(3) Suns Vs. (6) Blazers

[Lamrock]

With the Suns' impending win in Utah (yes!!!), they have clinched the third seed, and will now play the Blazers. Even without Roy, the Blazers are a worse match-up for the Suns. It may be a homer pick, but I think that Portland can make it as far as the WCF thanks to lucky seeding! I love it.

My prediction: Blazers in 6.

[Rip32]

I love your enthusiasm Lamrock, but I don't see the Blazers doing a lot in this one. I know Camby has been doing really well recently and LaMarcus Aldridge is always solid, but in a series where the Suns will be forcing the pace I don't know how well Camby holds up stamina-wise.

The perimeter favors the Suns because of Roy's injury. I'd take Dudley-Richardson-Hill over Batum-Webster-65% Roy in a 7 game series. All that said, if Andre Miller can do a good job on Steve Nash Portland has a shot, but I'll take my chances picking the Suns over an Andre Miller defensive clinic this series.

Surprise player is Jared Bayless, because I like him and hate Goran Dragic.

Suns in five.

[Lamrock]

Don't forget that Robin Lopez, the Suns' emergent starting 5, will be out for the series. This reminds me of 2005 when Seattle played Sacramento. The Kings were a beloved team that was a contender a couple years ago, but on the decline. The Sonics were a young, Nate McMillan coached team. Thanks to Jerome James having the 5 good games of his career, the Sonics won 4-1. Lets hope this ends similarly. (as much as I love Nash)

Fun fact: Blazers beat Suns in Phoenix sans Roy earlier this year. They match up pretty well too:

Batum/Bayless vs. Nash/Dragic
Nicolas Batum is a fantastic young defender, who posts Nash-esque shooting numbers. With Miller more or less playing Roy's Role, this should be the match-up. Batum minimizes Nash's impact, and continues to be a solid 5th option. Bayless and Dragic cancel each other out.
Miller/Fernandez vs. J-Rich/Barbosa
Richardson is inconsistent, making it possible for the 6'2" Miller to contain him. Meanwhile, Miller should resume his role as the smaller, poor man's Brandon Roy, running the offense and being that guy who creates his own shots. Barbosa is injured. Rudy is disgruntled and kind of shitty. Cancels each other out again
Webster/Batum vs. Hill/Dudley
Grant Hill is past his prime. A nice character guy, and decent role player, but a below average starting SF. Webster is atrocious on offense, but should match or beat Hill's production by shooting 3's. When Batum isn't guarding Nash, he's cancelling out Dudley, who is basically a poor man's version of him.
Aldridge/Cunningham vs. Frye/Amundson
Like Aldridge would guard Amar'e. Aldridge takes a dump on the Suns offense, while the former Blazer benchwarmer Frye continues to be a less awesome Matt Bonner. Dante won't play much, if at all, while Amundson is just... Amundson.
Camby/Howard vs. Amar'e/Amundson
Amar'e will be hard to stop, but his lack of defense should make this a fun series for Aldridge (and his fans like bowdown). Camby is one of the best guys to have against someone like Amar'e.

It won't be an easy series, but it is winnable. If Roy, and dare I say, Oden return, we could be seeing Portland in the Western Conference finals giving the Lakers hell... (no point in being pessimistic like most of the downer Blazers fans on the internet)

[bowdown]

Man with Roy 100% i would easily say WCF as well, especially with our stinky bench seeing even lesser time in the playoffs. But im not feeling too well about this right now. Hopefully it will be competitively.

[Lamrock]

Roy hasn't been 100% since mid-January. IMO the team isn't any better with 75% Roy running the show. Most people think it will be a wash for the Suns, but they are a better regular season than playoff team and Portland matches up extremely well. Two televised blowouts against battered playoff teams and suddenly they are contenders.

[benji]

but they are a better regular season than playoff team

Are they?

[JaoSming]

I got the 'nix in 6

from what ESPN as told me, the Suns are on a roll (I actually have no idea how they are playing right now)

[Sauru]

i thinks this one stretches the full 7 but the suns win it in the end

[Andrew]

Suns in six. If not for Roy's untimely injury, I'd pick be tempted to pick the Blazers for the upset or at least push the series to seven but the Suns finished the season really strong, winning seventeen out of twenty one in the last six weeks of the season including ten in a row.

[Martti.]

Suns in 7. Or Blazers in 7 if Roy returns in time.

[DVocShoeBox]

I pick two, Steve Kerr is the GM of which team?

and the raining 2000 Never MVP Steve Blake, why trade such great skill!!!

[Andrew]

Kerr's the President and GM of the Suns.

[Lamrock]

but they are a better regular season than playoff team

Are they?

I expected at least one of my (admittedly biased) points to be thrown back at me. Reason I say this is because of Phoenix's recent bad luck (an intangible, yes) in the playoffs, and their ineptitude on the defensive end. They might be the "best offensive team ever", but Portland is a far superior defensive team. I think we see 20 PPG for both Miller and Aldridge.

Last year's Blazers were the epitome of a regular season team. A group with a very thin playbook and no playoff experience who were dominated by the Rockets. Some call it just a bad match-up, but I think New Orleans was the only winnable matchup for last year's Blazers. Andre Miller doesn't help that much in the regular season (except on the many occasions that Roy is out - God that contract extension is looking regrettable) but he makes the team much harder to beat come playoff time. Sans Roy and Oden, this is a better playoff team than last year.

(imho of course)

[bowdown]

Roy is officially out for the first round playoffs. This sucks a fat penis meat. This takes the pressure off though. I can watch with ease watching batum develop with other youngsters

[Lamrock]

The extension hasn't even kicked in, and its already a bust. I honestly hope he's traded. Injury may be a blessing in disguise though. While Portland lost to some bad teams sans Roy, Roy has been shit recently, and the team has played its best games of the year against LA and OKC without him.

Starting Webster over Roy deprives the team of its main offensive weapon, but makes them far better defensively, and less predictable on offense. I hope Roy recovers from this awful, injury-prone season and goes back to his healthy, productive 2008-09 self, but I wouldn't hold my breath. At least Aldridge is playing well, and Batum is just a beast.

[Andrew]

The extension's a bust because he slumped a bit toward the end of the year and had an unfortunate injury?

[Lamrock]

The extension's a bust because of his disappointing play all year and sustaining an injury that could shorten his career by several years. Sure, I would have given him that extension (and also drafted Oden #1), but the extension is not looking good right now.

[Andrew]

Fair enough, though bust is a pretty strong word to use here; I still think it'll ultimately work out for the Blazers. You want an example of a bad extension, take Luol Deng. If the Blazers did want to backtrack on keeping Roy around, they could still trade him fairly easily. I don't see anyone lining up to take Deng anytime soon.

[Axel The Great]

I think this series will be interesting, if Camby and Aldridge can stop Stoudemire from scoring in the paint, and the rest of the team plays like they did against the Lakers, they have a fair chance of winning. I say Suns in 7.

[Axel The Great]

and the team has played its best games of the year against LA and OKC without him.

Take into account the Blazers lost against the Warriors, whom only had 6 healthy players, but that game probably didn't matter to them anyways.

[benji]

Reason I say this is because of Phoenix's recent bad luck (an intangible, yes) in the playoffs

But this is entirely nonsensical and illogical. Especially since this is a different team, different coach, etc.

They might be the "best offensive team ever", but Portland is a far superior defensive team.

While Phoenix is a vastly superior offensive team that nobody in the league can even sniff. It's not like Portland is shutting people down, they're only average. (At best.)

Last year's Blazers were the epitome of a regular season team. A group with a very thin playbook and no playoff experience who were dominated by the Rockets. Some call it just a bad match-up, but I think New Orleans was the only winnable matchup for last year's Blazers. Andre Miller doesn't help that much in the regular season (except on the many occasions that Roy is out - God that contract extension is looking regrettable) but he makes the team much harder to beat come playoff time. Sans Roy and Oden, this is a better playoff team than last year.

They couldn't hang with the Rockets with Roy playing at a top level, so I don't see where they are going to get the offense without him.

I don't buy the Miller hype, he hasn't been THAT good. And if there's one thing Nash can actually guard above-average it's post-ups. If Aldridge wants to get 20 PPG taking two-point jumpers, big deal. The dangerous 25+ PPG scoring-machine Amare is back so Aldridge can gun for 25 on jumpers if he wants to. The Suns don't even need any interior defense because the Blazers bigs are going the spend the entire series 15 feet or more out even if you didn't guard them.

The Suns are going to basically vaporize them. I don't think Portland could run if they even wanted to, let alone trade baskets with an offense like the Suns. Portland's good where Phoenix is not and vice versa, in such a situation the better team usually wins. Nobody has been able to take the outside shot away from Phoenix because half their guys will drive if you come out, and since the old Amare returned they've been 28-7.

[Lamrock]

I don't buy Hollinger's pick of Phoenix going to the Finals (Or Utah beating LA for that matter - all the time spent coasting throws off the stats, and ignores the face that Utah matches up poorly with LA), but homerism aside, your points are legit and Phoenix will probably win. Having better rebounders and a 2-1 season series victory is the thread of hope I hold on to right now

I'm just excited that my team has done as well as they have considering our (their) two best players are done for the season with knee injuries. Hollinger thinks Phoenix has 65-35 odds of winning. I'll take those 35 and pray that Phoenix's shots don't fall. (If/when the Suns take out Portland, I'll be rooting for them. Nash is my favorite player and I would love to see him win a ring)

Updated my avatar so that I don't appear to be a Nash-hater.

[Vl@d Zola Jr.]

I'm a big Suns (Nashes and Amar'e's especially ))) ) fan, so I would support PHX either way.
Still, as Blazers' key players are injured, i chose the option "Suns in 6". I would have chosen "Suns in 7", if they had been healty. )))

And, Suns were veeery unlucky during some last play-offs. Nash is already not young. He should eventually win the Play-offs! ))

PS: Still, Jared Dudley's hands are athletic and Kerr is a poor GM. ))) Although, I don't know, why this options are here )))
PPS: What's wrong with Oden's penis?

[shadowgrin]

PS: Still, Jared Dudley's hands are athletic and Kerr is a poor GM. ))) Although, I don't know, why this options are here )))

Because we keep it real here in the NLSC.

PPS: What's wrong with Oden's penis?

Please move away from any sharp objects that you can use to poke your eye out...
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[NovU]

I think this series will be somewhat lopsided in the favor of PHX. Portland I don't think has enough weapons on both ends of the floor.