Official '04 BIRDIE BOARD: Submit your stats! ...still!

[HonorGlow]

After introducing the Birdie board in my dynasty, I've been somewhat fascinated of how this 'formula to quantify a player's contribution' can be implemented into our NLSC community and test out 'who has the best and most realistic dynasty'.

Birdies defined by ESPN.com:

Birdies, for the uninitiated, are the end product of a formula Larry Bird devised long ago to quantify a player's contribution to overall team success. Bird likes to add a player's points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocked shots ... and then subtract his missed shots, missed free throws, personal fouls and turnovers ... and then divide the total by the number of games played.

PHASE ONE:
So, I spent some time writing some code that would translate the raw PSTAT*.TXT file into Player Birdie Points and added a weighting system based on the number of player's games/over team's total games. In addition. I bugged Cocobee for about every five minutes to choke up his player stats.

OVERALL, here's the results so far...the RAW SCORE:


PROBLEMS: well heck yeh. I think everybody knows that Cocobee stat's are more realistic than 95% of the Dynasties out there. And for my team to be blowing away his team by more than 25+ birdie points is crazy. (If you notice, L.Gulmatico on my Dynasty has 33.33 points. I know that this is an over-inflated stat to begin with as I first created this character when I just got started on LIVE, e.g. unrealistic Rating equates to unrealistic stats)

Which now turns into the ADJUSTED SCORE: with PENALTIES
(adjusted for Ind.Blocks/Points/Rebounds/steals/assists & Team Scoring, Blocks, Rebounds, steals, assists)
*** = Dynasty that was affected by recent penalty catagory marked in bold






















In the real world, the Birdie Formula makes a lot of sense as you're comparing Apples with Apples. But in a situation where your comparing dynasties where there are four different difficulty levels, and slider adjustments galore; there has to be an equalizing system(a penalty system if you will for unrealistic/inflated stats)...AND THAT'S WHERE I NEED YOUR HELP.

REQUEST:
To all Dynasty PC Players out there! I NEED MORE DATA TO WORK OFF OF! I am requesting if you could please send me your PLAYER STATS text file when you reach:

Your midreason:
82 game season: @ 41-50 games completed
56 game season: @ 28-34 games completed
28 game season: @ 14-17 games completed
or
Your end of season: when you've played 28, 56, 82 games of course

You can send the ***unaltered*** pstatXX.txt file to honorglow@livedynasty.com. I'll put your RAW score on the birdie board here and your individual player results(unless you don't want it displayed)

Just in case you don't know how: After loading your Dynasty, go to GM's Desk, then select Stats Central, then Player Stats. If it's not selected, Choose your Dynasty team, Season, and the current year and then click Save Stats. The pstatXX.txt file will be located in the playerstats folder in the NBA Live 2004 folder in My Documents.

PHASE TWO:
After getting enough players on the Birdie Board(ie more data), I'll be able to adequately put a penalty point system based on the Dynasty data and real-NBA life data, so that Dynasties that have players with overinflated stats get penalty points based on their overage and that more realistic Dynasties such as Cocobee's will have a proper place towards the top of the board.

I know I sound a bit crazy...but if anything, I think it'll be a fun experience tackling this 'math problem' as a community. Sorry, if it sounded like we're back in school again. There are some obvious discrepancies using the player stats on the team instead of using team's overall stat but I'm hoping(mathematically speaking) that those errors are neglible when you consider the team's whole picture, they are cancelled out. ANY QUESTIONS?

(appended stats)
For your viewing pleasure:
Honor Glow's Laker Team "Birdie" output(2008-09):


Cocobee's Timberwolve Team "Birdie" output(2008-09):

[Donatello]

i will mail you the 2 stats files ASAP from one of my dynasties...one question though, is there any way you might be distributing this code you've written to the public? it could be of great use in leagues (especially mine lol)....but, anyway, great work!!!

[Donatello]

sent

[HonorGlow]

Thanks donatelloforpres for sending your stats!

is there any way you might be distributing this code you've written to the public? it could be of great use in leagues (especially mine lol)....but, anyway, great work!!!

Thanks for the compliments, as soon as we get enough data onto the board to properly determine the skills adjustment/penalty points I will be converting the code to a CGI script so you can go the URL slap the data into a form...submit...and kabam, your results are there! I want to do as much as I can to help the community so if I can have the code easily executed via a webpage...heck why not. So yeh great idea there.

Anyway here's your raw team output, donatelloforpres!

donatelloforpres's Raptor Team "Birdie" output(Mid-season ?03-04?) :


donatelloforpres's Raptor Team "Birdie" output(end-season ?03-04?) :

[Donatello]

i hope some more people reply!!!

[HonorGlow]

Here are some Birdie scores(weighted) from the last 10 MVP's:
2004- Kevin Garnett Birdie Score: 30.29
2003- Tim Duncan Birdie Score: 26.53
2002- Tim Duncan Birdie Score: 28.45
2001- Alan Iverson Birdie Score: 14.96
2000- Shaquille O'Neal Birdie Score: 29.43
1999- Karl Malone Birdie Score: 22.39
1998- Michael Jordan Birdie Score: 20.69
1997- Karl Malone Birdie Score: 27.56
1996- Michael Jordan Birdie Score: 24.66
1995- David Robinson Birdie Score: 28.88

So taking away the extreme end values(no diss on them) of KG and Iverson, just like they do in the Olympics, the average Score of the MVP is 26.07.

So, what does this mean? Well personally, that means I should get flame responses for having my player little H's score of 33.33, as even KG the man couldn't achieve this BUT Dynasty team speaking, no one player on the should have a Score thats significantly above 26.07 and should be 'brought down to reality' by some penalty system. So that's my next food for thought...this will be addressed when we look at each catagory separately.

Anyway, thought you may like to know our MVP's Birdie scores so we have something to base off of.

LOOKING FORWARD TO MORE NLSC PARTICIPATION!

[Donatello]

and, yes, you can remove all those marks, the stats i sent were from 03-04 season

come on guys, give honorglow some of your stats!!!

[HonorGlow]

Okay, it took me an hour and then some but I finally got the temp code going for Penalties on unrealistic block stats(this is one of Lil H.'s obvious "superman powers"

So OVERALL, the adjusted SCORE with BLOCK penalties:


So, oooooh as you can see now, Little H.'s Weighted points went all the way from 33.33 to 26.46. Along with Shaq's superman block abilities brought my Dynasty rating down to 85.51 from 99.06.

I'm a bit fatigued in explaining how I got these deductions but they are based off of the following data:

A look at the last 12 league leaders in block shots aka the Mutombo stat:
Year BPG player
2004 3.61 Theo Ratliff
2003 3.23 Theo Ratliff
2002 3.48 Ben Wallace
2001 3.74 Theo Ratliff
2000 3.72 Alonzo Mourning
1999 3.91 Alonzo Mourning
1998 3.65 Marcus Camby
1997 3.40 Shawn Bradley
1996 4.49 Dikembe Mutombo
1995 3.91 Dikembe Mutombo
1994 4.10 Dikembe Mutombo
1993 4.17 Hakeem Olajuwon

And of course the all-time leader for most blocks per game in one season:
1985 5.56 Mark Eaton

In my next post, I'll explain how I got the formula for the block penalties but for right now, let me just say that it really only affect a player if their BPG is greater than 4.1. And severely punishes players going beyond Eaton's record(makes sense, huh)

Cocobee's dynasty had no problems with any player even coming close, so he stayed put which was to be expected. For Donatello's Dynasty, it only affected him ever so slightly in Mid-Season, as Ben Wallace had 4.3 BPG to penalize him with .16 points...so not much of a penalty. It's a high stat but still in the realistic stage.

ANYBODY GAME TO SEND ME THEIR AUTHENTIC DYNASTY STATS?

Any feedback so far...my brain is straining.

[HonorGlow]

Okay: the next order of business was to evaluate how to penalize the catagory of a player that's scoring too much beyond realism. So, I based it off of our season scoring champions:

2004 Tracy McGrady (Orlando) 28.0
2003 Tracy McGrady (Orlando) 32.1
2002 Allen Iverson (Philadelphia) 31.4
2001 Allen Iverson (Philadelphia) 31.1
2000 Shaquille O'Neal (L.A. Lakers) 29.7
1999 Allen Iverson (Philadelphia) 26.8 ***
1998 Michael Jordan (Chicago) 28.7
1997 Michael Jordan (Chicago) 29.6
1996 Michael Jordan (Chicago) 30.4
1995 Shaquille O'Neal (Orlando) 29.3
1994 David Robinson (San Antonio) 29.8
1993 Michael Jordan (Chicago) 32.6 ***
Avg: 30.01 PPG
***= denotes the high/low of this catagory

and of course the all-time season record set by the man himself:
1962 Wilt Chamberlain 50.4

Since the avg was about 30 PPG, just like I did with the block stat I did give a 10% leeway before penalties kick- due to the fact that although averaging 33 points is rather high, it's not unrealistic(ie Jerry West and Abdul Jabbar in their prime). And just like block catagory, it severely punishes players going beyond Chamberlain's record. Doesn't sound probable but I've read enough posts on the records pages of people getting 100 point games so I know there are some 'ballhoggers' out there. One of my players partly being of the guilty party.

I edited my first post to reflect the new penalty catagory. As you can see, my Dynasty dropped 2nd to last. The only player that had an overage in the three dynasties was Lil H at 38.5 for that season, so no other dynasty scores were affected for this catagory. Also, Lil H is no longer the Birdie Pt leader for his team as he received a 12.15 point penalty for his unrealistic point average.

Closing:
It's pretty cool as things are starting to take shape and the adjusted team points are now within a closer range. and of course, my Dynasty is not way out in front which was to be expected once Penalties kicked it.

BUT to properly put a more accurate penalty system(remember Cocobee's Dynasty should benefit for the fact that it so far has more realistic stats not to mention no penalties so far), I NEED MORE DATA and help from you guys...emocore@polarcomm.com is where you can sent that pstat file. I'd appreciate your participation.

[HonorGlow]

I added rebound penalties too but nobody in any dynasty was assessed any penalties in that category( can you believe that in the last 12 years, the avg rebound leader was 15 RPG! Dennis Rodman had a lot to with that)

I also added the NLSC dynasty to the first post so you can see how they ranked: Here's their player breakdown:

Although they went without penalty at all, something is still amiss as the team birdie score is rather high.

Therefore, my next coding session will be to formulate an approximate team scoring average based on the player stats. This is trickier than you would think, because trades and adding/releasing players tends to skew the results. So I'll have to look at a vast load of data to get some approximations…I think this will make the NLSC ranking go a bit lower and will bring my Dynasty to it's rightful place…under Cocobee's due to my high scoring fiascos.

Okay, I noticed that I haven't been getting a lot of people's stats, then I realized not everybody plays 82 game seasons(duh) So, I'm loosening the requirements.

Sooooooooo, as long as you're at the end or middle of your 28/56/82 game season, I'd still love to get your data! emocore@polarcomm.com is my address.

[TheBigEasy]

I have just mailed you my dynasty stats. Let me know if there are problems.

TBE

[HonorGlow]

Alright! Here you go Big Easy...your results for your Hornets Dynasty



No Penalties as of right not. But what I do see is a lot of potent offense so once I implement the Team Scoring penalty you might get dinged a little bit. We'll have to see how that pans out.

Yeh, your tab delimited file from your excel worked decently well! I just had to do some minor tweaks as it showed a figure such as 4,321 as 4.321
But once this thing gets off the ground, I definitely will need your help making it more concise as you seem to be Mr.Stat man!

...NLSC, keep the pstat files rolling!

[TheBigEasy]

Ahm ... no, I havent extracted this from an Excel file , although my PM may have said otherwise. After the season, I went to stats central and saved the stats for the whole league. That was this file. I merely deleted all non-Hornets players.

Normally large numbers would be displayed 4,321 ... but my excel sheet didnt work well with this numbers, so I had to change it to 4.321.

But anyways ... were am I in the list?

TBE

[HonorGlow]

Thanks Big Easy....yeh believe me, I spent about half any hour writing code to get around that 4,321 comma thing...sucky. Anyway, to inform ya'll the first post of this thread will always be 'dynamic' whenever I get more stats. So just check the first post, and you'll be listed there for the adjusted score.

...today is the ultimate in stat research and analysis...yes, team scoring penalties...

[TheBigEasy]

Thanks Big Easy....yeh believe me, I spent about half any hour writing code to get around that 4,321 comma thing...sucky. Anyway, to inform ya'll the first post of this thread will always be 'dynamic' whenever I get more stats. So just check the first post, and you'll be listed there for the adjusted score.

...today is the ultimate in stat research and analysis...yes, team scoring penalties...

Uhm ... äh you could have just used the search and change function of the MS notepad. Search for , and change it to . Its just 10 seconds work .

Oh and you have actually written a program to measure the Bird formula? Why not just do it in Excel?

TBE

[Jay-Peso]

Nice work HonorGlow.

This was a good idea, very good idea that is

[Alcoholic]

I'd send u my stats but I only have about 8 games played so far...

[HonorGlow]

Uhm ... äh you could have just used the search and change function of the MS notepad. Search for , and change it to . Its just 10 seconds work .

Oh and you have actually written a program to measure the Bird formula? Why not just do it in Excel?

TBE

I could have but remember you there are percentages that have .'s as well...so would have...well doesn't matter, It didn't take long.

The reason why I'm not doing it on excel is because I'm converting this Perlscript to be embedded in html eventually....not sure if I can embed excel into html.

[HonorGlow]

Yikes now I know why somebody hasn't gone through and coded this type of Penalty system in the first place...your brain is so much wracked in numbers just doing the research that by the time you get to the actual coding. you want to throw away anything resembling a calculator!

Whew...so after much needed rest, I based the penalty system again off of the last 12 years of team scoring leaders:

2004 Dallas 105.2 PPG
2003 Dallas 103.0 PPG
2002 Dallas 105.2 PPG
2001 Sac 101.7 PPG
2000 Sac 105.0 PPG
1999 Sac 100.2 PPG***
1998 Lakers 105.5 PPG
1997 Chicago 103.1 PPG
1996 Chicago 105.2 PPG
1995 Orlando 110.9 PPG
1994 Phoenix 108.2 PPG
1993 Phoenix 113.4 PPG ***
***=represents hi/low
Average PPG: 105.3 PPG

And the record for Highest average, points per game, season:
1982 Denver 126.5 PPG

This was the catagory that was really the NLSC Dynasty's "fall from the top", receiving 40.69 points in penalties due to a high 118 PPG approximate average. Big Easy took a little bit of a hit as well, having a 109.56 PPG approximate average but only 7.89 points in penalties. (refer to the first post for results)

...more on this soon. Must go for now.

BTW, Alcoholic, when you get to your midway point...send me your stats!

[HonorGlow]

Okay it's time for the catagory of individual steals:

Top Steal per Game leader, last 12 Seasons:

2004 Baron Davis (New Orleans Hornets) 2.36 ***
2003 Allen Iverson (Philadelphia) 2.74
2002 Allen Iverson (Philadelphia) 2.80
2001 Allen Iverson (Philadelphia) 2.51
2000 Eddie Jones (Charlotte) 2.67
1999 Kendall Gill (New Jersey) 2.68
1998 Mookie Blaylock (Atlanta) 2.61
1997 Mookie Blaylock (Atlanta) 2.72
1996 Gary Payton (Seattle) 2.85
1995 Scottie Pippen (Chicago) 2.94
1994 Nate McMillan (Seattle) 2.96 ***
1993 Michael Jordan (Chicago) 2.83

And the all-time leader in steals:
1985 Alvin Robertson (San Antonio) 3.67

So out this data, the average league leader stole 2.73 per game. This is the beginning point of the penalty and it increases proportionally until you get to Alvin Robertson's record. Just like in all of the individual catagoes prior to this one, if your player goes past the record holder, not only do you not get credit for that catagory but ALSO you get an additional fractioned penalty.

The Results?
Well out all the current dynasties listed noone really came that close to getting penalized...except of course my dude, Lil H, who barely missed the threshold point by being under at 2.7 SPG. the NLSC's leader was PiksS and Campos was the leader for Cocobee's Dynasty. So yeh, everybody's individual players were realistic here.

What's Next :?:
Well, in the individual catagories we did points, rebounds, steals, and blocks...so now let's complete this portion of the project and attack assists next! Stay tuned!

STILL NEEDING MORE DATA FROM DYNASTIES OUT THERE! (emocore@polarcomm.com)

[HonorGlow]

Now it's time to look at the catagory of individual assists!:

Top Assists per Game leader, last 12 Seasons:

Code: Select all

2004   Jason Kidd (New Jersey)      9.2      
2003   Jason Kidd (New Jersey)      8.9 ***
2002   Andre Miller (Cleveland)   10.9
2001   Jason Kidd (Phoenix)      9.8
2000   Jason Kidd (Phoenix)      10.1
1999   Jason Kidd (Phoenix)      10.8
1998   Rod Strickland (WAS)      10.5
1997   Mark Jackson (DEN-IND)   11.4
1996   John Stockton (Utah)      11.2
1995   John Stockton (Utah)      12.3
1994   John Stockton (Utah)      12.6 ***
1993   John Stockton (Utah)      12.0 


And the all-time leader in assists:
1990 John Stockton 14.5 (anybody surprised?)

Okay so you have an average of 10.8 assist for the 12 years of assist leaders. Examining through my current data of dynasties this 'high' is pretty high so I didn't put any buffer handicap at all. Just like any of the previous individual catagories, we give an overage penalty for going over the average leader in this catagory, and give an absolute penalty if you go over Stockton's record. I can see how this stat can be easily blown out of proportion in the rookie level but superstar level tends to pull back this stat quite a bit.

The Results?
Well...really nothing Out of all the current Dynasty data I have, Big Easy's Baron Davis tops out at 8.7 APG and Honor Glow's Spike Faulk at 8.7 APG. So, it's getting closer to that Assist leader average but not quite there. So no dynasty got penalized in this area. If somebody comes along breaking this streak I'll let you know!

Okay Honor Glow, what's Next
Well, if you've been keep tracking, you've seen that in most catagories, most of the Dynasties are keeping on the up and up for individual penalities. However, we took a look at the team scoring approximates and that's where the NLSC dynasty, and to some extent, Big Easy's dynasty took a beating. I'll be looking at team blocks next and see how all the teams fare.

NOTE: the team penalties and the formula's I've derived are wear I'm very suspect about so be patient with me here. When all the data mining is done, I'll post the formula so you guys can punch holes into it and perhaps come up with a more robust and agreeable penalty system. It's been awhile since I was at my mathematical apex so I'd like to get some input or thoughts here. Thanks!

On the first post, I also added Cocobee's latest midseason calculation for the 2009-10 season. Enjoy! He definitely beefed up his score! Oops, I just found an error already, Cocobee is NOT the MVP of his team, it's actually Dwight Howard...I will update this error next post!

[Alcoholic]

Err... it might take awhile... I'm still in November right now..

[HonorGlow]

Sorry about the wait for those who have been keeping in tune with this thread. The long wait is over, as it is now official...

...Honor Glow's Dynasty is now on the bottom of the birdie board.

I knew it would happen with the new team block penalty that I had coded. Okay, the research:

Top Blocks per Game teams(season), last 12 Seasons:

Code: Select all

Year   Team   BPG
2004   DET   6.95
2003   SAN   6.5 ***
2002   DET   6.9
2001   SAN   7.0
2000   DEN   7.5
1999   SAN   7.0
1998   TOR   8.1
1997   LAL   7.0
1996   DEN   7.3
1995   DEN   7.1
1994   DEN   8.4***
1993   PHI   6.9


*** = indicates Hi/Low extremes

So taking out the extremes, we had an average of 7.2 BPG AVG for the best shot blocking teams. The record for highest BPG for a season was done by Washington back in 1985-86 with a 8.7 BPGaverage. Hmmm, not much leeway before you get really penalized.

The Results?
So, using the same penalty principles as before, this affected two of the current dynasties covering four seasons:

- Donatello's end season(5.77 in team block penalties)
- Donatello's mid season(6.86 in block penalties)

"and here's the big surprise"

- Honor Glow(9.42 in block penalties) bringing me down now to last place on the birdie board.
- And my new addition to the board, my 08-09 season, a wholloping 18.84 in shot block penalties (not to mention the 10.56 team scoring penalties)

Like always, the updated Birdie Board can be viewed on the first post.

ug, needless to say, I pulled my shot block ability slider to 50 to 15 now(that's the right direction right?) but I must say that because I run a fastbreak offense which means more possesions(hence more team score penalty) giving me more chances to block shots. (hmmmm, a possible penalty adjustment in the future?)

Anyway...some additional notes:
I made a grave error in the penalty points for team scoring. I was penalizing on the non-weighted bonus but was subtracting the penalty from the weighted Birdie score(shame on me) So this affected Shadyon's Dynasty(new score after penalties is higher now @96.10) and ever so slight for Big Easy's(100.54 to 100.81)

The buffer adjustment hasn't been 'installed' yet to the team block shot approximation to give the Dynasty owner 'a benefit of a doubt' This is due to the fact that we are estimating an approximate team BPG based on using the player stats. Again, players get traded, players get signed, players get released...yatta yatta

SO ANYBODY ELSE READY TO GET THEIR DYNASTY EVALUATED BY MR.BIRD HIMSELF:?:
...the e-mail address as always is, emocore@polarcomm.com

[HonorGlow]

As this sub-board is slightly declining due to the fact that people are gearing up for 2005, I wanted to make sure people know too, yes, I am also excited about NBA Live 2005 coming out... but I realized that I need to get done what I started because I see great potential in this project, eventually(you'll see, I just need to put more elbow grease into it)

Tonight, I'll be coding for the following catagory: Team Assists!

Top teams last 12 Seasons, Assists per Game:

Code: Select all

2004   SAC   26.2
2003   UTAH   25.6
2002   UTAH   24.4***
2001   UTAH   25.7
2000   MIN   26.9
1999   PHO   25.0
1998   PHO   25.9
1997   UTAH   26.8
1996   UTAH   26.1
1995   ORL   27.8
1994   PHO   27.6
1993   CLE   28.6***

And the record was set in the 1985 season none other than the L.A. Lakers @ 31.4 Assists per game. (Are some of you feeling that this may have been their peak season in the 80's)

So taking away the hi-lo's from the last 12 years we get a 26.4 APG for a team.

My feeling is that I won't be seeing any real significant changes from the Dynasty stats that I have thus far. Not many were boasting of Stockan/Kidd-esque type team numbers, but perhaps collectively we'll see something.

Nevertheless, it's all speculation right now...cuz I'm not at home!

MORE TO COME!

[HonorGlow]

whew...keeping up with two threads on this sub-board is no easy task! Well, so where were we? Oh yeah, team assists penalty. Believe or not, Cocobee actually penaltied in this catagory! Well, kind of. After I figured out the buffer approximation to give the team a "benefit of a doubt" (remember we're attempting to estimate a team's APG by using player stats!) he no longer penaltied. It was like for .64 of a point anyway.

The Results?
Naturally, higher scoring teams result in higher potential for assists as well. Therefore, Big Easy and the beloved NLSC(somewhat defunct) Dynasties got penalized.

Big Easy: The program approximated 27.62 Team APG, with that being over our 26.4 APG point, he received an overage penalty of 5.1 points.

Shadyon's NLSC: Remember, if you go past the NBA's record for that catagory, you get reemed BIG TIME. And this is what happened here with the NLSC dynasty. At an estimated 36.43 APG, this definitely disrespected the Laker's 31.4 penalizing the dynasty with a whopping 37.99 points in penalties. This is definitely an area of discussion because in some ways I feel they should get some credit for achieving that many APG BUT again, remember that they are breaking the REAL NBA record, which...at least I think...should never be broken although it is possible.

New Addition:
Match 66 was gracious enough to contribute his stats from his Dynasty, so behold:

Match 66's Cleveland Cavaliers: 2003-04 Mid-season

Carlos Boozer was the team's MVP with a weighted Birdie score of 25.77
This Dynasty is currently ranked #2 on the all-time Birdie Board (and no penalties!)

New Results are posted on the very first post.

What's Next?
So we have two catagories left before Phase Two; team rebounds and team steals. Let's go for team steal penalties first as I'm just curious what we'll find there.

until next time,
ANYBODY ELSE READY TO SEND ME YOUR STATS?