Lets talk about the Mr. Busts

[benji]

Noel was the blatant #1 pick in 2013, he was the only potential franchise player at the time. He's still younger than everyone in that draft except Giannis and Archie Goodwin.

I love Dieng and Plumlee but they were fucking 24 and 23 as rookies. MCW was 22. Oladipo didn't dominate college.

[benji]

For reference, Chad Ford's BIG BOARD after the NCAA Tournament:
1. Nerlens Noel
2. Marcus Smart
3. Ben McLemore
4. Otto Porter
5. Anthony Bennett
6. Victor Oladipo
7. Trey Burke
8. Shabazz Muhammed
9. Michael Carter-Williams
10. Cody Zeller
11. Gary Harris
12. Alex Len
13. C.J. McCollum
14. Glenn Robinson III
15. Mason Plumlee
16. Kelly Olynyk
17. Jamaal Franklin
18. Dario Saric
19. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
20. Jeff Withey
21. Rudy Gobert
22. Archie Goodwin
23. Isaiah Austin
24. Gorgui Dieng
25. Allen Crabbe

From Chad Ford's first mock draft (April 13th)
1. Nerlens Noel
2. Marcus Smart
3. Ben McLemore
4. Otto Porter
5. Victor Oladipo
6. Trey Burke
7. Shabazz Muhammed
8. Alex Len
9. Anthony Bennett
10. Gary Harris
11. Cody Zeller
12. Mitch McGary
13. Michael Carter-Williams
14. Mason Plumlee
15. Glenn Robinson III
16. Kelly Olynyk
17. C.J. McCollum
18. Dario Saric
19. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
20. Jamaal Franklin
21. Jeff Withey
22. Gorgui Dieng
23. Rudy Gobert
24. Isaiah Austin
25. Allen Crabbe

Chad Ford's last mock draft at 7:15 before the draft:
1. Nerlens Noel
2. Victor Oladipo
3. Otto Porter
4. Ben McLemore
5. Alex Len
6. Trey Burke
7. C.J. McCollum
8. Anthony Bennett
9. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
10. Cody Zeller
11. Steven Adams
12. Kelly Olynyk
13. Michael Carter-Williams
14. Sergey Karasev
15. Giannis Antetokoumpo
16. Shane Larkin
17. Lucas Nogueira
18. Shabazz Muhammed
19. Reggie Bullock
20. Mason Plumlee
21. Isaiah Canaan
22. Dennis Schroeder
23. Gorgui Dieng
24. Jamaal Franklin
25. Tim Hardaway Jr.
26. Allen Crabbe
27. Tony Snell
28. Rudy Gobert
29. Ricky Ledo
30. Erick Green

[Corymach7]

Let's go back to busts now. Here is my 25 biggest busts in NBA History:

25. Darrell Griffith (2nd overall in 1980)
24. Robert Swift (12th overall in 2004)
23. Nikoloz Tskitishvili (5th overall in 2002)
22. T. J. Ford (8th overall in 2003)
21. Ed O'Bannon (9th overall in 1995)
20. Joe Alexander (8th overall in 2008)
19. Luke Jackson (10th overall in 2004)
18. Jimmer Fredette (10th overall in 2011)
17. Mouhammed Sene (10th overall in 2006)
16. Kristaps Porzingis (4th overall in 2015)
15. Marvin Williams (2nd overall in 2005)
14. Shawn Bradley (2nd overall in 1993)
13. Hasheem Thabeet (2nd overall in 2009)
12. Robert Traylor (6th overall in 1998)
11. Michael Beasley (2nd overall in 2008)
10. Anthony Bennett (1st overall in 2013)
9. Adam Morrison (3rd overall in 2006)
8. Chris Washburn (3rd overall in 1986)
7. Jon Konack (5th overall in 1985)
6. Kwame Brown (1st overall in 2001)
5. LaRue Martin (1st overall in 1972)
4. Greg Oden (1st overall in 2007)
3. Michael Olowokandi (1st overall in 1998)
2. Darko Milicic (2nd overall in 2003)
1. Sam Bowie (2nd overall in 1984)

[stereoxide]

Wow! You put TJ Ford in there he had a solid career even though he was injury-riddled throughout his career. Also putting Kristaps, he is having a good year even though his scoring has declined recently.

[Andrew]

Sam Bowie, Jon Koncak, and Shawn Bradley also had reasonably long and respectable careers, compared to most of the players on that list.

Kristaps Porzingis is an absolutely ridiculous inclusion, given that we're not even halfway through his rookie season, and he's actually been one of the best rookies so far this season.

[Chicago1]

Let's go back to busts now. Here is my 25 biggest busts in NBA History:

25. Darrell Griffith (2nd overall in 1980)
24. Robert Swift (12th overall in 2004)
23. Nikoloz Tskitishvili (5th overall in 2002)
22. T. J. Ford (8th overall in 2003)
21. Ed O'Bannon (9th overall in 1995)
20. Joe Alexander (8th overall in 2008)
19. Luke Jackson (10th overall in 2004)
18. Jimmer Fredette (10th overall in 2011)
17. Mouhammed Sene (10th overall in 2006)
16. Kristaps Porzingis (4th overall in 2015)
15. Marvin Williams (2nd overall in 2005)
14. Shawn Bradley (2nd overall in 1993)
13. Hasheem Thabeet (2nd overall in 2009)
12. Robert Traylor (6th overall in 1998)
11. Michael Beasley (2nd overall in 2008)
10. Anthony Bennett (1st overall in 2013)
9. Adam Morrison (3rd overall in 2006)
8. Chris Washburn (3rd overall in 1986)
7. Jon Konack (5th overall in 1985)
6. Kwame Brown (1st overall in 2001)
5. LaRue Martin (1st overall in 1972)
4. Greg Oden (1st overall in 2007)
3. Michael Olowokandi (1st overall in 1998)
2. Darko Milicic (2nd overall in 2003)
1. Sam Bowie (2nd overall in 1984)

Kristaps Porzingod is there ?

[NovU]

Pretty good list otherwise for couple names.

Add Jay Williams to the list though.

[Andrew]

Add him over Porzingas. It's way too early to include anyone from the Class of 2015. With Anthony Bennett, you could arguably wait another year or two with him, but then again, being a number one pick who has been a complete flop thus far, you could also argue he should be higher than tenth. At the very least, it feels like he's on his last chance right now.

I also still feel that there are different categories of busts. Players like Jay Williams and Greg Oden aren't busts in the same way that Nikoloz Tskitishvili and Hasheem Thabeet are busts, for example. Oden and Williams seemed to have the talent to make it at the NBA level and showed a lot of promise, but injuries derailed their careers before they could get going. It's still fair to call them busts, but there's a distinction between them and the busts that clearly weren't cut out for the NBA.

[NovU]

I think Sam Bowie's inclusion semi opens the door to mention guys like Oden and Jay.

Some would argue they aren't busts because of injury but you could also say they are busts because of injury. It works both way.

[Andrew]

I'd consider Oden and Williams to be bigger busts than Bowie, who at least managed to stick around for ten seasons despite his injuries. Like I said though, I believe there are different categories of busts, such as players who were injured but could've made something of themselves if they weren't, and players who were clearly wash outs at the NBA level. Then you've got players who found varying degrees of success in the NBA and may have had lengthy careers, but probably shouldn't have been drafted as high as they were. It's debatable as to whether they all qualify as busts.

For example: Sam Perkins was taken before Charles Barkley and John Stockton in 1984. Stock and Sir Charles had Hall of Fame careers, while Perkins was "only" a very dependable role player. That doesn't automatically make Perkins a bust, though. In retrospect, he wasn't the best selection at number four that year, but he still turned out to be a good player who found a place in the NBA.

[Chicago1]

What do you guys think about Derrick Williams? Can he be considered a bust or someone that haven't found his footing in the NBA?

[Andrew]

I think he was definitely taken too high at second overall, and his shooting/efficiency leaves something to be desired, but I also think there's talent there. I have my doubts that he'll ever live up to being the second pick in the Draft, but he's only 24, so it's still possible that he'll find his niche and become a solid role player somewhere.

[benji]

I don't know if 10th and 12th picks should really be in the discussion. Especially when they're high schoolers or international equivalents. You're usually past the real legit talents and it still is a bit too early to go safe lest one of those projects round out into a star like Amare.

And how are Marvin Williams, Shawn Bradley, Traylor, Beasley, Koncak, Tractor Traylor, hell even Olowokandi and Darko bigger busts than Tskitishvili?!?

As bad as some of those guys were, especially Olowokandi, he was at least a serviceable backup and played decent to good defense. All the rest were rotation players and occasional decent to good starters.

The only reason Nikoloz doesn't hold mindblowingly bad statistical records like Kandi is because he only ever logged 1946 minutes in his NBA career.

Robert Swift logged 1500 minutes. He averaged 10pts 9rebs 2blks per 36, had a PER of 11.4, ORtg of 104, career WS and VORP of 1.7 and -0.8.
Tskitishvili averaged 9pts 6rebs 2asts per 36, had a PER of 5.2, ORtg of 79, career WS and VORP of -1.6 and -2.1.

Sam Bowie logged 14,000 career minutes. Averaged 14/10/3 with 2.3blks per 36. With a PER/ORtg/WS/VORP of 14.6, 105, 26.9 and 7.2.
His rookie season he got 2216 minutes, posted 12/11/4 with 3.3blks. And 15.7/110/5.7/3.1. He also racked up 259 playoff minutes in 9 games. And that's one season.

I'm not saying Tskitishvili should be the #1 bust, being pick #5 hurts him, but he was incredibly terrible and went before Nene, Amare, Tayshaun Prince, Carlos Boozer, Caron Butler, Luis Scola, Chris Wilcox, Dan Gadzuric, Nenad Krstic, John Salmons, Matt Barnes, and Darius Songalia. All of whom have been starters for multiple years, starter-quality, or key rotation players on decent-to-good teams for at least four or five years.

[benji]

Here's a bust question.

Fran Vasquez. Discuss.

Also, how are Yi and Araujo not on that list. Or Jonathan Bender, who may have cost the Pacers a title. And Sene but not the guy taken a pick before him? How about the entire 1986 Draft Lottery almost? Or 1989? Dennis Hopson?

Yi fascinates me, it's like he doesn't even exist anymore, nobody even talks about him when he was the biggest player in the world for like a year. He led the Olympics in rebounding and was second in blocked shots in 2012 and it's like nobody noticed because China got their teeth kicked in.

[NovU]

Yi gets a free pass because he's Chinese, unless you're a racist.

[Kenny]

It surprises me that Bowie often outranks LaRue Martin. I'd actually put Martin on top of the list... at least while Anthony Bennett still has a career of some sort.

[benji]

Martin was drafted in a completely different era though. Go look at those drafts, they make almost no sense in retrospect. Bench guys on garbage college teams are getting drafted like 10th. Especially during the ABA days. There were 18 fucking rounds.

It's not really until the 1980's and into the Lottery Era that scouting for the draft became a major thing. The league didn't allow underclassmen to enter the draft before 1971 and not without proof of financial hardship until 1976.

Magic and Bird changed the Draft too. (Remember, the Celtics drafted Bird a year early and risked the chance of losing him.)

[mp3]

Frans is no more a bust than Freddy Weis was except from what I hear he asked to come back over (Weis) to training camp but the knicks said they wanted him to stay where he was.

Fran just let his GF talk him out of going to Orlando

[Andrew]

Fran just let his GF talk him out of going to Orlando

And then there's the aforementioned Yi Jianlian, whose agent and other handlers desperately tried to discourage the Bucks from drafting, at one point citing concerns that he might not be able to find a "suitable girlfriend" in Milwaukee.

[Corymach7]

It surprises me that Bowie often outranks LaRue Martin. I'd actually put Martin on top of the list... at least while Anthony Bennett still has a career of some sort.

It is because Bowie was selected before MJ (The Greatest of all time) and got injured a lot.

[NovU]

I want to say this piece as it has to go on record. Every draft pick by Vancouver was a bust. How do you screw up that bad, blame the city and fans, then leaves them is just beyond me.

[Andrew]

It surprises me that Bowie often outranks LaRue Martin. I'd actually put Martin on top of the list... at least while Anthony Bennett still has a career of some sort.

It is because Bowie was selected before MJ (The Greatest of all time) and got injured a lot.

It's a pick that no one (or at least, very few) would make today, but simply being taken before a player that was better doesn't make someone a bust. Despite his injuries, Bowie still stuck around for ten seasons and wasn't a complete flop.

[formx]

I want to say this piece as it has to go on record. Every draft pick by Vancouver was a bust. How do you screw up that bad, blame the city and fans, then leaves them is just beyond me.

ehh... Abdur-Rahim and Bibby had good careers. Far from busts I must say. That Steve Francis bloke was pretty good too.

[Kevin]

Corymach7, your "bust" scored 16 in 1 quarter. not bad for a lanky 7'1 guy, right?

[Stress Fracture]

Corymach7, your "bust" scored 16 in 1 quarter. not bad for a lanky 7'1 guy, right?

What's Porzingod's 2k rating?