Some thoughts on Greg Oden

[Andrew]

Watching Greg Oden in the Blazers/Spurs game yesterday and glancing at his stats so far in the season, I'm thinking that the bust label that pops up every now and again is being pulled out prematurely. For a centre playing less than half the game, his numbers remain impressive; he's even been knocking down his free throws at a very respectable clip, though admittedly he hasn't had a lot of attempts thus far. He also seems to have a couple of nice moves in the post, he's no Hakeem Olajuwon down low but he's not offensively inept either.

Fouls seem to be his biggest problem. I wouldn't call him a clueless defender - he had some great stops against the Spurs - but at this stage of his career he seems to be picking up quick fouls early in the game (some of which admittedly might not be called on veteran players) and that's limiting his minutes with him getting pulled early to save him for later in the game. If he could stay on the floor for at least 30 minutes a game, I reckon he could give the Blazers at least around 15 and 11 with around 3 blocks for good measure, shooting a very good percentage from the floor.

His health is the other concern at the moment but I think that's blown out of proportion given the Blazers' history of oft-injured centres and the panic caused by him missing what would have been his rookie season a couple of years ago. He missed 21 games last year and was injured in his official NBA debut, but they were unfortunate mishaps, the type of injuries all players are at risk of in a sport like basketball rather than chronic problems related to the surgery he underwent in 2007. On the whole, things still seem to promising with Oden to write him off just yet.

[benji]

If anything we should start wondering about Derrick Rose.

[Andrew]

I'm not too worried about Rose just yet but his numbers thus far definitely aren't all that impressive, even taking into account the drop in minutes.

[NovU]

As for Rose, I think it's his ankle injury still bothering and leading to a bad conditioning. I think he'll pick it up soon.

I agree with what Andrew said pretty much with every word, in exception of last few. Of course, it's too early to write him off, but I don't see how he's going to be the next big man since Timmy D. with such a low basketball IQ. In some meanings, some people already wrote him off as the bust especially considering with the type of hype he came with when he was drafted.

[bowdown]

Yep oden is definitely not going to be next TD as you said but i think him being 2nd best Center in the league in his prime would still be enough to justify his number 1 pick.

[shadowgrin]

Oden becoming like TD, the greatest PF in NBA history? Just the mere thought of that possibility is utterly ridiculous.

[Lamrock]

I know. Duncan has nothing on GO.

[Andrew]

I agree with what Andrew said pretty much with every word, in exception of last few. Of course, it's too early to write him off, but I don't see how he's going to be the next big man since Timmy D. with such a low basketball IQ.

I'm not exactly sure what you're disagreeing with then as I never said anything about him becoming the next Tim Duncan, mentioned Duncan by name in my post, suggested that Oden had a high basketball IQ that was comparable to Duncan or claimed that he'd be the next great big man compared to anyone. I just said that things still seem too promising for him to be written off as a bust.

[NovU]

I'm not exactly sure what you're disagreeing with then

That things are looking promising.

But I think I know what you meant by it. Most people I think realized that he's not likely to turn out to be a player once everyone expected him to be, but it seems he'll be a solid one, and that's within a reach quite possibly.

[Lamrock]

To be honest, every time I watch the Blazers, Oden seems to suck, but at the end of the day, he puts up great stats. He's still raw, but he has potential to be a perennial all-star and all-NBA defender.

[Andrew]

I'm not exactly sure what you're disagreeing with then

That things are looking promising.

How are they not? Oden becoming a dominant big man is a far off goal and let's face it, one he may never quite reach but in terms of having a productive career I would suggest that things are quite promising. His production is impressive given his limited playing time and there have been big men who have looked far more useless out on the court than he does.

[NovU]

In that sense, you are right. I was referring to his slow and timid development considering the hype he came with. But if the Blazers are content of current Oden and his progress, I guess things do look promising.

[Andrew]

If we're talking about him exploding into a 20 and 10 player and being a dominant force comparable to Duncan or Shaq in his prime, then I would agree that's far from a given. He might not end up being the best player from his draft class, but that's not necessarily a bad thing as he might end up being just the player that the Blazers need in the middle with Brandon Roy being the actual franchise player.

[Lamrock]

His 14 and 13 per36 is nothing to scoff at, his 59% shooting is excellent and his 94 defensive rating is amazing. People call him a bust, but he is arguably the second best Center in the West behind Bynum.

[J@3]

Who'd argue that? Chris Kaman is averaging 22, 9 and 2 blocks on 57% shooting. Marc Gasol 14/10/2, Emeka Okafor 11/10/2 also.

[benji]

But the best Center in the West so far is Dampier.

Don't mess with The Big Damp in a Contract Year.

[Andrew]

His 14 and 13 per36 is nothing to scoff at, his 59% shooting is excellent and his 94 defensive rating is amazing. People call him a bust, but he is arguably the second best Center in the West behind Bynum.

He had 18 and 11 today (8/10 FG) in 26 minutes, with his zero fouls perhaps being the most impressive stat in the line today. If he can keep out of foul trouble and play 26-32 minutes per game, I still believe he'll prove himself a good investment for the Blazers.

[Kenny]

He's got massive potential that's for sure. I'm not sure about him on the offensive end, but he's a monster on the boards. If he stays fit and out of foul trouble, there's no reason why he couldn't be a premier centre of the game. I always thought taking Thabeet at 2 was a bigger mistake than Oden at 1, but time will tell.

[Andrew]

He'll probably never have a truly slick offensive game like a Tim Duncan or Hakeem Olajuwon, but he seems to have a couple of moves and looks comfortable going to that little hook. With enough touches and his ability to snare offensive rebounds, I reckon he can be good for anywhere between 12 and 18 ppg given the PT.

[bowdown]

another solid game 8 points 12 rebounds 3 blocks.
wasnt in foul trouble in the game and okafor was a non factor due to him

[Oznogrd]

okafor was a non factor due to him

his stats so far this year say that has less to do with oden and more to do with okafor...

[Lamrock]

Kevin Durant seems to be the only #2 pick this decade to not be a bust.

[Andrew]

Kevin Durant seems to be the only #2 pick this decade to not be a bust.

It's a bit early to write off Michael Beasley just yet and LaMarcus Alridge isn't doing too badly either. Okafor has perhaps fallen short of expectations, but he's a serviceable big man. Looking back through the decade as a whole though, I'd have to agree that the #2 picks have by and large been flops this decade.

[NovU]

http://www.nba.com/2009/news/features/s ... index.html

Pretty interesting article from NBA.com

Mike Beasley is a disappointment without doubts.

[Andrew]

I don't entirely agree with the article. Fouls are certainly still a problem and he's hardly what I'd call polished offensively, but as I said in my first post he seems to have a couple of moves that could become dependable weapons. So long as he can do damage down low, he doesn't need to be superb from midrange (though it wouldn't hurt to have that weapon as well) and him getting blocked by a shorter player - one listed two inches shorter, not four - on one play is hardly an indictment. It happens to everyone at times and Horford averages a respectable 1.8 blocks per game at any rate.