0809 Stat. Review (and 0910 Projections!)

I finally finished up my data entry for the 2008-09 season. It got delayed a bit this year for various reasons.

I have tons of data on every player who played last year (except for one but I forget who) and things like who takes and makes the most shots late in the shot clock, who scores the most per 36 on jumpers/inclose/dunking/etc., who blocks the most dunks, so and on so forth. Ask away and I will mine it for you, here's an example of that last one. The percentage of opponent dunks the player blocks, minimum 25% of minutes:

Code:

Player   Dbk%   
przybilla,joel   10.3   por
maxiell,jason   10.0   det
dampier,erick   8.0   dal
oden,greg   6.7   por
andersen,chris   6.4   den
okafor,emeka   4.7   cha
krstic,nenad   4.3   okc
wallace,ben   3.7   cle
batum,nicolas   3.5   por
smith,josh   3.4   atl

I've also done a few 09-10 projections based on last years numbers. No rookies of course and it's just an idea of how things will change.

A small one was Artest replacing Ariza and Radmanovic on last years Lakers. They project out as 57-25.

Here's a larger one of the Cavs:

Code:

Player   MPG
james,lebron   37.1
williams,mo   33.8
o'neal,shaquille   28.9
varejao,anderson   28.0
west,delonte   24.1
parker,anthony   24.1
ilgauskas,zydrun   21.7
moon,jamario   19.3
gibson,daniel   14.5
hickson,j.j.   9.6

63-64 wins (63.6-18.4)

Raptors:

Code:

Player   MPG
turkoglu,hedo   36.2
bosh,chris   36.2
calderon,jose   33.8
bargnani,andrea   32.8
jack,jarrett   25.1
belinelli,marco   24.2
wright,antoine   24.2
evans,reggie   13.5
nesterovic,rasho   13.0
ukic,roko   2.4

31-51

Pistons:

Code:

Player   MPG
prince,tayshaun   36.4
hamilton,richard   34.0
villanueva,charl   34.0
stuckey,rodney   31.6
gordon,ben   31.6
brown,kwame   24.3
maxiell,jason   19.4
bynum,will   12.1
wallace,ben   9.7
wilcox,chris   9.7

31-32 wins (31.6-50.4)

With Austin Daye replacing Prince and Wilcox's minutes: 80-2.

Magic (with Rashard's 10 game suspension):

Code:

Player   MPG
howard,dwight   36.1
carter,vince   36.1
nelson,jameer   33.7
lewis,rashard   31.8
pietrus,mickael   31.3
bass,brandon   16.4
johnson,anthony   14.4
redick,j.j.   12.0
gortat,marcin   12.0
barnes,matt   12.0
anderson,ryan   4.8

62-64 wins (62.8-19.2)

Taking the suspension minutes back from Anderson doesn't change it too much, it's still 62-64 wins, just 62.6-19.4 instead.

You got projections for the Knicks, with and without Lee and Robinson?? I also want to see who has hit the most three-pointers with the shot-clock winding down. Good stuff Benji.

Do you have anything interesting about the Rockets? I dont have anything that I want to know in particular, but I'm sure that you will have plenty of interesting stuffs about them.

I don't actually have split outs on the last shots. So you'll have to settle for these. All are 12.5% of minutes or more.

% of possessions that ends in a three pointer:

Code:

novak,steve   lac   61.0
diawara,yakhouba   mia   60.8
bogans,keith   orl   53.4
cook,daequan   mia   50.4
jones,james   mia   49.2
herrmann,walter   det   46.7
house,eddie   bos   46.6
radmanovic,vladimir   lal   43.7
carney,rodney   min   43.4
stojakovic,pedja   noh   43.1

Points scored off three pointers per 36:

Code:

house,eddie   bos   11.2
novak,steve   lac   11.0
cook,daequan   mia   9.2
fernandez,rudy   por   9.1
smith,j.r.   den   8.4
lewis,rashard   orl   8.3
radmanovic,vladimir   lal   8.2
stojakovic,pedja   noh   7.8
granger,danny   ind   7.7
allen,ray   bos   7.6

% of teams made baskets in the last three seconds of the shot clock while the player is on the floor:

Code:

Player      LM%
ukic,roko   tor   22.5%
bryant,kobe   lal   18.7%
anthony,carmelo   den   16.8%
ford,t.j.   ind   15.1%
james,lebron   cle   13.9%
johnson,joe   atl   13.3%
parker,tony   sas   12.6%
jefferson,al   min   12.3%
salmons,john   chi   12.2%
hill,george   sas   12.1%
jackson,bobby   sac   11.9%
davis,baron   lac   11.3%
duncan,tim   sas   11.3%
williams,deron   uta   11.3%
robinson,nate   nyk   10.7%
paul,chris   noh   10.5%
telfair,sebastian   min   10.5%
wade,dwyane   mia   10.2%
roy,brandon   por   10.1%
butler,caron   was   9.8%

The Knicks are rough, they don't really have a backcourt outside of Hughes and Duhon without Robinson. Curry is being assumed to play like in 2007-08. First without:

Code:

Player   MPG
duhon,chris   36.2
harrington,al   36.2
hughes,larry   36.2
chandler,wilson   33.8
curry,eddy   31.4
milicic,darko   29.0
jeffries,jared   24.2
gallinari,danilo   14.5

23-24 wins (23.6-58.4)

With:

Code:

Player   MPG
lee,david   33.8
chandler,wilson   33.8
duhon,chris   33.8
harrington,al   31.4
robinson,nate   31.4
curry,eddy   26.6
milicic,darko   21.7
hughes,larry   19.3
jeffries,jared   4.8
gallinari,danilo   4.8

33-35 wins (34.2-47.8)

Do you have anything interesting about the Rockets? I dont have anything that I want to know in particular, but I'm sure that you will have plenty of interesting stuffs about them.

If McGrady comes back and plays two-thirds of the season at his 07-08 level, there's no reason to not think they won't still be a playoff team. This projection is quite noisy.

Code:

Player   MPG
ariza,trevor   36.2
scola,luis   33.8
landry,carl   33.8
battier,shane   31.4
mcgrady,tracy   31.4
brooks,aaron   29.0
lowry,kyle   28.9
hayes,chuck   16.9

50-55 wins (53.4-28.6)

Thanks Benji, that was very quick.

Sixers without Miller, with Lou taking his minutes and Jrue taking Lou's minutes.
One with Brand and one without.


EDIT: Jae's right. My bad.
How about try placing Tinsley there, since the Heat have cancelled their meeting with him. Just if.

Last edited by shadowgrin on Sun Aug 09, 2009 6:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.

I don't think you could do one with Jrue because he hasn't played yet so there's no stats to use.

Could you post Cavs with Joe Smith, if possible? I'm interested if that changes anything, since they are probably going to sign either him or Powe.

Can I please see Miami and Lakers with & without Odom? Am interested to see what effect his has on statistical wins.

Also Blazers with & without Andre Miller. Thanks in advance.

I highly doubt the Raptors will be as bad as you say (they are the new Hawks!), but these posts are always interesting. Far better than ESPN team articles. ("With Jamal Crawford in tow, the Hawks look to build on last season's success and possibly make the conference finals") Would love to see you do a power ranking for everybody at the start of the season. Like The X said, I'm interested to see whether Portland improves with/without Miller, and also with Oden playing 30+ minutes. (I think he will give Anthony Randolph a run for his money in the MIP race!)

How much the Chandler-Okafor swap affects the Hornets? How many wins are projected now and before trade? Same thing for Charlotte.

I highly doubt the Raptors will be as bad as you say

What upgrades did they make? They added a bunch of average or below average players to replace the ones they had last year. Belinelli and Wright are a side-grade at best from Parker/Kapono. Is Turkoglu really an upgrade over the Moon/Marion set from last season? Again side-grade at best, potentially a down-grade depending on how many possessions he sucks up. Rasho and Jack give you better backups by a bit, but they're hardly anything special, and they're upgrades only in the sense that O'Neal and Ukic used way too many possessions. They probably even got worse defensively since Belinelli has never guarded anyone in his life and Turkoglu is a major step down from Parker, Graham, Moon and Marion. As bad as O'Neal is offensively, he's still a very good defender, Rasho can't even try to match him or play as many minutes.

Could you post Cavs with Joe Smith, if possible? I'm interested if that changes anything, since they are probably going to sign either him or Powe.

Not really, both players add maybe a win or so best case. (Powe is higher.) They're already approaching a level where you could bring a second LeBron off the bench and only add a couple more wins.

Sixers, Brand healthy but plays like the last two years:

Code:

Player   MPG
iguodala,andre   38.5
williams,louis   36.1
young,thaddeus   33.7
brand,elton   31.3
dalembert,samuel   24.1
speights,marrees   24.1
green,willie   21.7
kapono,jason   16.9
tinsley,jamaal   14.5

31-32 wins

Same but with Brand near All-Star level: 42-40.

Hornets:

Code:

Player   MPG
west,david   38.5
paul,chris   38.5
okafor,emeka   33.7
posey,james   28.9
butler,rasual   28.9
stojakovic,pedja   28.9
armstrong,hilton   14.5
daniels,antonio   9.6
brown,devin   9.6
wright,julian   9.6

49-50 wins.

Chandler makes them 50-51 wins.

Bobcats:

Code:

Player   MPG
felton,raymond   36.5
diaw,boris   36.5
wallace,gerald   36.5
bell,raja   34.0
chandler,tyson   31.6
augustin,d.j.   26.7
diop,desagana   17.0
radmanovic,vladi   17.0
ajinca,alexis   7.3

41-44 wins.

Replacing Chandler with Okafor and taking three minutes from Diop to give to Okafor: 41-43 wins.
For what it's worth, flipping Augustin and Felton's minutes takes them to 45-46 wins with Chandler.

Blazers, no Miller:

Code:

Player   MPG
aldridge,lamarcu   36.3
roy,brandon   36.3
blake,steve   31.4
oden,greg   29.0
outlaw,travis   26.6
fernandez,rudy   24.2
przybilla,joel   21.8
webster,martell   21.8
batum,nicolas   14.5

62-20

Blazers, Miller:

Code:

Player   MPG
aldridge,lamarcu   36.3
roy,brandon   36.3
miller,andre   33.9
oden,greg   29.0
outlaw,travis   24.2
przybilla,joel   21.8
fernandez,rudy   19.3
blake,steve   14.5
webster,martell   14.5
batum,nicolas   12.1

59-60 wins

Yeah, the Raptors won't be any better defensively. I think Bosh being in a contract year, Calderon no longer being injured and their overall depth will be enough to make them 4th or 5th in the East, but they are my second favorite team, so I'm probably biased.

Though the Miller deal seems to hurt the team, I'm liking the win total you give them. Question: How does the same group of guys + Webster and minus Frye go from 54 wins to 62? Does Webster-for-Frye make that much of a difference? Either way, I hope they go with your rotation and it pans out nearly as well as you project.

To be 4th or 5th in the East they'd have to be better than Atlanta, Miami, Philadelphia, Chicago, Washington, Charlotte and potentially Milwaukee and Indiana. My projections are always with zero injuries, so you have Calderon playing 82 games.

The Blazers were a 56 win pythag team last year. Frye, Bayless and Rodriguez were all "losers" with 19-20% usage rates who played 746, 655 and 1225 minutes. Notice, none of them are in my projection, that's a combined 2000+ minutes now being given to superior players. It's like adding an above average starter. Webster's 2007-08 isn't that great (and taking a third of his minutes and giving them to Fernandez probably pushes them higher), but he's better than those three easily.

I'm getting to the Heat (Boozer?) and Odom stuff, but we're about to have a wicked thunderstorm and I didn't want to start anything just to lose power in the middle of it.

Benji I'm assuming you live in the Northeast cause of the thunderstorm. Anyways my questions is how are you coming up with these stats? Like what references and sites are you using?

He watches the games.
It's an emabarassing secret that benji hides.

I assume it's a combination of basketball-reference, 82games, and his own statistical formulae.

I'm pretty sure Bayless will be forced into the rotation somehow, Blake and Miller's minutes will be closer to even and Webster will either be dealt or play garbage time. Might be wrong though. Looking forward to the next set of updates.

I'm pretty sure Bayless will be forced into the rotation somehow, Blake and Miller's minutes will be closer to even and Webster will either be dealt or play garbage time. Might be wrong though. Looking forward to the next set of updates.

Well, I'm not a fan of anything so I don't stay up on all the hot gossip, I was just eyeballing the minutes based on how much they played recently, where are they likely to play (i.e. with the Blazers without Miller example, because Bayless is so bad, I assumed they'd be willing to let Roy handle the ball primarily and play Fernandez alongside him), what's an ideal rotation, etc. I'll gladly take suggestions for minutes to put the guys at, or even wild fantasies.

Benji I'm assuming you live in the Northeast cause of the thunderstorm. Anyways my questions is how are you coming up with these stats? Like what references and sites are you using?

Michigan. We get them, they power up over the Great Lakes and as they pass over the Frozen Wasteland then you guys get them.

Anyway, shadowgrin is mostly right. From B-R.com I only get the totals, I used to get them from nba.com, but B-R's "CSV" makes copy/pasty super easy. All the stats on there are easy enough to calculate and have been in my files for years now. Then I go to 82games.com to acquire the data from the play-by-play. See: http://www.82games.com/0809/08DET11.HTM for an example. Everything is extracted out of this base data. For example for the three second shooting above, 82games has the individual value, it takes a couple calculations and you can see the players share of the team.

Some like Jae and KevC have seen the files. Here's an older example for the Bucks that has about 90% of what the final database of this year has. This is about 15% bigger than the one from 2007-08, and so on. The older ones have been scrapped, I'll have to re-enter the data at some point back to 2002-03 because it's grown a ton since 2007. I'm constantly adding things, adding columns to "try things out" and so forth. The file now requires the 2007 Excel format, the old xls is too small and can't handle the number of columns. There's some stuff which should just be trimmed out from the main file anyway. I have a raw data file (not organized into teams, etc.) for sorting I could throw up if there's interest. I usually separate it by positions (C/PF, SF/SG, PG) and combine the players who got traded, but I have yet to do that.

Anyway, for the projections, basically it works like this. A teams possessions are made up by player possessions. We can define the player possessions, then add it up for a team, or distribute a teams possessions based on that info. In this case, we're doing both. Essentially we say, if these players play together, and there's this many total possessions, and they play this many minutes, we can expect this usage, and knowing how efficient they are we can extrapolate this point production. Then you add it all up and get the team values. Then it's a simple pythag to get the record off the point differential.

The concept of finite possessions is very important, and often overlooked. A player like a Joel Pryzbilla or Erick Dampier is more valuable to a team with stars than Jermaine O'Neal or Antoine Walker because they don't use possessions, when they do it's very efficient (i.e. they mostly only dunk or tip in shots) and they also get offensive boards saving possessions. O'Neal and Walker use a ton of possessions (taking them from teammates which would be okay except...) they're very inefficient in them so they kill the team even while getting gaudy per game numbers. If you have Walker or O'Neal and they pull up for a three pointer or a jumper out of the high post, that's a shot their teammates can't have. That's not to say these players can't be valuable (i.e. like offloading all the bad possessions to them or bailing the team out...or say if O'Neal became an offensive rebounder, star defender who didn't need ten bad jumpers a game, or as Walker redefined himself for the 2006 Heat title as a bail out ball handler or spot up shooter) but we can't really ever know when a player will actually adjust how they play so we have to assume they'll perform as they did in the past.

This year I've been looking at using 2007-08 or 2008-09 data to make projections instead of just the prior season. Especially in cases of outlier years. (Redd and Bogut on the Bucks this year were one if we assume they play as well as they did in the 30 or so games this year, we should expect the Bucks to be a 45-50 win team with them playing 82 games along with Sessions, Mbah a Moute, random PF all starting. But if you use the 2007-08 data which is closer to their norms, we're looking at 40-ish wins best case.) Of course, we can never know when a player has a fluke year (Murray having a career year off the Hawks bench after looking like he'd be out of the league in the prior two years) or rejuvenation (Shaq deciding to wreck everyone last year) not to mention injuries. In many cases the projections are "best case" scenarios such as last years Pacers looking like a 50 win team, then losing Dunleavy for almost the entire year among others. (And coaches who never find the obvious optimal rotation. Or teams, like the Wizards, who insist on playing DeShawn Stevenson, Juan Dixon, Mike James, etc.)

BTW: If anyone is interested in the 2008-09 projections (which were not as advanced as the ones this year can be if I get around to them) they are in this post. Always remember, these were based on the year prior, no injuries, optimal rotations, etc. Lulz at Pistons and Hawks. I can't forsee major trades like Miller/Salmons, or say LeBron having a historic season or Durant finding his star potential, either. That said, I've of course learned from last year, which is why I'm taking far more things into account this time around.

That said, I did warn you about the Clippers. (And I had them fully healthy!) (Also Ronny Turiaf.)

Blazers at 5.... FAIL

Post of that thread.

Did this simple:

Code:

Player   MPG
wade,dwyane   38.9
o'neal,jermaine   36.5
chalmers,mario   34.1
beasley,michael   34.1
haslem,udonis   34.1
cook,daequan   17.0
diawara,yakhouba   17.0
quinn,chris   14.6
anthony,joel   7.3
jones,james   4.9
magloire,jamaal   4.9
41-41

Odom replacing Haslem: 43-39
0809Boozer replacing Haslem: 35-47
0708Boozer replacing Haslem: 42-40