Losers Guide to Winning

[NovU]

Sarcasm?

[shadowgrin]

Riiiiiight.


Even if such statements were sarcasm my replies still tie to and back up my main point of contention on why would anyone be stupid enough to consider McDaniels an "undervalued asset".

All you have is "time will tell."

[NovU]

why would anyone be stupid enough to consider McDaniels an "undervalued asset".

Finally! That's the response you should have gone with in the first place rather than saying "practice stats" crap. (btw I stated "underselling" not "undervalued") Our discussion would have taken a different route then.


This is so obvious that I didn't even point out but since you make me do it... You used his current stats as his value. Obviously he's not that good statically. But values for rookies lies in their potential(which he clearly has) and youth(21yo), to become most likely a rotation guy and more. (btw Wiggins is also shit statistically right now(12.9 PER), lol)

So between Canaan+2ndRoundPick and KJ, which would you take(for a rebuilding team)?

Canaan is an undersized PG with average potential in PG riiiiiiich league. Note that KJ is a 2 years younger rookie. Rebuilding teams should take KJ. I don't think this is a brainer unless you are riding Canaan's cock hard.

2nd round pick? It's likely worthless. 2nd round rarely turns out to be anything. Turn it into $$$ again maybe.

[Mandich]

Benji already managed to explain everuthing while remaining unbias and easy to read.

You ladies can stop spamming now.

Btw Canaans tool isnt even that hard.

[shadowgrin]

This is so obvious that I didn't even point out but since you make me do it... You used his current stats as his value. Obviously he's not that good statically. But values for rookies lies in their potential(which he clearly has) and youth(21yo), to become most likely a rotation guy and more.

So between Canaan+2ndRoundPick and KJ, which would you take(for a rebuilding team)?

Canaan is an undersized PG with average potential in PG riiiiiiich league. Note that KJ is a 2 years younger rookie. Rebuilding teams should take KJ. I don't think this is a brainer unless you are riding Canaan's cock hard.

It's not about Canaan, who gives a shit about Canaan anyway?

Assuming the Sixers are pinning their hopes on Embiid-Noel as their franchise players, both still 2-3 years from potentially tearing the league a new one.
With that in mind why would I want to limit and lock my finances in rebuilding around those two by giving a significant amount of salary to a rotation player?

You don't concern yourself with the rotation guys first then franchise players second, it's the other way around. Easier to acquire rotation players once you have your franchise players set and ready.
If you seriously believe that McDaniels is a franchise type of player then maybe your opinion holds weight that the Sixers letting him go is indeed a big mistake...but he shows no sign of being a franchise player in any way.

Potential alone is an uncertainty, it pans out or not. Considering the Sixers are into analytics, it's a bad idea to overly rely on uncertainties in analytics, not just in basketball. Sixers probably determined that giving him the amount of money that he wants is not worth the risk if he doesn't meet his 'potential'.
It's a better move to let go of the player than overpaying him (like the Rockets did with Parsons as an example, similar thing Sixers are doing and even applying it at lower salary range), even better if you get something in return.

It's not like SGs like him are scarce in the league either, even PGs want to play like SGs now, so if he turns out to be a rotation player it's no big deal and he can be replaced easily.

2nd round pick? It's likely worthless. 2nd round rarely turns out to be anything. Turn it into $$$ again maybe.

With the new CBA it's not.
Non-guaranteed contracts? Draft and stash of bargain foreign prospects? Yes please.



As for MCW, I'm still unsure myself on why the Sixers easily let him go.
Only assumptions I can come up with is that the Sixers know something about him potentially being injury prone...
Looking at his stats, he became worse in every category excluding assists and rebounds...
It could also be his PG game is not the type the Sixers are looking for to perfectly complement Embid and Noel.

[NovU]

Statistically 2nd round picks don't pan out too well. You have better chance against Casino. Canaan has to be something or 76ers entirely lost on this trade.

3 million per season for KJ wouldn't hurt the 76ers financially. They're way under the cap and KJ's new contract is never going to be an obstacle to stay under the cap (just isn't realistic scenario that they'll have max players to sign suddenly). Rather the trade seemingly was a money-saving move approved by owners. Hinkie allegedly has green light to do so, which is envied by many other GMs for being able to do anything and not risk getting fired. Some fans aren't too happy about this.



I also found MCW move bit puzzling. Left me with a feeling that they undersold him and gave up on him little too early(likewise KJ). That also somewhat confirmed trade rumor prior to the season start imo. They likely had a plan to ship out MCW in place all along whether or not he plays good/bad.



I don't claim to be an expert in what Hinkie has been doing but it's looking ugly in my eyes. Not just me, but the league and general public perception on this franchise is hitting rock bottom as of right now. Perhaps Hinkie's doing what benji said in his post, following Morry's Rockets footsteps. Who knows ffs. I actually want to hear spree's take on this entire madness.

[shadowgrin]

3 million per season for KJ wouldn't hurt the 76ers financially. They're way under the cap and KJ's new contract is never going to be an obstacle to stay under the cap (just isn't realistic scenario that they'll have max players to sign suddenly). Rather the trade seemingly was a money-saving move approved by owners.

True but that $3m can be used to pay another Chandler Parsons (Rockets) or another Robert Covington for 3 years if they find decent players like those in the draft again with the ass load of picks they own, rather than lock up $9m to a single player for 3 years.

I don't claim to be an expert in what Hinkie has been doing but it's looking ugly in my eyes. Not just me, but the league and general public perception on this franchise is hitting rock bottom as of right now. Perhaps Hinkie's doing what benji said in his post, following Morry's Rockets footsteps. Who knows ffs.

According to that article Hinkie was able to convince commissioner Silver of what the Sixers are doing and the proposal to change the draft lottery failed in the formal voting of the league board; safe to say that more than half of the league are interested in seeing Hinkie's experiment with the Sixers so it won't be going away or stopping anytime soon.


The real 'winner' in this is fucking Morey, if Hinkie succeeds then Hinkie just confirmed (and tested! Science!) Morey's ideas to be very applicable and that it works. If Hinkie fails, gets fired and no team will hire him, then Morey can hire him again and they can exchange notes on what went wrong and improve Morey's ideas, assuming that Morey is still the GM of a team.

[Stress Fracture]

Pretty sure Morey won't be replaced anytime soon. Unless he resigns.

While we're at it, Hinkie should start searching for 3pt specialists. Covington won't be enough.

[shadowgrin]

While we're at it, Hinkie should start searching for 3pt specialists. Covington won't be enough.

These Sixers are conspicuously long-limbed -- 10 of the 14 athletes boast a wingspan at least six inches longer than their height. Second: With the remarkable exception of forward Robert Covington -- an undrafted, sweet-shooting 24-year-old with a 7-2 wingspan -- approximately none of them can, you know, shoot.

This is no accident. It remains scientifically impossible to develop arm length, an underrated characteristic on defense. ("Sam is very studied in regards to that," Brown says.) But as Spurs wing Kawhi Leonard has verified, it is possible to grow a prospect's shooting ability over time.

3s...that trait can also be purchased and supplemented...

If you really can't wait for Hinkie's master plan...decided to look at Canaan's stats...

Career:
1.1 3PM
3.1 3PA
.365 3P%

Hmmm, I may have to start giving a shit about Canaan.

[air gordon]

Danny green for mcdaniels?

Riddle me this-
In this discussion, one concluded draft picks are overvalued. When actual draft pick is made, player gains value based on his potential and youth.

Please discuss this paradox

[NovU]

Danny green for mcdaniels?

Might not be Green but he turned into a Reggie Jackson. I feel I robbed someone and you played your part in that deal by initially hyping him up.

Riddle me this-
In this discussion, one concluded draft picks are overvalued. When actual draft pick is made, player gains value based on his potential and youth.

Please discuss this paradox

There is no paradox. It's just a boring reality. Teams pay a lot for draft picks because its perceived value is quite high in today's league. But once the picks turn into players, value drops significantly most of times because 'picked' players don't usually pan out to be the players of initial expectations. Obviously KJ doesn't belong to this majority group.

[air gordon]

i cant take any credit for getting Jackson traded to a better situation

[benji]

I don't claim to be an expert in what Hinkie has been doing but it's looking ugly in my eyes. Not just me, but the league and general public perception on this franchise is hitting rock bottom as of right now. Perhaps Hinkie's doing what benji said in his post, following Morry's Rockets footsteps. Who knows ffs. I actually want to hear spree's take on this entire madness.

It's the same process, churn assets, stay flexible. The Rockets had half the Suns team from last year on their roster on one point. Plus Lin and Asik. They brought Ariza back. They flipped Lowry, Courtney Lee, Patrick Patterson, Cole Aldrich, Toney Douglas, Chase Budinger all for picks basically. Some of those picks then landed Harden.

Statistically 2nd round picks don't pan out too well.
...
3 million per season for KJ wouldn't hurt the 76ers financially.

Yet you want me to pay one $3+ million a year when I can probably get equal or better for cheaper? One that might be able to actually shoot.

[NovU]

You want a proven shooter for a rebuilding team? lel



Morrey is coasting on the Harden trade. He's signed Lin to a fat contract, nearly max paid Bosh, made a move on Melo. Barkely's comment on stats being dumb was directed toward him because he was pretending to be a stat guy btw.

[benji]

I think you need to gain an understanding that there is this thing called time, and how it extends past the present moment.

With Embiid and Noel in the middle, yes, I'm definitely going to want three point shooters instead of a 1-and-D tenth man.

Morrey is coasting on a Harden trade.

Dude invented the poison pill. He committed like nobody else ever has to the "acquire talent, figure it out later" model that even non-stats people have long said is the smarter way to build.

[NovU]

I don't know.

This Morey I know only goes after big names. And caught Harden the gold in the process which is keeping his reputation floating above everyone else's. It is hard to see where analytics comes in and how the 76ers are after his style of management.

[benji]

This Morey I know only goes after big names.

This is true, if you ignore every other transaction the Rockets have made under his tenure since Yao effectively retired where he constantly shuffled in and out undervalued assets to accumulate the kind of war chest and flexibility that allows him to overpay reserves Lin and Asik, trade BIG NAMES he went after like Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb and Cole Aldrich for James Harden and still have the cap flexibility to sign Dwight Howard.

[Spree#8]

As for KJ, I think it was a case of "get the first button right" which apparently gone wrong. Instead they got stuck in a situation where they were supposed to sign him for 3-4mil season in the upcoming offseason(which isn't too bad btw but they traded for Canaan & 2nd round). His stats aren't looking good at the moment but he's a defense priority guy anyway, with decent potential on offense. And... he's a rookie ffs.

I think you're overvaluing McDaniels.

I'm not really upset about him being gone. He started out hot, sure. But the longer the season went on, the more I struggled to see anything other than athleticism in him. The dunks and chasedown blocks are nice, but after November he's shot the ball horribly, he has no handle at all and spends too much of his time on the defensive end lurking for weakside blocks instead of guarding his man properly. He has some upside, but the Sixers have Covington, Grant, Thompson, Sampson and now the revived corpse of J-Rich playing SG/SF. The first 3 names on that list are probably all better players already, but Thompson and arguably Covington have lower ceilings. Grant and Sampson are also freakishly athletic, have been progressing rapidly during the season (unlike K.J.) and appear to have more actual basketball skills than McDaniels. I don't think they'll terribly miss him.

Like I said in the other thread, I'm assuming Hinkie believes K.J. is getting the kind of cash that he wouldn't feel comfortable matching in the summer, so he shipped K.J. for whatever he could get. It's not a whole lot, but Hinkie was supposedly high on Canaan in the 2013 draft and considered this the golden opportunity to get him.

We'll see what Canaan can do when given a legit chance to show what he's got, like the one McDaniels got. From the 3 games he's played so far, looks like he's a 3-point bomber and there's not much else to say about him. He is, however, the first competent shooter at PG Philly has had since Jrue got traded.

It's looking like - no matter what happens with Canaan and the second rounder in Philly - McDaniels himself is the biggest loser of this trade. He will have a hard time cracking the rotation in Houston and it's bound to tank his value come July. Conspiracy theorists are saying that it's all Hinkie's plan to sign him cheaply in the summer, but Canaan and a 2nd round pick are also some kind of assets and I don't believe Morey would have coughed them up if he wasn't at least somewhat committed to matching offers K.J. gets in the offseason.

The MCW trade is the one that puzzles me. The Lakers suck hard enough that Hinkie won't get that pick this year. Next year they'll have a returning Randle, a new top5 rookie and a lot of cap space to sign FAs. Even if they don't make the playoffs in the brutal West, the pick might be in the teens, where the likelihood of getting someone better than Carter-Williams seems slim.

I don't really know their reasoning. Maybe they don't like his fit with Embiid. Maybe the shoulder thing is more serious than we think. Anyway, this makes the rumors that Hinkie was "aggressively shopping MCW" on draft night that much more believable. It makes you wonder how Hinkie is always preaching patience and stating over and over that this is a process, yet appears to have given up on his ROTY point guard after a year.

Whatever the case, I hope the reason for trading MCW is a darn good one, because trading away a young potential All-Star is not something the Sixers should be doing unless the return is just overwhelming - and in my opinion, the return they got isn't, mainly because of the uncertainty surrounding it.

Most of what Hinkie does makes a lot of sense, so I won't be quick to bash him for the move. But then again, some of the Hinkie worshippers around the Internet are probably taking it a bit too far. Even if most of his moves are objectively good ones, he hasn't yet accomplished anything. Tearing the roster down and trading every player with any value whatsoever to anyone who's willing to offer a draft pick in return is the easy part. At some point, you need to build a team of all those picks and assets you're accumulating. Trading Hawes and Turner for 2nd round picks is one thing, but when he starts trading his own hand-picked prospects for more picks, one just has to wonder how much longer he'll be kicking the can down the road. The patience of fans (and owners) is not infinite.