can't see that working out all that well, at least not for any extended period of time.

[kinokong]

well, he does have the range and ballhandling capabilities to be a 3 ala rashard lewis. his length and smarts would give other teams fits if he could ever become a 3. but he'd get ripped apart by the shawn marions, lebron james, and other athletic 3's in the league.

[Alejandrov011]

He is more a 3 than a 4 bargnani... He like a Rashard Lewis or a kind of Matt Bullard... He need to develop his shooting to keep playing