Well, Stockton coming out of college was basically a nobody...
True. And of course, there's no guarantee that an unknown talent with a lot of potential will actually become anything special. There's probably too many unrealistic expectations placed upon young players - rather than finding the proverbial "diamond in the rough", teams are seeking to create them.
High schoolers and low draft picks that show promise have caused lottery teams to seek out the underrated and sometimes unknown and take them with high picks, because there's a chance there'll be the next KG/Kobe/T-Mac (high schooler who makes college ball look unnecessary) or Emanuel Ginobili (low profile second rounder who turns out to be better than expected - in his rookie year, no less). Rather than make a safer pick, teams make a choice based on potential; that's no secret.
On the other hand, do you risk making a safe pick and watching the promising player you passed over develop into a player you could really use on your team? There's always going to be the player a team should have chosen, the "if the (insert year here) draft was held again today" talk, but if you have a gut feeling about a player, should you trust your instincts and take a chance?
Whichever way you go, you're going to leave one option behind. Another case of "damned if you do, damned if you don't" - I guess we'll see if any teams are willing to take a chance on Pavel come draft day.