benji wrote:Cool story, bro?
Like I said, the PS3 install base is 32-35 million. The best selling version didn't even reach 15 million after a decade out (80% of that time at $20) on a console with a base of 130-150 million.
Even Wii Play, despite being a $10 game and packed with a second Wii-mote, hasn't managed to sell through to more than a third of the Wii user base.
I have no idea why you'd think GT5 will sell to 60% of the PS3 user base. GT5 might sell 80% of its copies in the EU like GT5 Prologue did, but that's not enough to get it past GT3 or probably even GT4 because US sales will most likely be pretty poor for the franchise. The five year wait is also hurting it, a significant swath of the U.S. base went over to Forza and that hasn't exactly lit up the charts.
Of course, we're pretending it even comes out this year.
Benji, my comment in my original post was basically a throw away line. I didn't say GT5 would be best seller. I just said I thought it could be.
I didn't do any research or calculations. It is just that I as a fan of this series can't wait to get this game, and if every other fan feels the same way I believe this will sell very well.
I don't think the wait is hurting this game at all. If GT5 is as good as it looks, then it will be streets ahead of Forza and anyone who went over to Forza will come back to GT. They didn't go over to Forza because they thought it was better than GT. They went because they enjoy the genre and because GT5 isn't out yet, Forza is the best available option.
For example, the car interiors on GT5 are superb. NFS:Shift did a pretty good job on this too. But, GT is a level above because it does the whole interior of the car. Looking back in a Ferrari F430 and seeing this is awesome:

Plus in rally cars they included the co-driver. And the fact that they have animation, instead of just sitting there is a testament to the detail in this game.
GT5 has the NASCAR and WRC licences now. Both of those had their own game series, now they are part of GT5. They will bring new fans over to GT5.
Especially in the US market where NASCAR is popular.
Another exciting addition is the inclusion of these supercars for the first time: Lamborghini Gallardo , Enzo Ferrari , Bugatti Veyron. Obviously there will be more, but those are confirmed so far.
Also speaking of exciting new features, I like that they've added the Top Gear test track to the game. I wonder if the Stig will be the driver when you race there.
It seems that most racing games lately are leaning more towards street racing and drifting. Which GT hasn't done so well yet.
Anyway, I intended this to be a discussion about GT5. Not a debate
I really hope it comes out this year. Most likely it will come out just before Christmas.
Taken from gtplanet.net
Cars in black have been seen in screenshots or have been confirmed by Polyphony through lists
Cars in red have been seen being photographed and tested by Polyphony for the purposes of modeling and may or may not be in GT5
Cars in green have been mentioned by magazines or in interviews as being in the game, yet have not been seen. Also may not be in GT5
Cars featured in the "Vision Gran Turismo" video which were new paintjobs.
Also note that this is not a complete list and there are still plenty of cars to find.
Acura
NSX ('91)
Alfa Romeo
147 TI 2.0 Twin Spark ('06)
Brera Sky Window 3.2 JTS Q4 ('06)
Amuse
S2000 GT1 Turbo
380RS Superleggera (Z33)
(Opera Performance) 350Z RS Gran Turismo
Art Morrison
Corvette Roadster (C1-gen, '60)
ASL
Garaiya (ARTA SuperGT, '08)
Aston Martin
DB9 Coupe ('06)
Audi
R8 R-Tronic ('07)
R8 LMS ('09)
R8 LMS (PlayStation Abt Nur 24, '09)
R8 (PlayStation Team Oreca Le Mans, '05)
R10 TDI (Le Mans, '06)
TT 3.2 Quattro ('03)
TT 3.2 Quattro ('07)
Blitz
Dunlop Skyline (ER34-gen, D1GP '07)
BMW
135i Coupe ('07)
135tii Concept ('08)
M3 Coupe ('07)
Z4 3.0i ('03)
Z4 M Coupe ('08)
Bugatti
Veyron 16.4 ('09)
Chevrolet
Corvette Z06 (C5-gen, '02)
Corvette Z06 (C6-gen, '06)
Corvette ZR-1 (C6-gen, '09)
Impala SS (#14 Tony Stewart NASCAR, '09)
Impala SS (#24 Jeff Gordon NASCAR, '09)
Impala SS (#48 Jimmie Johnson NASCAR, '09)
Impala SS (#88 Dale Earnhardt, Jr. NASCAR, '09)
Citroën
C4 Coupe 2.0VTS ('06)
C4 WRC (Red Bull WRC, '08)
GT Concept ('08)
Daihatsu
Copen Active Top ('02)
OFC-1 Concept ('07)
Dodge
Viper GTS ('02)
Viper SRT-10 Coupe
Viper ACR ('08)
Ferrari
330 P3/4 ('67)
458 Italia ('10)
512BB ('76)
599GTB Fiorano ('06)
California ('09)
Enzo ('02)
F2007 (F1, '07)
F40 ('92)
F430 ('06)
Fiat
500 (original)
Ford
Focus ST ('06)
Focus RS WRC 07 (BP Abu Dhabi WRC, '08)
GT ('05)
GT LM Edition Spec-II Test Car
Mustang GT Premium ('07)
Garage Defend
GT-R ('07)
Grand Touring Garage
Mustang "Trans-Cammer" ('70)
High End Performance
G37 ('07)
HKS
CT230R ('08)
Honda
Civic Hatchback (EK-gen)
CR-Z ('10)
HSV-010 GT ('10)
Insight (2nd gen, '10)
Integra Type-R (DC5-gen, '04)
NSX Type-R (1st gen, '92)
NSX Type-R (2nd gen, '02)
NSX (ARTA SuperGT, '06)
NSX (Takata Dome SuperGT, '06)
NSX (Raybrig SuperGT, '06)
S2000
S2000 (Stephen Papadakis, '05)
HPA
TT ('07)
Infiniti
G35 Coupe
Jaguar
XKR R-Performance ('02)
XK Coupe ('06)
Lamborghini
Countach LP400 ('74)
Countach 25th Anniversary Edition ('88)
Gallardo LP560-4 ('08)
Gallardo LP550-2 Valentino Balboni ('09)
Lancia
Delta HF Intergrale Evoluzione ('91)
Lexus
IS350 (WedsSport SuperGT '08)
IS-F ('07)
LFA ('09)[color]
SC430 (Bandai Direzza SuperGT '06)
SC430 (Petronas Tom's SuperGT '08)
SC430 (Denso Dunlop SARD SuperGT '08)
Lotus
Elise ('96)
Elise Sport 190 ('98)
Elise ('00)
Elise 111R ('04)
Esprit V8 ('02)
Evora ('09)
Maserati
[color=#FF0000]Spyder
Mazda
787B (Le Mans, '91)
Atenza Sport ('07)
Eunos Roadster (NA-gen, '89)
Furai Concept
Roadster (NB-gen)
Roadster (NC-gen, '05)
RX-7 Type-RS-R (FD-gen, '97)
RX-7 Spirit-R Type-A (FD-gen, '02)
RX-8 Type-S ('03)
McLaren
F1 ('94)
Mercedes-Benz
300SL Coupe ('54)
C63 AMG (W204-gen, '08)
SL55 AMG ('02)
SLR McLaren ('03)
SLS AMG ('10)
Mine's
Skyline GT-R N1 Base (R34-gen, '06)
Mini
Cooper S ('06)
Mitsubishi
Lancer Evolution IV GSR ('96)
Lancer Evolution IX GSR ('05)
Lancer Evolution X GSR Premium ('07)
Nissan
(Nismo) Skyline GT-R R-Tune R1 (R33-gen, '99)
350Z ('03)
370Z ('09)
Fairlady Z Version S (Z33-gen, '07)
Fairlady Z (Z34-gen, '10)
Fairlady Z (Xanavi Nismo SuperGT, '06)
Fairlady Z (Xanavi Nismo SuperGT, '07)
GT-R Proto concept ('05)
GT-R "Black Mask" prototype ('07)
GT-R ('08)
GT-R Spec-V ('09)
GT-R (Xanavi Nismo SuperGT, '08)
GT-R (Motul Autech SuperGT, '08)
GT-R (Calsonic Impul SuperGT, '08)
GT-R (Yellow Hat YMS Tomica SuperGT, '08)
Skyline GT-R V-Spec II (R32-gen, '94)
Skyline GT-R V-Spec (R33-gen, '97)
Skyline GT-R V-Spec Nur (R34-gen, '02)
Skyline 370GT Type SP Coupe (V36-gen, '07)
Skyline 350GT Type SP Sedan (V36-gen, '06)
Skyline Coupe Concept ('07)
Pescarolo
C60 Hybrid-Judd (GT4 PlayStation 2 Le Mans, '05)
Peugeot
207GTI ('07)
307CC Premium AVN ('04)
RE Amemiya
RX-7 (FD-gen)
RX-7 (Aspara Drink JGTC, '06)
Renault
Clio Renault Sport V6 24V ('00)
Subaru
Impreza WRX STi Spec-C Type-RA (GD-III gen, '05)
Impreza WRX STi BBS Wheel Option (GE gen, '08)
Impreza WRC98 (Subaru WRC, '98)
Impreza WRC2008 (Subaru WRC, '08)
Suzuki
Cappuccino ('95)
Cervo SR ('07)
Swift Sport ('07)
SX4 WRC (Shell Helix WRC, '08)
Tesla
Roadster Sport ('08)
Toyota
Camry (#11 Denny Hamlin NASCAR, '09)
Camry (#55 Michael Waltrip NASCAR, '09)
Celica GT-Four (TTE WRC, '95)
FT-86 Concept ('09)
FT-86 G Sports Concept ('10)
Prius (3rd-gen, '10)
Sprinter Trueno GT-Apex (AE86-gen, '83)
Supra (Tom's Castrol JGTC, '97)
Supra (Yellow Hat YMS SuperGT, '05)
Trial
Celica SS-II ('03)
TVR
Tamora ('02)
Tuscan Speed Six ('00)
Volkswagen
Golf IV GTi ('01)
Golv V GTI ('05)
Zele
Skyline 370GT Coupe Gran Turismo Edition (V36-gen, '09)