2009-10 Projections

[benji]

Since we're about two weeks out from the season, thought I'd start this off since I did a quick projection. Did what I did last year, split them into categories, based on zero injuries, a rotation based on "most likely" case if no injuries. I only did things with a few rookies if I thought they would play a major role (so Griffin, Curry, etc.) this season. Although on one team I specifically didn't include a rookie in order to keep the team from going 73-9. Again, this is based on performances from last season. Except for a few players. Boozer, Arenas, Baron Davis, etc. were mixed with their prior season (in Arenas' case 2006-07) based on how far their recent season was from their career, considering their age. Boozer got a bigger mix of recent year because he's kinda on the outs with Utah, while say Arenas was mixed more favorably towards his better season.

I can post the win totals that were projected, but I'd want to scale them against the proper amount of games first. (EDIT: Turns out it was only off four games due to the rounding, but if anyone cares, I'll still post them.)

Contenders:
1. CLE
2. ORL
3. BOS
First/Second Round Fodder:
4. ATL
5. CHA
6. MIA
One and Done:
7. MIL
8. CHI
9. TOR
10. IND
11. PHI
12. NJN
Lottery-Bound:
13. WAS
14. NYK
Fantastic:
15. DET

Contenders:
1. LAL
2. POR
3. DEN
4. SAS
5. NOH
Outside Shots:
6. DAL
7. HOU
8. UTA
Depends on Amare:
9. PHO
Everything Has to Go Right:
10. MIN
11. GSW
Lottery-Bound:
12. OKC
13. LAC
MY EYES, THE GOGGLES DO NOTHING:
14. MEM
15. SAC

[Andrew]

I'm surprised to see Chicago as high as they are, I guess I'm entering the season with a healthy dose of pessimism. I'd be interested in seeing the win totals.

[Martti.]

I think Washington could go under the "Everything Has to Go Right" list. If they stay healthy, they can make some noise in the East.

[hova-]

Interesting that the Clippers are once again struggling. I can't believe it but it turned out to be right last year so we just have to wait and see. The Hornets will be very interesting imho with Okafor for Chandler in there.

[Dan's Brain]

Although on one team I specifically didn't include a rookie in order to keep the team from going 73-9.

Hmmmm, I admire your optimism, but I don't think Taj Gibson gets the Bulls to 73 wins.

In all seriousness, which rookie was it?

[J@3]

*cough*austindaye*cough*

[benji]

I think Washington could go under the "Everything Has to Go Right" list. If they stay healthy, they can make some noise in the East.

As noted, everything is without injuries. Haywood assumed to play like 2007-08 and Arenas mostly assumed to play like 2006-07.

In all seriousness, which rookie was it?

Austin Daye.

At least one new post has been made to this topic. You may wish to review your post in light of this.
*cough*austindaye*cough*

Signing off to avoid my rambling.

[J@3]

You can't keep him for yourself

[Dee.]

Charlotte Can't be a second rounder...
Maybe only First rounder,or One And Done.

[FiZzO]

Did you do these projections with Yao in Houston's line-up or they ended up ahead of Utah without him ?

[Lamrock]

Didn't you project the Hornets to regress with the Okafor trade a couple months ago? Aside of the big 3, do the Hornets have any hidden gems? The rest of their team looks horrible.

[benji]

BTW, I was intending for this thread to be the yearly projection thread, not just to post my bullshit.

Did you do these projections with Yao in Houston's line-up or they ended up ahead of Utah without him ?

Without.

Didn't you project the Hornets to regress with the Okafor trade a couple months ago? Aside of the big 3, do the Hornets have any hidden gems? The rest of their team looks horrible.

They did add Diogu and Songalia, and I gave more minutes to Brown and Wright as they're missing Daniels and Butler. That said, a few months ago they did project out to 50 wins, now they're at 52.

[Lamrock]

I'd post mine, but they're almost exactly in line with yours, with the Hawks being the only major exception.

[shadowgrin]

Aside of the big 3, do the Hornets have any hidden gems? The rest of their team looks horrible.

Julian Wright. Watch out!
Hilton Armstrong-s not bad either.

[Lamrock]

Okay, rough predictions I typed up in a half hour - with commentary.

Eastern Conference:
1. Boston - Only the third best team in the East, but the top two both made blockbusters in the offseason.
2. Cleveland - Like the 2006 Miami Heat, they won't record as many wins this year, but will be a better team overall. My title favorites.
3. Orlando - With Ra$hard out the first ten games, and them essentially replacing Hedo with Vince Carter (an upgrade, despite what anybody says, but will take time to adjust), they miss the 60 win mark yet again. They lose to Cleveland in an epic conference semifinal series.
4. Miami - Atlanta's terrible decision to bring in Jamal "Crawful" Crawford coupled with Mike Beasley's development earns them the sacrificial lamb spot against the C's in the conf. semis.
5. Charlotte - Towards the end of the season they showed progress, and had they traded J-Rich at the start, would have made the playoffs. Losing Okafor is actually not that big of a deal.
6. Toronto - I'm banking on intangibles with this pick. Jose Calderon should be better not hampered by a minor injury. Chris Bosh should have a career season in a contract year. Andrea Bargnani showed improvement towards the end of the season and hopefully will be solid this season. Maybe a stretch, maybe a homer, but i see Toronto winning about 45 games.
7. Atlanta - A bit of a shocker last year, losing their best 2008 performer in Josh Childress, and somehow improving ten wins. The acquisition of chucker/team cancer/defensive liability Jamal Crawford puts the Hawks back in the mediocre column.
8. Chicago - They lost their best player in the offseason, but Rose and Noah should continue to improve, with the former perhaps nearing all-star level, and the rest of the team is solid enough to earn a playoff spot in the top-heavy east.
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9. Indiana - The perennial "almost" team. Granger is fantastic, as is Troy Murphy, but they seem built for 35 wins.
10. Philadelphia - Losing perhaps their best player in Andre Miller hurts. Lou Williams, Thaddeus Young and Andre Iguodala are all solid young players, but I think they'll fall short.
11. Washington - All hype. Jamison is declining, Butler has always been a marginal star, and Arenas isn't the most efficient player, even when healthy. The more touches Randy Foye gets, the worse they'll be.
12. New York - They won't be good, but with David Lee and Nate Robinson in contract years, along with Utah owning their first-rounder, I expect the Knicks to at least win 30 games.
13. New Jersey - The VC trade was great for both sides. Devin Harris is a superstar, Brook Lopez is a fantastic up-and-comer and Courtney Lee is looking like a young(er) Kevin Martin. Rest of their roster sucks though.
14. Detroit - In the offseason, they went and overpaid players at positions that were already filled with quality. (Rip Hamilton and the underrated Jason Maxiell) I like both Gordon and Villanueva, but they aren't the answers. 50+ losses for this disaster of a once reputable team.
15. Milwaukee - Losing three of their starters in the offseason, the Bucks look horrible. Brandon Jennings will likely be extremely inefficient, Redd will play 40 games, and this entire season will be garbage time. I like Luc Richard Mbah A Moute though.

Western Conference:
1. Portland - Oden has a breakout all-star season (though he was good last year) and the Blazers eclipse the 60 win mark. They probably can't beat LA in a seven game series, but they will show tremendous progress yet again this year, claiming the top seed.
2. LA Lakers - Growing pains will arise, but when all is said and done, they will likely make it out of the West again just because of their immense talent advantage, excellent coach and title experience.
3. San Antonio - They lead the league in the first half of the year, but their older stars (Duncan, Manu, RJ) break down in the second and Spurs fall to third. Dispatched by the Lakers in round 2.
4. Denver - There always seems to be a team that has a very ambitious season out of nowhere one year, then falls the next. Last year it was New Orleans, the Jazz before them, now its the Nuggets. Last year, everything seemed to go right. This year, they won't be quite as lucky. 50 wins and a 4-2 dispatch at the hands of Portland.
5. Dallas - Prolonging the inevitable. The Harris-for-Kidd trade was a huge mistake and now the team is doomed to be a slowly sinking ship with no real title aspirations. Time for a reboot.
6. New Orleans - Acquiring Okafor helps, but the Hornets may be the shallowest of playoff teams.
7. Utah - Boozergate 2 keeps them out of the top four. They have potential to contend, especially with a superstar (who somehow has never made an all-star game) in D-Will. However, last year's issues arise, and LA smacks them for the third straight year.
8. Minnesota - My dark horse. Sessions is a fringe-all-star PG, Jefferson is a budding superstar, Love is excellent, and the rest of the team isn't any worse than the Hornets' nine worst players. They sneak in and get swept by the Blazers.
----------
9. Houston - Not as bad as you'd think, not quite good enough to make the playoffs. They'll turn some heads but fall short down the stretch, with or without T-Mac
10. Phoenix - They are even worse than last year. Kerr sure did a great job with the team, turning Nash - Bell - Diaw - Marion - Amare into Nash - J-Rich - Hill - Amare - Lopez. Lottery.
11. OKC - Pains me to say it, but the Thunder don't look too bad now. Durantula should improve, Westbrook chill out and Harden seems promising. 35 wins and a gold star for the Thunder.
12. Golden State - A fiasco. I would have put them at 8, until Monta Ellis and Stephen Jackson both demanded trades. Expect more of the same as last year, despite Anthony Randolph having a godly season.
13. LA Clippers - Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon show immense promise, but Baron and Al Thornton cancel them out. Poor chemistry and injuries seal their coffin before the new year.
14. Sacramento - They can't really be any worse than they were last year.
15. Memphis - They took a terrible team and added Zach Randolph and Allen Iverson. Expect 65 losses and a lot of hurt feelings.

Eastern Conference All-Stars:
Wade - Carter - LeBron - Garnett - Howard
Rondo, Joe Johnson, Iguodala, Pierce Granger, Bosh, Shaq

Western Conference All-Stars:
Paul - Kobe - Dirk - Duncan - Amare
Billups, Parker, Roy, Williams, Durant, Gasol, Oden

Awards:
MVP - LeBron James - Best player in the NBA. Beats Roy because of better stats across the board
ROY - James Harden - Is a poor man's Brandon Roy in his rookie season, and is given partial credit for the Thunder's improvement
6th Man - Paul Millsap - They keep Boozer, and Millsap continues to be awesome off the bench
MIP - Anthony Randolph - Narrowly defeats Oden and continues to become the next KG.
DPotY - Dwight Howard - Who else? He'll look to build on last year's success.
CotY - Nate McMillan - OMG they improved!
Exec - Kevin Pritchard - Long overdue.

[Rip32]

Jason Maxiell is really in a make or break year this year. His rebounding is inconsistent and if he cant find himself a nitche this season, Kuester's gonna go with Kwame/Wallace (blah) with Jerebko cutting into that PT. That said, I don't think the Pistons will be in 2nd to last-- unless somehow Will Bynum out-plays Stuckey for a second straight season. They'll be ahead of Jersey and NY for sure.

Devin Harris was great when he had Vince Carter to get 18-20 a night to take some pressure off of him, but Courtney Lee hasn't shown the same scorer's mentality in the NBA he did in college.

I just don't see the Knicks being a good team. I mean,they didn't really add anyone outside Jordan Hill and he isn't really going to help that defense. He was foul prone at Arizona and he is going to be much the same in the L.

Anyways, they're a 7 or 8 seed I think. Reports out of camp are all positive and they have the possiblilty of having one of the best offensive guard rotations in the league. If Kwame Brown and Ben Wallace somehow combined to average 8 ppg and 12 rpg and Charlie Villanueva uses is talent down-low instead of shooting threes, they're a lock to get knocked out of the playoffs by Orlando/Cleveland/Boston.



EDIT: After reading that Detroit summary again Benji, 50 losses would put us in the running for the number one pick, which would actually be pretty nice. Ed Davis and Cole Aldrich are two college guys I really like that'll be top 5 picks next year. But jesus, 50 losses would be one epic FAIL haha.

[benji]

Guess I forgot to post this after the NLSC went down as I tried to post it before:
MVP - LeBron James. UNLESS. The media doesn't want to award it to him, then they'll start looking at Wade, Paul, Howard, and Roy to come up with some competition.
ROY - Austin Daye will deserve it. But, if Blake Griffin puts up something around 15/7 he's likely to win it. Guys like Harden and Curry could have a shot at it if they get enough minutes and touches. Basically anyone who starts has a solid look at it similar to last year had Rose not been anointed from day one no matter what.
6TH - I'd say Ben Gordon has a shot, as well as anyone who puts up around 15+ ppg off the bench. Especially if on a good team.
MIP - Randolph has a good shot, Oden as well. Basically, like always, anyone who plays more minutes than the year before, especially if the team gets better.
DPOY - Of course it's Howard.
COTY - McMillan could get it if they win the West. But if Charlotte, Houston, Washington, Golden State or Minnesota make the playoffs their coaches have a good shot at getting the hype.

Anyway, here's those record projections the WAAW projector spit out. Remember, no injuries, ideal rotation, players perform as last year except for mentioned cases above.
1. CLE (65-17)
2. ORL (63-19)
3. BOS (57-25)
4. ATL (46-36)
5. CHA (45-37)
6. MIA (42-40)
7. MIL (40-42)
8. CHI (39-43)
9. TOR (38-44)
10. IND (38-44)
11. PHI (38-44)
12. NJN (38-44)
13. WAS (34-48)
14. NYK (34-48)
15. DET (33-49)

1. LAL (61-21)
2. POR (60-22)
3. DEN (54-28)
4. SAS (52-30)
5. NOH (52-30)
6. DAL (51-31)
7. HOU (51-31)
8. UTA (50-32)
9. PHO (48-34)
10. MIN (40-42)
11. GSW (39-43)
12. OKC (35-47)
13. LAC (34-48)
14. MEM (26-56)
15. SAC (19-63)

[shadowgrin]

for 6th man, Jamal Crawford has a shot if all goes well for him and the Hawks.

[Alejandrov011]

Using Benji record projections...

* Portland wont be that high unless they fix their chemistry problems... But 50+ wins are a lock.
* Milwaukee 40-42?... Sure... They will be at the bottom of the East... 22 Wins
* There is no way Houston can win 51 games...
* Phoenix doesn't have a true center now that Lopez is injured, but Channing Frye can be an outside threat. The will be in playoffs in 6 to 8 spot

[Lamrock]

Portland has chemistry problems?

[benji]

Simmons:

Eastern Conference
1. Boston, 62-20
2. Orlando, 60-22
3. Cleveland, 59-23
4. Chicago, 49-33
5. Atlanta, 44-38
6. Washington, 43-39
7. Miami, 42-40
8. Philly, 40-42
9. Charlotte, 39-43
10. Toronto, 39-43
11. New York, 32-50
12. Detroit, 31-51
13. Indiana, 26-56
14. New Jersey, 25-57
15. Milwaukee, 19-63

Western Conference
1. San Antonio, 64-18
2. L.A. Lakers, 63-19
3. Utah, 51-31
4. New Orleans, 48-34
5. Dallas, 46-36
6. L.A. Clippers, 45-37
7. Houston, 44-38
8. Denver, 44-38
9. Phoenix, 43-39
10. Zombies, 42-40
11. Portland, 41-41
12. Golden State, 28-54
13. Memphis, 24-58
14. Minnesota, 22-60
15. Sacramento, 15-67

[J@3]

I saw that the other day. The guy is to NBA knowledge as I am to race relations with the Philippines.

[shadowgrin]

Portland has chemistry problems?

If by chemistry problem he means Andre Miller and Nate McMillan aren't in the same page right now, yes it's a problem.
Other than that nothing new. Nate has the balls to bench a PG like Miller if it keeps going like that.

[Andrew]

Chicago, 49-33 with their current roster? I'd love to see it, highly doubt I will.

[Oznogrd]

Simmons has teams he likes and picks them for little to no reason other than his gut. For instance in the NFL this year: he picked the st louis rams to win their division, they are probably the worst team in the league currently. He picks based on odd little quirks. things like that. I do find the guy hysterical so I do follow him on ESPN, but his humor is usually > than his picks.