Teams That Improved

[NovU]

So the Heat, Knicks, and Bulls I think are out of question on this topic as we all can agree on their vast improvement.

What other teams have improved or will show improvement next season? Here are my picks.

- Houston : With comeback of Yao, I think they're to be a better team next season.
- Portland : Same case. Oden should be back and teams like PHX/DEN/UTH should be weakened with their star players moved to other teams. I can foresee them moving up one or two seed up from where they were this season.
- New Jersey : They allegedly underachieved last season. I will be really surprised if they stay at the bottom of the ladder again.
- Memphis : With Mayo, Gay, and Gasol entering their prime, I think it's possible for them to pull OKC type of turn around next season.

Any thoughts on other teams?

[shadowgrin]

- Memphis : With Mayo, Gay, and Gasol entering their prime, I think it's possible for them to pull OKC type of turn around next season.

No. Until they get a good point who's name is not Mike Conley, they're going nowhere. Unless Conley vastly improves or Memphis moves to the Eastern Conference

[benji]

You think Memphis is going to win 65+ games this season?

[NovU]

No, but I think squeezing in for a lower playoff seed might be a realistical goal if the core improved since they are supposed in prime, age wise.

[benji]

So you don't think they'll "pull [an] OKC type of turn around next season"? OKC improved by 27 WINS last season.

Anyway, you realize right that Conley has been in the league for three years, Gay for four, and Mayo for two, and none of them have even been AVERAGE let alone good enough to anchor a 50 win team nor shown major improvement let alone ANY of significance. OKC got the benefit of Durant turning into a superstar who on MEM is going to be that good? They basically played six players last year, are they going to get away with that again?

Memphis's problem doesn't even have to do with themselves. It's that Houston will be better, the Hornets will be even if Paul wants out simply because he'll be on the court until he's traded, Phoenix won't drop enough and the Kings have no reason not to move up.

[Lamrock]

Whose contract do you think is worse Ben, Joe Johnson's or Rudy Gay's? Gay's younger, and making less, but at least JJ is useful for what the Hawks are trying to do.

[NovU]

OKC improved by 27 WINS last season.

Yeah, that wasn't the best comparison, but meant it more on a note that they could be somewhat surprising.

I understand where you guys are coming from. Perhaps, the core being in prime won't matter much. We'll see.

[Hedonist]

So you don't think they'll "pull [an] OKC type of turn around next season"? OKC improved by 27 WINS last season.

Anyway, you realize right that Conley has been in the league for three years, Gay for four, and Mayo for two, and none of them have even been AVERAGE let alone good enough to anchor a 50 win team nor shown major improvement let alone ANY of significance. OKC got the benefit of Durant turning into a superstar who on MEM is going to be that good? They basically played six players last year, are they going to get away with that again?

Memphis's problem doesn't even have to do with themselves. It's that Houston will be better, the Hornets will be even if Paul wants out simply because he'll be on the court until he's traded, Phoenix won't drop enough and the Kings have no reason not to move up.

Hard to agree with anything you said.

Gay and Mayo have not been AVERAGE? interesting.

Anyway, depth goes a long way. The Grizzlies had a pretty good starting five but their bench was awful. I don't know if they improved it enough to get over the hump, West is tough as nails, but there lies the key for them to turn it around imo.
Durant couldn't have done it without improved depth either (Maynor, Harden, Ibaka).

[Lamrock]

Turns out it matters how many shots it takes to get points. I think Rudy Gay's pretty mediocre though. Good thing they have one of the best frontcourts in the league and their starting five didn't miss that many games last year.

I like the Grizzlies. They're fun to watch. They just aren't that good.

[Murat]

Rockets can enter to Playoffs spot, but not same for Grizzlies. Hornets will be bolstered with Paul's return. Suns could make a Playoffs appearance again with Turkoglu (despite losing Amare). But I believe Frye will get some responsibility, so same for Phoenix.

About New Jersey, if Favors will help them they can win at least 25-30 games.

[hova-]

I think the 76ers can definitely make a step. It is said that Elton Brand has dropped some pounds and I think they should finally be able to integrate him into a solid halfcourt offense. Evan Turner is a player who could make the difference, although you never know about rookies.

Other than that I expect the Nets to win 10-15 more games than last season, the Clippers to win about 10 more games and the Hornets to play better with a healthy Paul.

[Martti.]

Milwaukee could be considered too. Sure, they gave Gooden a big contract, but they got Maggette, Boykins, Dooling, Gooden and CDR for Bell and Gadzuric. With Bogut healthy and hopefully Redd too, they can maybe even get 50 wins.

Also, agree with hova, Philly has a nice young core and if they play well together and Brand is healthy and can maybe get 15 ppg, they can squeak in the Playoffs.

[shadowgrin]

Philly last season had no defense. Eddie Jordan was more concerned about the team running the Princeton offense effectively, he basically had the players wing it playing defense during games. It's probably the first time I heard players complain that they wanted to concentrate on defense and forget the offense.

[Lamrock]

Yeah, the Sixers could improve back to .500 with a competent coach.

[George7]

Gay, Mayo and Gasol would find easily place in any team from the big ones with the two first being starters as well. Gay is athletic as hell and could have been better than Durant as he was basically the same cut, but he wasn't helped by a veteran. He would be for sure a starter in the bulls for me

The same goes for Mayo.

Memphis gets every year fantastic prospects and if the three mentioned take leader role this team would be great next year

[benji]

Gay, Mayo and Gasol would find easily place in any team from the big ones with the two first being starters as well.

No. All of them would be reserves on almost every contender. Gasol is the only worthwhile one of the three you listed and he'd only start on Miami.

Gay is athletic as hell and could have been better than Durant as he was basically the same cut, but he wasn't helped by a veteran.

If Gay had Michael Jordan's talent he'd be the best player in the league!

Aren't counterfactuals fun!

Memphis gets every year fantastic prospects and if the three mentioned take leader role this team would be great next year

The only place they're going to lead Memphis is to the lottery.

Whose contract do you think is worse Ben, Joe Johnson's or Rudy Gay's? Gay's younger, and making less, but at least JJ is useful for what the Hawks are trying to do.

Johnson. Easily.

Gay and Mayo have not been AVERAGE? interesting.

What do they do that overall puts them in the top 15 at their position? Top 25? Top 35 (for Mayo)?

The Grizzlies had a pretty good starting five but their bench was awful.

Their starting backcourt was as bad as the bench.

West is tough as nails

?

[Hedonist]

Gay, Mayo and Gasol would find easily place in any team from the big ones with the two first being starters as well.

No. All of them would be reserves on almost every contender. Gasol is the only worthwhile one of the three you listed and he'd only start on Miami.

LMAO

Couldn't be more wrong. Granted, if in your opinion only Miami and L.A. qualify as contenders it might hold some truth... you certainly seem to have a narrow definition of it.

But, Marc Gasol would probably even win the starting center job on the Lakers after Bynum misses some games and they don't skip a beat. Same for the Celtics, with the Perkins situation. Gasol is just much better on offense.

Gasol would also start on the Mavericks, the Suns, the Hawks (home court teams in 2010), the Thunder, and probably the Spurs and the Blazers, all 50+ win teams.

The only team he doesn't really have a chance is Orlando but that's it. Maybe Chicago.

Gay would start on Orlando though, San Antonio, probably Dallas, and Miami (LeBron at point), and definitely also Atlanta.

Some are stronger solidified as contenders than others, but these teams all have a chance to go to the Conference Finals at least.

For Mayo it's tougher but he would still start on teams as the Bulls and Spurs (with the Manu off the bench-gimmick).

Gay and Mayo have not been AVERAGE? interesting.

What do they do that overall puts them in the top 15 at their position? Top 25? Top 35 (for Mayo)?

Really the burden of proof is with you but let me ask you what would put Gay in bottom 15?
He's 10th in scoring, 6th in steals, 26th in blocks, 33rd in rebounds among all forwards (so including PF's).
Even 26th in assists even though he should improve that. Hardly bottom 15 for SF's in any category.

The Grizzlies had a pretty good starting five but their bench was awful.

Their starting backcourt was as bad as the bench.

Yeah the pg sucked.. Mayo although I'm not necessarily a fan of his, is decent enough to get by imo.

West is tough as nails

?

Really? 50 wins for the 8th seed is not tough? This puzzles you? lol

Not to mention Yao returning to a .500+ team and probably a much improved Sacramento.

[benji]

For some reason I thought you were talking about a player named West. If you read the entire thread you'll see I already said the biggest factor against Memphis is the rest of the West.

Couldn't be more wrong. Granted, if in your opinion only Miami and L.A. qualify as contenders it might hold some truth... you certainly seem to have a narrow definition of it.

But, Marc Gasol would probably even win the starting center job on the Lakers after Bynum misses some games and they don't skip a beat. Same for the Celtics, with the Perkins situation. Gasol is just much better on offense.

Gasol would also start on the Mavericks, the Suns, the Hawks (home court teams in 2010), the Thunder, and probably the Spurs and the Blazers, all 50+ win teams.

There are five contenders.

Miami: Gasol would start, Mayo and Gay would not.
Lakers: Gasol would start only if Bynum was not there and that's not a guarantee, Mayo and Gay would not.
Blazers: Gasol would start only if Oden was not there and that's not a guarantee, Mayo and Gay would not.
Magic: None of them would start.
Celtics: Gasol MIGHT start, but the O'Neals probably have an in due to being veterans, Mayo and Gay would not.

Not a contender but an outside possibility:
Mavericks: Gasol would not start, but come off the bench behind Haywood and Dirk. Mayo would not start, I doubt Gay would.

Really the burden of proof is with you but let me ask you what would put Gay in bottom 15?
He's 10th in scoring, 6th in steals, 26th in blocks, 33rd in rebounds among all forwards (so including PF's).
Even 26th in assists even though he should improve that. Hardly bottom 15 for SF's in any category.

Since you used only forwards, I shall also (2000+ minutes):

TS%: 42nd.
Steal%: 14th.
Block%: 34th.
Rebound%: 50th.
Assist%: 44th.
ORtg: 37th.
PER: 29th.
WS/48: 43rd.

So he's a competent thief, but not top 10 at his position. His offensive production as a whole is decidedly average at best for a starting small forward, so are his individual components like rebounding, assisting and shooting. There's nothing to suggest he's a stopper as past year defensive stats all indicate he's likely below-average to average on that end.

Considering his non-existent development, he's probably never going to be better than the fifth best player on a contender. Maybe fourth if that team peaks high. He's competent and doesn't have any glaring flaws, but he also doesn't bring anything great to the table.

He's Memphis' best perimeter player, but we shouldn't delude ourselves into thinking that just because they don't have anything better and he plays a ton of minutes he's something more than he is.

[Hedonist]

There are five contenders.

What are you basing this wisdom on? By any standards the choice for the Blazers is odd, not supported by results from the past.

Miami: Gasol would start, Mayo and Gay would not.
Lakers: Gasol would start only if Bynum was not there and that's not a guarantee, Mayo and Gay would not.
Blazers: Gasol would start only if Oden was not there and that's not a guarantee, Mayo and Gay would not.
Magic: None of them would start.
Celtics: Gasol MIGHT start, but the O'Neals probably have an in due to being veterans, Mayo and Gay would not.

Not a contender but an outside possibility:
Mavericks: Gasol would not start, but come off the bench behind Haywood and Dirk. Mayo would not start, I doubt Gay would.

Miami: assuming LBJ doesn't play point sure, but I am assuming that personally. I think Mike Miller is going to start at the 3 as it is.
LAL & POR: the odds are stacked up against Bynum and particularly Oden to not play 82 minutes healthy. Even if healthy Oden struggles with foul trouble.
Magic: Peaches traditionally comes off the bench. so does Redick. as it is, Pietrus is probably starting. Gay would start over him.
Mavericks: Haywood gets the vet-nod too? Gasol is better. Gay/Marion is definitely debatable.

Since you used only forwards, I shall also (2000+ minutes):

TS%: 42nd.
Steal%: 14th.
Block%: 34th.
Rebound%: 50th.
Assist%: 44th.
ORtg: 37th.
PER: 29th.
WS/48: 43rd.

So he's a competent thief, but not top 10 at his position. His offensive production as a whole is decidedly average at best for a starting small forward, so are his individual components like rebounding, assisting and shooting. There's nothing to suggest he's a stopper as past year defensive stats all indicate he's likely below-average to average on that end.

Considering his non-existent development, he's probably never going to be better than the fifth best player on a contender. Maybe fourth if that team peaks high. He's competent and doesn't have any glaring flaws, but he also doesn't bring anything great to the table.

He's Memphis' best perimeter player, but we shouldn't delude ourselves into thinking that just because they don't have anything better and he plays a ton of minutes he's something more than he is.

I don't think that proves he's below average at his position, which was your initial claim.

Rebound and block % are generally higher for PF's so I'm guessing he's still in the upper half of starting 3's in those categories. As a first/second (?) option I think it's fair to say that fg% is likely to take a hit as opposed to being the 5th option and getting easy looks mostly, which is what true average starters typically get, I think.

The below average defensive stats you're referencing to are?

[benji]

What are you basing this wisdom on?

Which teams are clearly better than others.

By any standards the choice for the Blazers is odd, not supported by results from the past.

The Blazers were without either of their centers for most of last season, Roy was hobbled for a good third of the season, Batum missed half the season, they had discontent that is now gone, AND they won't be playing Juwan Howard 1600 minutes. They still won 50 games a year removed from 55 (despite again losing their best center for half the season). They have stars and they have depth. They're in the Boston-tier of contention yes, but they're easily better than the next tier with the Thunder, Spurs and Jazz.

Mavericks: Haywood gets the vet-nod too? Gasol is better.

No, he is not.

I don't think that proves he's below average at his position, which was your initial claim.

Yes, it does. He is not top 15 as his position. There are 30 starting spots, 15 would be the average, he is below this.

Rebound and block % are generally higher for PF's so I'm guessing he's still in the upper half of starting 3's in those categories.

If we assume half of those 62 are power forwards (not entirely fair as we have plenty of swing-forwards) and it's distributed in an even pattern he wouldn't be top 15 in anything but steals. (He's like 12th or something for SFs since I actually glanced at that earlier.) And he's potentially high enough in blocks that I'll let it in.

You keep saying he's a top player at his position, but haven't pointed to anything outside of steals where he's in the upper tier of his position and why this would overcome all the stuff he's blatantly average at.

As a first/second (?) option I think it's fair to say that fg% is likely to take a hit as opposed to being the 5th option and getting easy looks mostly, which is what true average starters typically get, I think.

So you agree he's an average starter who would be a fifth option.

The below average defensive stats you're referencing to are?

Stops. As a %, per possession, whatever you want really.

[Hedonist]

What are you basing this wisdom on?

Which teams are clearly better than others.

Subjective.

By any standards the choice for the Blazers is odd, not supported by results from the past.

The Blazers were without either of their centers for most of last season, Roy was hobbled for a good third of the season, Batum missed half the season, they had discontent that is now gone, AND they won't be playing Juwan Howard 1600 minutes. They still won 50 games a year removed from 55 (despite again losing their best center for half the season). They have stars and they have depth. They're in the Boston-tier of contention yes, but they're easily better than the next tier with the Thunder, Spurs and Jazz.

Spurs injuries don't count? This is also subjective or at best, conjecture.

Mavericks: Haywood gets the vet-nod too? Gasol is better.

No, he is not.

Debatable at least.

I don't think that proves he's below average at his position, which was your initial claim.

Yes, it does. He is not top 15 as his position. There are 30 starting spots, 15 would be the average, he is below this.

Rebound and block % are generally higher for PF's so I'm guessing he's still in the upper half of starting 3's in those categories.

If we assume half of those 62 are power forwards (not entirely fair as we have plenty of swing-forwards) and it's distributed in an even pattern he wouldn't be top 15 in anything but steals. (He's like 12th or something for SFs since I actually glanced at that earlier.) And he's potentially high enough in blocks that I'll let it in.

You keep saying he's a top player at his position, but haven't pointed to anything outside of steals where he's in the upper tier of his position and why this would overcome all the stuff he's blatantly average at.

As a first/second (?) option I think it's fair to say that fg% is likely to take a hit as opposed to being the 5th option and getting easy looks mostly, which is what true average starters typically get, I think.

So you agree he's an average starter who would be a fifth option.

No point in adressing these individually because it comes down to the same issue.

Yeah, I would agree that he'd be a great 5th option, but I don't think how that's agreeing since you said he's below average.

Give me 15 who are better, I think that's a much better way to approach it.

I'm definitely not saying he's a star and I acknowledge he's overpaid for his current production and that they're banking on athleticism + potential (basicly for Gasol and Mayo too), but I just disagree that he's below average. I think he'd start on more than 15 teams.

The below average defensive stats you're referencing to are?

Stops. As a %, per possession, whatever you want really.[/quote]
What sites do you use anyway to dig up all these things?

[benji]

82games.com

Subjective.

This is also subjective or at best, conjecture.

Please demonstrate your completely objective contenders definitional model.

Debatable at least.

Please do.

Give me 15 who are better, I think that's a much better way to approach it.

You'll have to define the criteria.

[Hedonist]

Subjective.

This is also subjective or at best, conjecture.

Please demonstrate your completely objective contenders definitional model.

There isn't one, obviously (lol), but the Blazers haven't proven anything but winning a couple of 50 win season with 1st round exit. Oden's health is a huge liability. Counting him in for 82 games is like counting on Yao for 82 games which would be arguably good enough to deserve the contender status as well, so in that sense it is subjective imo. They added a nice player in Matthews though but other teams did more I feel.

On the other hand the Suns got to the WCF and very close, they lost Amar'e okay.
Spurs, they have the history but more importantly, they suffered just as many injuries and they added the Spanish MVP so I could see them doing damage. Mavs were 2nd seed and arguably improved too especially with Chandler and they'll have Butler form the get go now.

Debatable at least.

Please do.

I could go into length with stats and what not, advanced, raw, whatever, but just a quick glance and for every stat category that one is better, there's another one that's 'marginally' better for the other guy. So really I don't see how Haywood is clearly better, if that's what you're implying. It's probably a little bit offense-defense with them, Gasol better offensively and Haywood better defensively.

Give me 15 who are better, I think that's a much better way to approach it.

You'll have to define the criteria.[/quote]
Well, we're talking about the complete package right?

Let me give it a shot:

Gay would start on

Bulls
Cavaliers
Hawks
Knicks
Magic
Nets
Pistons
Raptors
Wizards

stretch: Granger to PF, Pacers
LeBron at point guard, Heat

unlikely: together with Iguodala, Sixers

Clippers
Grizzlies (have to count all 30)
Jazz (AK)
Kings
Mavericks (Marion)
Rockets
Spurs
Warriors

maybe: NOH, with Ariza at wings
MIN, they just got Beasley and Wesley Johnson but Gay is probably better

that's 15 with 7 maybe's including Mavs & Jazz with maybes


how many do you disagree with?

And this is from the overal perspective/(mis)conception of who's better, not team strategy because that just makes the discussion even more complicated.

[benji]

That wasn't what I meant for criteria. You wanted me to list 15 better players. Even though I think that's a silly way to determine a players actual value, it's better than what you just did.

I could go into length with stats and what not, advanced, raw, whatever

Sure you could.

So really I don't see how Haywood is clearly better, if that's what you're implying. It's probably a little bit offense-defense with them, Gasol better offensively and Haywood better defensively.

Haywood is the superior fit in the Mavericks system, as Chandler is, because what they do on the court is exactly what their role demands. And they do it well.

but the Blazers haven't proven anything but winning a couple of 50 win season with 1st round exit

Doesn't matter. The Lakers went three years never getting past 45 wins and the first round and now have three straight finals and an average of 60 wins over the last three. A healthy Blazers team has too much depth and too much quality to not be a possible contender. It's been a 60 win contender for the last two years with shitty luck regarding health, especially of their best player.

The Spurs history is irrelevant.

Nobody is saying the second-tier teams don't have an outside chance based on how things break, but they start with far far lower odds than the Big Five. The same Big Five as when we started last season.

[kevC]

There is no way in hell Adelman starts Gay over Battier. Just saying.