2011-12 Season Projections

[Nick]

If anybody wants to give an updated ranking then do it now, now that the free agency dust has settled a bit, and in a few days i'll average it all out give an NLSC "collective" projected standings, and we can see how close we all were at the end of the season.

[rise]

Just made a couple changes from my old predictions.


West (DAMN the West is stacked):
1) OKC
2) LA Clippers
3) Dallas
4) LA Lakers
5) Portland
6) Memphis
7) San Antonio
8) Sacramento
--
New Orleans
Houston
Golden State
Minnesota
Denver
Utah
Phoenix (draft picks! WOOOO!)


East:

1) Chicago
2) Miami
3) New York
4) Atlanta
5) Boston
6) Milwaukee
7) Philly
8) Orlando
--
Indiana
Washington
New Jersey
Toronto
Detroit
Cleveland
Charlotte (draft picks! WOOOO!)

NBA Playoffs:
1st round: OKC, Dallas, Portland, LA Clippers, Miami, Chicago, New York, and Boston advance.
2nd round: OKC beats Portland, Dallas beats LA, New York beats Miami, and Chicago beats Boston.
Conf finals: OKC beats Dallas, New York beats Chicago.
NBA Finals: OKC beats New York in 6, and Kevin Durant is named Finals MVP.

Awards:
MVP: Kevin Durant (30ppg, 8rpg, 1.5bpg, 1.5spg, 50 FG%, 38 3P%, 90 FT%)
MIP: Eric Gordon (28ppg, 4rpg, 4apg, 2spg, 45 FG%, 40 3P%) (he's the main man in New Orleans now)
ROY: Kemba Walker (17ppg, 5apg, 1.5spg)
DPOY: Dwight Howard
6MOY: James Harden (15ppg, 5rpg, 5apg, 1.5spg, 50 FG%, 40 3P%)
COY: Scott Brooks

[Mavs4Life]

Axel: I felt standings 12-15 could be placed in any order. Thinking more about it now, I feel bad I put Houston at rock bottom, editing my list.

[Dan's Brain]

EAST:
1. Chicago (48-18)
2. Miami (47-19)
3. New York (43-23)
4. Boston (39-27)
5. Indiana (36-30)
6. Orlando (35-31)
7. Philadelphia (33-33)
8. Atlanta (31-35)

9. Milwaukee (29-37)
10. Washington (28-38)
11. New Jersey (22-44)
12. Detroit (21-45)
13. Cleveland (19-47)
14. Charlotte (15-51)
15. Toronto (12-54)

WEST:
1. Oklahoma City (49-17)
2. Dallas (47-19)
3. San Antonio (42-24)
4. L.A. Clippers (39-27)
5. L.A. Lakers (38-28)
6. Memphis (35-31)
7. Portland (34-32)
8. Denver (34-32)

9. New Orleans (32-34)
10. Houston (29-37)
11. Golden State (28-38)
12. Minnesota (27-39)
13. Utah (23-43)
14. Phoenix (22-44)
15. Sacramento (19-47)

M.V.P.: Kevin Durant, (smokeys: Derrick Rose, Chris Paul, Dirk Nowitzki)
M.I.P.: DeAndre Jordan (numbers should be inflated, due to increased playing time and increased Paulness and Billupsness. Perhaps not too deserving, but when is it ever?)
6th Man: Someone from Dallas (could be anyone really. Terry and Odom could conceivably tie for it)
R.O.Y.: Kyrie Irving. (Kemba Walker has a minutes fight, or he'd be my pick)
Coach of the Year: Scott Brooks (Thunder taking the extra step. He gets it ahead of (frightened laughter) Vinny Del Negro.
Executive of the Year: Neil Olshey? (Whoever it is from the Clippers, anyway)

EDIT: Forgot D.P.O.Y. - Probably a foregone conclusion, even with the additional distractions that he's facing this year.

[Lamrock]

In lieu of Memphis losing its big man depth, and the rest of the difference makers signing, it's already time for new projections, this time a little more thought out and with analysis.

Eastern Conference

1. Chicago | My and everyone's gut says Miami, but I expect a slight return to form for Rip, and no reason for these guys to falter much at all.
2. Miami | Not the deepest team, which will hurt them in a 66 game campaign.
3. Orlando | Until Dwight gets traded, this team should still be good.
4. Indiana | The additions of George Hill and David West makes them a solid looking team.
5. Boston | Mickael Pietrus would be a good addition if they can get him.
6. New York | Tyson Chandler was one of the best players in the league last year, but is injury prone and just got a big contract.
7. Atlanta | The Hawks had a lame season last year, but had their best playoff performance of this millennium. They lost Crawford, and will struggle with scoring (despite adding T-Mac), but I don't see them in the lottery.
8. Philadelphia | Don't really see why they'd improve.
----------
Milwaukee | Not a fan of Stephen Jackson's game, but I think he's a decent fit with the Bucks, still a decent team.
New Jersey | The Brook Lopez injury could very well ruin everything for them, as it likely puts them out of the Dwight race and possibly cost them Deron Williams.
Charlotte | They'll play hard.
Detroit | You'd think they'd be due for a run at the 8 seed, but their core group of players just isn't good.
Washington | Wall, McGee and Flip are good, but then Andray Blatche and Nick Young were their top two leading scorers last season, and likely will be this year.
Toronto | I think DeMar will have a break out season, but the team has made no upgrades on last season's 60 loss team
Cleveland | Anderson Varejao is easily this team's best player. Think about it.

Western Conference

1. Oklahoma City | Consensus favorite to make the top seed, and for good reason - most promising team in the conference
2. Dallas | I underrated the Mavs' roster in my earlier prediction. Don't agree with starting Odom at the 3, but I bet he has as good as season as Chandler does this year.
3. Portland | Last season, Portland won 48 games and gave the eventual champs a run for their money in the first round. They add two very solid frontcourt role players in Craig Smith and Kurt Thomas, and replace a counter-productive Brandon Roy with Jamal Crawford.
4. LA Lakers | Pau Gasol an MVP candidate.
5. Memphis | Their lack of big man depth will really hurt, and there are some definite question marks, but this Grizzlies team could still be really good.
6. San Antonio | Another year under their belt will not help the Spurs.
7. LA Clippers | It's tempting to put them much higher, but the their likely top 3 scorers (Griffin, Butler, Paul) are all major injury risks, and the team is still quite lacking in depth beyond the point guard position.
8. Denver | Ty Lawson, Nene and Afflalo are very good players, and they have phenomenal depth. Lockout victims though.
----------
Houston | They swapped Chuck Hayes for Sam Dalembert and none of their players figure to improve much next year.
Utah | This is a rebuilding team, but they have do great size, a trio of fringe all-stars in Jefferson, Harris and Millsap, and an abundance of promising young talent.
Golden State | They went 33-49 last season, and responded this offseason by replacing Reggie Williams with Klay Thompson, getting Kwame Brown and naming Mark Jackson coach.
Minnesota | Rick Adelman is one of my favorite coaches, but besides Kevin Love, everybody else is either bad or an unknown.
Sacramento | They want to win this season, but they are the Wizards of the West.
Phoenix | The roster is just devoid of talent. Nash is mercy-traded midway through the season.
New Orleans | 28 PPG from Eric Gordon and no will to win from anybody else.

Awards

MVP: Kevin Durant | Scoring champ, OKC top seed in West
ROY: Kemba Walker | Who's gonna score besides him, Augustin and Maggette?
MIP: DeMar DeRozan | Averages around 24 PPG on an awful Raptors team
6MY: Jason Terry | Since apparently Odom is starting
DPY: Dwight Howard | Easy one.
COY Nate McMillan | Most surprising team!

[Nick]

I'm gonna redo my rankings aswell...

East:
1. Miami
2. Chicago
3. New York
4. Boston
5. Indiana
6. Philadelphia
7. Orlando
8. Atlanta
---
9. New Jersey
10. Milwaukee
11. Washington
12. Toronto
13. Charlotte
14. Cleveland
15. Detroit

West:
1. Oklahoma City
2. Lakers
3. Clippers
4. Portland
5. Dallas
6. San Antonio
7. Grizzlies
8. Houston
---
9. Golden State
10. Denver
11. Utah
12. Minnesota
13. Phoenix
14. Sacramento
15. New Orleans

[Main Bounce]

East

1 Miami- Hmmm thought of it in a heartbeat, Amnesty on Chris Bosh = Championship
2 Orlando- Retaining Dwight w/ Deron Williams finally joining ex-finals team
3 Chicago- Now more Lethal with offense and defensive stopper Rip Hamilton
4 Boston- Yep, despite losing more bigs plus Jeff Green due to heart problems
5 New York- Acquiring Chandler to get them defensive, opposing Anthony's saying they need more shooters
6 Indiana- Yeah, I know... surprise surprise!!! Adding front line D. West plus agile guards George Hill will do the trick
7 Atlanta- No Major changes yet, but the major change they would do is free cap space that means losing Josh Smith
8 Milwaukee- I was thinking Washington, but still to inexperience leader and support except for Lewis. Brandon Jennings still better with solid
Big Man Bogut with way better experienced support Stephen Jackson.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Runners up
New Jersey
Washington
Cleveland
Charlotte
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Biggest LOSER
Detroit- Already gamble Big Contracts on Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon, plus they added more gamble on Rodney Stuckey.
Losing Rip Hamilton to free cap is a lil bit nonsense if still gambling on Big Contracts. One thing I agreed is retaining Prince!!!

[Nutellar]

This time i let the 2K12 engine speak for me:

West:

1-Dallas
2-LA Clippers
3-San Antonio
4-LA Lakers
5- Oklahoma City
6- Golden State
7- Portland
8- Denver

9-Houston
10- Memphis
11- Phoenix
12- New Orleans
13- MInnesota
14- Utah
15- Sacramento


East:

1-Miami
2-Chicago
3-Boston
4-New York
5-Orlando
6-Indiana
7-New Jersey
8-Atlanta

9-Charlotte
10-Philadelphia
11-Cleveland
12-Milwaukee
13-Toronto
14-Washington
15-Detroit

Champions:

Dallas in 5 Games vs. the Knicks

SeasonMVP: LBJ
FinalsMVP: Swish41
DPotY: Dwight
6th: Gilbert Arenas
Rookie: Kyrie Irving

[Kenny]

East

1 Miami- Hmmm thought of it in a heartbeat, Amnesty on Chris Bosh = Championship

[Houndy]

West
1. Oklahoma CIty- Them being young gives themm a young advantage in the 66 games in 120 days.
2. Dallas- I love em, but OKC's youth is what earns them the 1 seed. Look for a push in the playoffs by the Mavs.
3. Memphis- They're backcourt is great, and like the Thunder, young.
4. Clippers- WIth CP3 leading the show, they'll run through the Lakers.
5. Lakers- Lakers will lose out to the Clippers, but give em a fight in the playoffs.
6. Portland- They look good this year.
7- San Antonio- The Spurs are old, which gives them a huge disadvantage.
8- Denver- Wilson Chandler+all the guys in China will give them a playoff push in Spain.

East
1. Miami- Team determined are have more chemistry with eachother.
2. Chicago- D-Rose continue to lead his team to high seeds.
3. New York- With the addition of Chandler, this team gets a little defense.
4. Boston- Celtics will be old and struggle, but will scare some teams.
5. Atlanta- Hawks are always #5.
6. Indiana- They're made some nice moves, and are slowly building a contender.
7. Philadelphia- After giving the Heat a scare, it's time for this Sixers to scare some other teams.
8. Orlando- You might say, 8th? Dwight hasn't played inspired, and I think they'll struggle.

[Sideshow Bob]

East
1. Miami
2. Chicago
3. Boston
4. New York
5. Atlanta
6. Milwaukee
7. Indiana
8. Cleveland
-----------------
9. Orlando Magic
10. Washington Wizards
11. Detroit Pistons
12. Philadelphia 76ers
13. New Jersey Nets
14. Charlotte Bobcats
15. Toronto Raptors

West
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. Dallas Mavericks
3. San Antonio Spurs
4. Los Angeles Clippers
5. Memphis Grizzlies
6. Los Angeles Lakers
7. Denver Nuggets
8. Golden State Warriors
------------------------------
9. Sacramento Kings
10. Portland Trailblazers
11. Phoenix Suns
12. Houston Rockets
13. New Orleans Hornets
14. Minnesota Timberwolves
15. Utah Jazz

[Nick]

NLSC COLLECTIVE PERSPECTIVE
Sorry i took so long, i was away for 2 weeks, and only built up motivation to do this today.
I went through all the posts here (of the guys who ranked the full 15 of each conference... not including the guy who simmed 2k12), and recorded where each team got ranked, plugged into a thingo i made in excel and determined the average rank for each team. It took fucking ages, so be grateful.

Anyway here is what NLSC as a whole thinks the season standings will look like at the end of the season...

East:
1. Miami (avg rank: 1.4)
2. Chicago (1.9)
3. New York (3.9)
4. Boston (4.2)
5. Atlanta (5.9)
6. *Orlando (6.2)
7. *Indiana (6.2)
8. Philadelphia (7.2)
---
9. Milwaukee (9.1)
10. Washington (10.9)
11. New Jersey (11.1)
12. Detroit (12.1)
13. Charlotte (12.8)
14. Toronto (13.3)
15. Cleveland (13.4)

West:
1. Oklahoma City (avg rank: 1.3)
2. Dallas (2.4)
3. Lakers (3.9)
4. *San Antonio (4.4)
5. *Clippers (4.4)
6. Grizzlies (5.4)
7. Portland (6.8)
8. Houston (9.6)
---
9. Denver (9.7)
10. Golden State (10.1)
11. *Utah (12.2)
12. *Minnesota (12.2)
13. *Phoenix (avg rank: 12.4)
14. *Sacramento (avg rank: 12.4)
15. New Orleans (avg rank: 12.6)

* = tied

Observations:
- The most varying team was Denver. They were ranked all over the place from 5th to 15th. They are probably the hardest team to predict this year. They ended up with an average ranking of 9.7 in NLSC rankings.
- Seems like from from 11 down in the West, there doesn't seem to be a consensus for which teams will be better and worse.
- Top 7 in the West is clear consensus.
- Top 8 in the East seems consensus, with Milwaukee lurking in the shadows.
- OKC consensus #1 seed.
- MIA and CHI consensus top 2 seeds.

Obviously, anything can happen. But it will be interesting to see how close we are!

[Andrew]

Good stuff, appreciate the efforts.

It's early days but looks like the Sixers are proving us wrong. Seems most of us didn't give Denver and Portland enough credit as well.

[Nick]

NLSC COLLECTIVE PERSPECTIVE

East:
1. Miami (avg rank: 1.4)
2. Chicago (1.9)
3. New York (3.9)
4. Boston (4.2)
5. Atlanta (5.9)
6. *Orlando (6.2)
7. *Indiana (6.2)
8. Philadelphia (7.2)
---
9. Milwaukee (9.1)
10. Washington (10.9)
11. New Jersey (11.1)
12. Detroit (12.1)
13. Charlotte (12.8)
14. Toronto (13.3)
15. Cleveland (13.4)

West:
1. Oklahoma City (avg rank: 1.3)
2. Dallas (2.4)
3. Lakers (3.9)
4. *San Antonio (4.4)
5. *Clippers (4.4)
6. Grizzlies (5.4)
7. Portland (6.8)
8. Houston (9.6)
---
9. Denver (9.7)
10. Golden State (10.1)
11. *Utah (12.2)
12. *Minnesota (12.2)
13. *Phoenix (avg rank: 12.4)
14. *Sacramento (avg rank: 12.4)
15. New Orleans (avg rank: 12.6)

* = tied

The results are in! Actual standings...

East:
1. Chicago
2. Miami
3. Indiana
"4". Boston
"5". Atlanta
6. Orlando
7. New York
8. Philadelphia
---
9. Milwaukee
10. Detroit
11. Toronto
12. New Jersey
13. Cleveland
14. Washington
15. Charlotte

West:
1. San Antonio
2. Oklahoma City
3. LA Lakers
4. Memphis
5. LA Clippers
6. Denver
7. Dallas
8. Utah
---
9. Houston
10. Phoenix
11. Portland
12. Minnesota
13. Golden State
14. Sacramento
15. New Orleans

Observations:
- NLSC picked the top 8 of the East correctly.
- As expected, Chicago and Miami were top of the east.
- New York didn't do as well as expected.
- Boston, Orlando and Atlanta were guessed correctly by the NLSC collective.
- NLSC underestimated Indiana
- NLSC didn't pick Charlotte as one of the worst teams in NBA history
- NLSC predicted Milwaukee would be on the cusp of the playoffs.
- Spurs were once again the Western elite, which nobody really expected.
- NLSC overestimated Dallas
- Portland had a disappointing season, by measure of NLSC expectation.
- Denver showed that team chemistry is what matters. They were pinned for 9th, based on their roster.
- Utah were one of the underrated teams coming into the season, based on NLSC expectation.
- Clippers expectations were in the right place.
- New Orleans sucked as expected.

So there you go.

[Andrew]

14/16 on the Playoff teams. I'll take it.