ProjectionsAnalyst: Flavio Tranquillo
Russia vs. SerbiaThe Russians are the clear favorites in this tournament, but that doesn't mean that they can't be upset by the Serbs, who, surprisingly, made it to the quarterfinals by defeating Slovenia. Russia's offense so far has been marvelous, but their defense is a little bit weak. They are not filling gaps on the floor and their favorite man-to-man defense doesn't always work, as Boris Diaw and Gianluca Basile outran both Nikolai Padius and Sergei Monia for easy hoops. Andrei Kirilenko has been a leader for his team so far and a threat to opposing teams, averaging more than 15 points per game. I expect him to be big in the playoffs. Viktor Khryapa has surprised everyone with his athleticism and his good defense. In fact, he is probably one of the better defenders in this tournament.
As for the Serbs, they have done a good job clinging on to qualify to the playoffs. They took down Slovenia just to qualify to the next round. However, their playing style doesn't seem to flow; their offense is choppy and defense is mediocre. Their narrow loss against Latvia is surprising. The only leaders I see in the team are Marko Jaric and Milos Teodosic. Other players occasionally chip in, but most of the points come from those two guys. They showed that they are worth playing by defeating Greece. Serbs just outplayed them that night. Despite this, they have to do a lot of work if they want to rally against Russia and go on to the semifinals.
Lithuania vs. GermanyThe Lithuanians have had no problems qualifying to the semifinals. They won all of their matches in the first phase and only lost to Russia in the second phase. No wonder why. They have sizable and fast players who are potent from the outside and run their plays well on the inside. This is a team that has won many awards since the breakup of Soviet Union. Great basketball players came out of this small country, such as Arvydas Sabonis and Zydrunas Ilgauskas. They are favorites in this tournament. Despite having a great history and great traits, their weakness is fouls and turnovers. Starter center Robertas Javtokas has fouled out at least twice. Sarunas Jasikevicius and Ksystof Lavrinovic each fouled out once. That's one of the factors that led to Lithuania losing against Russia - Jasikevicius and Lavrinovic both fouled out. Lithuanians have to work on that and try to stop Dirk Nowitzki from being the star of the game.
Germany, surprisingly, had no problem qualifying to the semifinals as well. Dirk Nowitzki brushed past dangerous opponents and led his team straight to the playoffs. He is the top scorer and the second top rebounder (after Pau Gasol) in the tournament. He is a leader in the NBA, so he doesn't have a problem dominating in Europe. It seems that none of the other players put much input for Germany. Demond Greene has hit a couple of threes and driven to the basket a couple of times, but inconsistently. Chris Kaman, another "mini-leader" of the team, got injured in a game versus Greece. The Lithuanians might put defensive pressure on Dirk Nowitzki in order to stop him from getting out of control. Germany has to work on distributing the ball to other players so that they could get more chances to score. Dirk Nowitzki won't be on the team forever.
Greece vs. FranceThis will probably be on of the most interesting matches of the tournament. Both teams exhibit magnificent offense and defense. The French team is more athletic, but the Greek team is more "creative", shooting from down-town, going for a layup and shooting from inside. The French show athleticism similar to NBA. France has many NBA players, such as Tony Parker, Mickael Pietrus, Boris Diaw, Ronny Turiaf and Nicholas Batum. These players can play a very high level of basketball, they are destructive and deadly.
Greece, on the other hand, has good three-point shooters and good defenders. Who could forget Vassilis Spanoulis and Dimitris Diamantidis, whose shots keep swishing through the net? Almost none of the Greek players have ever played for NBA, but they are prominent in Europe (playing for Euroleague and Eurocup). Although Greeks have won more awards in Eurobasket than their French counterparts, the French won a silver medal in 2000 Sydney Olympics. Both teams are good, and it will be interesting to watch them play.