Anthony, Nuggets look ready to part ways

[Hedonist]

Yes, in every single one of those cases the former were more efficient offensive players than the latter last season.

Here's where you either contend that players who shoot worse, turn it over more, get fewer offensive rebounds and don't get to the line as well help teams more than those who do those things, or you can provide a better way to determine who contributed more offensive production per possession used.

Actually, there's a third choice, where you take a highly disingenuous route. This is actually the most common one.

In any case, this distracts from the original blatantly clear point where even with his far lower usage Lopez matched Kaman in proliferation of points due to his vastly superior efficiency. Something not shocking considering Kaman has been one of the ten most worthless offensive players in the last decade.

Noah was the Bulls best player last season anyway.

Disingenuous..

Merely pointing out the stat in itself is misleading. Afllalo is a defensive player, his O-rating goes through the roof because of who he's playing with.

I contended, if anything, that we were talking about different things. Do I contend that he has worse Ortg and Drtg, yes, definitely. I don't give it the same merit as you guys, and you haven't given me a reason to be convinced of its importance. Imo it means the Clippers are playing like crap when Kaman is on the court, but I'm not blaiming him for it as much as you I suppose. Maybe that's questionable, but I just think the stat is itself complicated (as in, dependant of many things), much less than how many rebounds a guy grabs. so in this case, that raw stat seems more meaningful to me.

Perhaps I'm uneducated on advanced stats, scratch the perhaps btw, but enlighten me.

Especially on offense. They brought Boozer in to anchor the defense. Yes he had the best Drtg on the Jazz so there you go.

[Hedonist]

Well, it also considers how often players get to the line.

Except Lopez gets to the line at a higher rate

I know, but you can see that on their nba.com profile as well, lol, so I know that.

So yeah sure, Lopez is a little bit better, but does that make Kaman worthless and not worth expirings while Lopez is like the next best thing? I mean, the difference isn't that huge.

[benji]

So you don't think there's any value in knowing which players use possessions well and which ones don't?

Imo it means the Clippers are playing like crap when Kaman is on the court

It means nothing of the sort, not even close. It's an individual statistic, that's why Kaman has been consistently bad over his entire career. You don't have six of your seven seasons come in at 100 and under due to your team playing like crap. (The Clippers play like crap while Kaman is on the court because he stinks and is a team killer.)

And that's not bringing up the actual equation.

Maybe that's questionable, but I just don't think the stat is itself complicated (as in, dependant of many things),

I don't know what this is supposed to mean?

so in this case, that raw stat seems more meaningful to me.

What "raw stat"?

Merely pointing out the stat in itself is misleading.

What's misleading about it?

Disingenuous..

Clearly you haven't read this board (or any) enough if you don't think that doesn't constantly happen.

I know, but you can see that on their nba.com profile as well, lol, so I know that.

Yes, but as I said, TS% condenses at least six stats into one.

So yeah sure, Lopez is a little bit better

No, he's MUCH better.

but does that make Kaman worthless

Using 25+% of your teams possessions while putting up an ORtg 9 points below the league average makes you more than worthless it makes you HARMFUL.

I mean, the difference isn't that huge.

Except for the whole part where it is.

To show my work, let's use an example, five man team, the Bulls. Gibson-Deng-Salmons-Rose. Nobody else changes.

Brook Lopez: 52-30.
Chris Kaman: 41-41.

Full rotation?

Code: Select all

Player   MPG   PPG
Brook Lopez   36.4   18.2
rose,derrick   36.4   20.1
deng,luol   36.4   16.5
salmons,john   31.6   11.8
hinrich,kirk   29.1   9.3
gibson,taj   26.7   8.7
warrick,hakim   19.4   8.7
miller,brad   12.1   4.4
johnson,james   12.1   4.0

43-39
PPG: 101.7
OPPG: 101.1

vs.

Code: Select all

Player   MPG   PPG
Chris Kaman   36.4   18.6
rose,derrick   36.4   19.4
deng,luol   36.4   15.9
salmons,john   31.6   11.4
hinrich,kirk   29.1   8.9
gibson,taj   26.7   8.4
warrick,hakim   19.4   8.4
miller,brad   12.1   4.2
johnson,james   12.1   3.9

34-48
PPG: 99.1
OPPG: 101.3

Notice that every single players scoring goes down, but Kaman only adds .4 points himself.

[Hedonist]

So explain what Drtg is made up of then? and O.

I thought, it's the teams output while X is on the court, either defensively, or offensively, per 100 possessions.

(and yeah I know TS% takes all shooting into account but at least they don't take threes right so that narrows it down )

[Hedonist]

To show my work, let's use an example, five man team, the Bulls. Gibson-Deng-Salmons-Rose. Nobody else changes.

Brook Lopez: 52-30.
Chris Kaman: 41-41.

Full rotation?

Code: Select all

Player   MPG   PPG
Brook Lopez   36.4   18.2
rose,derrick   36.4   20.1
deng,luol   36.4   16.5
salmons,john   31.6   11.8
hinrich,kirk   29.1   9.3
gibson,taj   26.7   8.7
warrick,hakim   19.4   8.7
miller,brad   12.1   4.4
johnson,james   12.1   4.0

43-39
PPG: 101.7
OPPG: 101.1

vs.

Code: Select all

Player   MPG   PPG
Chris Kaman   36.4   18.6
rose,derrick   36.4   19.4
deng,luol   36.4   15.9
salmons,john   31.6   11.4
hinrich,kirk   29.1   8.9
gibson,taj   26.7   8.4
warrick,hakim   19.4   8.4
miller,brad   12.1   4.2
johnson,james   12.1   3.9

34-48
PPG: 99.1
OPPG: 101.3

Notice that every single players scoring goes down, but Kaman only adds .4 points himself.

Does this also work in hindsight?

For example, you put the Boston big three's stats from before they joined in a line up like that and how close is it as far as predicting the win record?

[benji]

I have discussed this many times, the rotation projector when supplied with the data of a season will give results within 1-2 wins, which is essentially a rounding error.

For complex seasonal predictions I have decided to move to a three year adjusted average for players to eliminate some noise issues I noticed the last two offseasons, but there's no point in doing that for a small illustration. I also tend to investigate SPM predictions this season but I don't have the system setup for that.

So explain what Drtg is made up of then? and O.

I thought, it's the teams output while X is on the court, either defensively, or offensively, per 100 possessions.

No, that is not it at all.

DRtg is different, as I said it relies heavily on team data because of the nature of the boxscore stats. ORtg is overwhelmingly controlled by an individual. This is why DRtg fluctuates wildly with team performance, while ORtg is consistent over years. (And almost all of its yearly fluctuation can be correlated with shooting fluctuations, a known fluke effect that regularly appears.)

Shadowgrin already quoted the B-R glossary entries for it up above. It is merely points per possession.

[Andrew]

Seems the Nuggets, or at least new VP of basketball operations Masai Ujiri, still feel they can convince Melo to stick around with the extension that's on the table.

[shadowgrin]

In addition to the Melo Matter, Ujiri faces questions surrounding J.R. Smith, who is under police investigation for allegedly choking a player during a pickup game at the team’s practice facility recently.

The hell...

[Andrew]

You know, maybe Paxson was right to trade him immediately after acquiring him in the Chandler to New Orleans deal. He's capable of being a pretty lethal scorer at times but it wouldn't have been worth the baggage. Of course, he was still on his rookie contract and the final year wasn't guaranteed so it wouldn't have been a huge risk unless they signed him to a huge extension. In any case, there's a headache the Nuggets don't need on top of everything else.

[TheMC5]

What did they get for JR again? Was it PJ Brown? If so, that didn't really work out in their favor, I'd say.

[The X]

What did they get for JR again? Was it PJ Brown? If so, that didn't really work out in their favor, I'd say.

I believe it was two 2nd Round picks. A terrible trade then, a terrible trade now

[TheMC5]

Yeah, unless the Bulls pulled a Spurs and grabbed some sneaky Euro prospect with one of those picks a la Ginobili/Scola/Splitter there's no way that could ever have been a good trade (why no one else does this I will never understand). I mean, JR's basically Ben Gordon if Gordon was an insane dunker and a complete dunce on the court, so he may have actually allowed the Bulls to trade BG and get something for him. Although, on second thought, a JR/Skiles combo couldn't have possibly worked in any way whatsoever.

[Andrew]

The Bulls acquired him along PJ Brown from the Hornets. They then traded him to Denver for Howard Eisley (who was subsequently released) and two second round picks in 2007, which became Aaron Gray and JamesOn Curry.

[George7]

The Bulls acquired him along PJ Brown from the Hornets. They then traded him to Denver for Howard Eisley (who was subsequently released) and two second round picks in 2007, which became Aaron Gray and JamesOn Curry.

One thing i would say about that move from Chicago....

[Andrew]

They came out of it alright I guess and at least they don't have to worry about the headaches Smith causes, but they didn't even give him a shot when they could've just cut him loose. Also worth noting that it was slim pickings at the 49th and 51st picks they had in 2007 courtesy of the trade, Ramon Sessions would've been far preferable to Curry though. Gray was decent for the 49th pick.

[air gordon]

Yeah, unless the Bulls pulled a Spurs and grabbed some sneaky Euro prospect with one of those picks a la Ginobili/Scola/Splitter there's no way that could ever have been a good trade (why no one else does this I will never understand). I mean, JR's basically Ben Gordon if Gordon was an insane dunker and a complete dunce on the court, so he may have actually allowed the Bulls to trade BG and get something for him. Although, on second thought, a JR/Skiles combo couldn't have possibly worked in any way whatsoever.

youtube Ben Gordon highlights when he was still in college

[Lamrock]

So I guess they're trying to keep him now. I still don't get why we're making such a big deal about a poor man's Corey Maggette.

[Andrew]

Anthony prefers move to Bulls, Knicks

The Bulls can offer a replacement small forward in Luol Deng, as well as two young forwards in James Johnson and Taj Gibson. New York officials would like to make a run at signing Anthony next summer if he were to opt to become a free agent.

I'd be a little hesitant for them to give up Gibson as well as that cuts into what little depth they have up front. As far as chemistry goes I'd say Deng would probably be happier with the pecking order too. Intriguing though.

[NovU]

I love the idea of Melo in Chi. Could possibly be a step in the right direction to be the serious contender. If the Chi pulls this move, Chi will become widely favored place to play for the players just like other current contenders in East.

[Dan's Brain]

Anthony prefers move to Bulls, Knicks

The Bulls can offer a replacement small forward in Luol Deng, as well as two young forwards in James Johnson and Taj Gibson. New York officials would like to make a run at signing Anthony next summer if he were to opt to become a free agent.

I'd be a little hesitant for them to give up Gibson as well as that cuts into what little depth they have up front. As far as chemistry goes I'd say Deng would probably be happier with the pecking order too. Intriguing though.

Very, very interesting. It would screw the Nuggets up quite royally, with them being locked into Luol Deng for how ever many years. Johnson is a no-brainer. But Gibson, hmmm. I'd be happier to include him in a deal like this rather than the straight-up Rudy Fernandez one. But in terms of how thin it leaves the Bulls in the event of a-not-unlikely Boozer injury, I don't know.

Asik has done pretty well so far in the Worlds (19 points and 13 rebounds per 36). So he's probably ready to contribute against NBA competition, but it's still a risky manoeuvre.

[George7]

It will be great to have Melo to the Bulls and giving Deng,Johnson and a draft pick.But not trade Gibson as he's really valuable for the Bench of this team.

[Martti.]

I'm with the others, Gibson should stay. There aren't many good back-up PF's anymore on the market, maybe just Amundson. Noah-Boozer-Carmelo-Brewer-Rose and with a second unit of Thomas/Asik-Gibson-Korver-Bogans-Watson, they can certainly enter the title chase.

[Alpha_]

Bulls discussing Joakim Noah in deal for Carmelo Anthony

The Chicago Bulls are interested in trading for the Denver Nuggets' Carmelo Anthony and are discussing internally including Joakim Noah as part of the deal, according to a league source.

According to the source, the Nuggets are hesitant to take back Luol Deng as part of a deal with the Bulls because Denver is leery of taking on long-term contracts with the collective bargaining agreement set to expire on June 30, 2011. Deng is two years into a six-year, $71 million contract.

Noah will make $3.1 million this season in the fourth year of his rookie deal. He would become a restricted free agent next season unless the Bulls extend his contract.

Yahoo! Sports reported Wednesday that an NBA source with knowledge of Anthony's wishes told him Anthony still hopes to convince Nuggets general manager Masai Ujiri to trade him, and he prefers a move to the New York Knicks or Bulls.

The Nuggets offered Anthony a three-year, $65 million extension through 2014, but if he rejects it, the team will have to consider trading the forward who has guided them to seven straight playoff berths.

"I think I'm going to convince him to be a Nugget," Ujiri said on Aug. 31. "No, I don't know, I can't make a judgment on that. Like I said, it's a process and until he tells me that ... we want him back, the city wants him back, ownership wants him back."

Anthony has never come out and said he wanted to be traded, however.

At his basketball camp this summer, Anthony dismissed all the speculation of his impending departure from Denver: "I've been hearing that for five years. I'm a Denver Nugget. I'm here, I'm with the Nuggets. I don't become a free agent until next year, if I decide not to take that extension."

Anthony, 26, has averaged 24.7 points per game in his career, including 28.2 last season.

http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/nba/n ... id=5550421

[jonthefon]

Somehow I don't think that would be a good deal for the Bulls. Noah is what, their best rebounder and defender? Seems like an elite defensive big man. Wouldn't sending him to Denver for Melo cause them to be horrifically undersized and really not have much defense anywhere (well, Brewer maybe and I don't know how well Rose plays D)? Boozer is a sieve and he's no center.

If it's Deng as the centrepiece, this should probably be a good deal for Chicago, but I really like Noah.

[NovU]

Noah or Gibson, they should just get this done if they can.

Gibson is talented and young but likely to end up slightly above average player, and let's not forget the tendancy how those kind of players are getting overpaid when the times come.

Noah? Sure he has a good size and been doing ok, but is he really worth so much to pass on Melo? Come on. Melo's a rare player that can change the franchise's faith. Once you pair him up with Boozer and Rose, plenty of bigs will wanna come to Chi for the whatever the roles they get.

IMO, for the long term, it'll be worth it, whether it be Noah or Gibson it costs.