Your Current Monte Carlo Projected Standings!

[benji]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/fri ... f_prob.cgi

The Boston Celtics and Charlotte Hornets!

1. Boston Celtics (50-32)
2. Charlotte Hornets (50-32)
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (50-32)

Here's the rest of the East and the shockingly bad West:
4. Toronto Raptors (49-33)
5. Indiana Pacers (49-33)
6. Chicago Bulls (47-35)
7. Miami Heat (45-37)
8. Atlanta Hawks (44-38)
9. Detroit Pistons (44-38)
10. Orlando Magic (41-41)
11. Washington Wizards (36-46)
12. New York Knicks (36-46)
13. Milwaukee Bucks (31-51)
14. Brooklyn Nets (30-52)
15. Philadelphia 76ers (17-65)

1. Golden State Warriors (66-16)
2. San Antonio Spurs (60-22)
3. Oklahoma City Thunder (52-30)
4. Los Angeles Clippers (45-37)
5. Utah Jazz (44-38)
6. Dallas Mavericks (41-41)
7. Phoenix Suns (39-43)
8. Memphis Grizzlies (38-44)
9. Portland Trail Blazers (38-44)
10. Minnesota Timberwolves (37-45)
11. Sacramento Kings (36-46)
12. Houston Rockets (35-47)
13. Denver Nuggets (32-50)
14. New Orleans Pelicans (30-52)
15. Los Angeles Lakers (20-62)

[NovU]

Hornets are really interesting team this year since they made a big change in their style of basketball.

They moved away from posting up Al Jeff on every possession. And perhaps injury of MKG was a blessing in disguise. They are now spaced out better and suited to play 4+1 modern era basketball. Addition of versatile Batum changed the dynamics.

[benji]

Been about a month, let's take another look at the monte carlo projections shall we?

EASTERN CONFERENCE:
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (55-27)
2. Toronto Raptors (49-33)
3. Chicago Bulls (49-33)
4. Indiana Pacers (49-33)
5. Atlanta Hawks (46-36)
6. Boston Celtics (46-36)
7. Miami Heat (46-36)
8. Detroit Pistons (45-37)
-----------------
9. Charlotte Hornets (43-39)
10. Orlando Magic (41-41)
11. New York Knicks (39-43)
12. Washington Wizards (37-45)
13. Milwaukee Bucks (32-50)
14. Brooklyn Nets (27-55)
15. Philadelphia 76ers (15-67)

WESTERN CONFERENCE:
1. Golden State Warriors (67-15)
2. San Antonio Spurs (64-18)
3. Oklahoma City Thunder (55-27)
4. Los Angeles Clippers (49-33)
5. Dallas Mavericks (43-39)
6. Memphis Grizzlies (41-41)
7. Utah Jazz (39-43)
8. Houston Rockets (38-44)
-----------------
9. Sacramento Kings (37-45)
10. Portland Trail Blazers (35-47)
11. New Orleans Pelicans (31-51)
12. Denver Nuggets (31-51)
13. Phoenix Suns (31-51)
14. Minnesota Timberwolves (29-53)
15. Los Angeles Lakers (21-61)

Biggest movers:
Cavaliers: +5 wins
Spurs: +4 wins
Clippers: +4 wins
Jazz: -5 wins
Hornets: -7 wins
Suns: -8 wins
Timberwolves: -8 wins

That jumble of #5-#12 in the East and #5-#10 in the West is interesting.

[NovU]

Well... there you go. East finally catching up to West Dominance is a foolish perception. This is practically a 2 team league with Spurs and Warriors on top. Even distant 3rd is not from East but it's Thunder. Whoever comes out on top from East will earn their honor to get embarrassed in the Finals.

So SAS vs GSW will be likely our real Finals match up this year. Statistically they're close but I hear SAS has been blowing out bad teams while GSW don't care who the fuck they play against, they will beat them up badly. GSW is on pace to be the best team in history. It'd be a travesty if they end up falling short from winning a championship. This is their dynasty.

[benji]

EASTERN CONFERENCE:
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25)
2. Toronto Raptors (54-28)
3. Boston Celtics (49-33)
4. Atlanta Hawks (45-37)
5. Indiana Pacers (45-37)
6. Miami Heat (44-38)
7. Detroit Pistons (43-39)
8. Chicago Bulls (43-39)
-----------------
9. Charlotte Hornets (42-40)
10. Washington Wizards (38-44)
11. Orlando Magic (37-45)
12. New York Knicks (36-46)
13. Milwaukee Bucks (32-50)
14. Brooklyn Nets (24-58)
15. Philadelphia 76ers (16-66)

WESTERN CONFERENCE:
1. Golden State Warriors (70-12)
2. San Antonio Spurs (66-16)
3. Oklahoma City Thunder (57-25)
4. Los Angeles Clippers (52-30)
5. Memphis Grizzlies (44-38)
6. Dallas Mavericks (42-40)
7. Utah Jazz (42-40)
8. Houston Rockets (40-42)
-----------------
9. Portland Trail Blazers (40-42)
10. Sacramento Kings (35-47)
11. Denver Nuggets (34-48)
12. New Orleans Pelicans (33-49)
13. Minnesota Timberwolves (27-55)
14. Phoenix Suns (25-57)
15. Los Angeles Lakers (19-63)

Biggest movers:
Raptors: +5
Blazers: +5
Pacers: -4
Magic: -4
Bulls: -6
Suns: -6

[Andrew]

Interesting that the projections have the Warriors cracking 70, but falling short of 72-10 (or 73-9, for that matter).

[benji]

That's actually an effect of the Pythagorean theorem on the monte carlo, at both ends of the spectrum, it takes greater and greater expansion than actually necessary. Once you go past about 68 wins or losses, it actually takes more points than theoretically needed to achieve the next win. It works properly for everything between those two.

It's a math quirk. But it also oddly accurately reflects just how hard it is to win or lose that many games. So nobody has ever tried all that hard to flush out the problem and find a more accurate exponent than Dean already found.

Just as example, theoretically, to go 76-6 you should only need to amass 1100 (or roughly 13 per game) more points than opponents over the season, but the pythag tails makes it want something closer to 1500 (or around 18 per game) before it'll spit out 76 wins. So it appears less likely than it "should" in trials.

[benji]

Also, I haven't bothered to calculate the margin of error for this point in the season. It might be two or three wins. So the Warriors might "actually" be at 73-9.

[benji]

You guys can stop filling up my PM inbox!

EASTERN CONFERENCE:
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (58-24)
2. Toronto Raptors (54-28)
3. Atlanta Hawks (47-35)
4. Boston Celtics (47-35)
5. Miami Heat (47-35)
6. Charlotte Hornets (46-36)
7. Indiana Pacers (45-37)
8. Detroit Pistons (42-40)
-----------------
9. Chicago Bulls (41-31)
10. Washington Wizards (40-42)
11. Orlando Magic (35-47)
12. Milwaukee Bucks (35-57)
13. New York Knicks (34-48)
14. Brooklyn Nets (23-59)
15. Philadelphia 76ers (12-70)

WESTERN CONFERENCE:
1. Golden State Warriors (72-10)
2. San Antonio Spurs (68-14)
3. Oklahoma City Thunder (55-27)
4. Los Angeles Clippers (52-30)
5. Memphis Grizzlies (44-38)
6. Portland Trail Blazers (42-40)
7. Houston Rockets (41-41)
8. Utah Jazz (40-42)
-----------------
9. Dallas Mavericks (40-42)
11. Denver Nuggets (34-48)
11. Sacramento Kings (33-49)
12. New Orleans Pelicans (32-50)
13. Minnesota Timberwolves (28-54)
14. Phoenix Suns (23-59)
15. Los Angeles Lakers (18-64)

Biggest Movers Since Last Month:
Hornets: +4
Bucks: +3
Sixers: -4

West has been pretty static record wise. Just lots of shifting among those bottom playoff teams. (And middle ones in the East.)

This is the worst projected finish for the Sixers since they were 0-18. People don't seem to be talking about how they've gone 2-20 recently.

[[Q]]

I'm okay with 15 of those teams making the playoffs. I'd like to see Dirk make it again.

Have the Lakers & Sixers clinched top 2 yet?

[Andrew]

Warriors up two to tie the record, I see. It still feels like they're going to beat it.