2015 Playoffs: (1) Atlanta vs. (2) Cleveland

[Lamrock]

Even with the injuries and ATL's underwhelming play, the inevitable ATL/CLE conference finals is among us. Indeed, the winner of this series between a battered Cavs team and an overrated Hawks team gets the honor of being swept by the Warriors.

I wouldn't be stunned if ATL took this one given the injuries, but they barely beat the Nets and Wizards, and LeBron is well, LeBron. Cavaliers in a close 6 game series.

Someone new should make these threads next playoffs. I'm out of ideas.

[[Q]]

I think the Hawks win in 7. It will be a closely contested series.

[NovU]

Hawks in 7.

I hope Millsap comes up big in this series. He could.

[Andrew]

I'm going with the Hawks in 6, though I can't shake the feeling it'll be another pick that I regret after the first two games. That said, the Cavs are battling a lot of injuries at the moment.

Are the Hawks really overrated? I mean, I'm seeing that suggestion pop up more and more, and once the consensus is that something or someone is overrated, technically they cease being overrated. The Hawks won 60 games and are in the Conference Finals. You don't get there without being pretty decent.

[JAWSFreelao]

Atlanta is a decent team, yes. But the NBA got carried away the second they named Korver an All-Star and all five Hawks' starters for EC players of the month.

[Andrew]

Agreed, Korver's All-Star selection was overkill, and the whole starting five being named Player of the Month was silly. I don't know that that makes them overrated though; they had a great regular season and made it through to the Conference Finals, albeit not in dominating fashion. The general thought seems to be that they weren't as good as some thought they might be when they were racking up the wins in the regular season, so common opinion doesn't seem to overrate them.

[Jackal]

I hope to everything that Atlanta wins this one, I just got back from Atlanta a week or so ago and liked it. But I have a feeling this will be Cavs in 6.

[benji]

I just got back from Atlanta a week or so ago and liked it.

that airport tho

[NovU]

I don't know about overrated but they overachieved fo sho imo.

There are about 16 teams in history with same record (60 wins, or same W/L%)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... er_by=wins
- Notice the Hawks are by far the most 3pt reliant team on the list.
- SRS says the Hawks are the worst team among the list.

I do think the Hawks are quite weak team compared to other recent 60 wins teams.



PS: Korver was significant to Hawks success this year. So if other Hawks were gonna make it the ASG, Korver probably deserved a nod too.

[Andrew]

"Overachieved" is definitely a better word here. Of course, that's not a bad thing.

[JAWSFreelao]

Nope, not bad at all. But I have a problem with Korver making All-Star when guys like Vucevic & Knigh in the East and Monta Ellis in the West are getting hardcore snubs.

[Mandich]

The Cavs are going to get help from the refs. And LeBron can go berserk at any time.

Cavs to the Finals.

[benji]

By pythagorean record this season:
ATL: 56-26 (4th)
CLE: 53-29 (5th)

On Feb 6th, the Hawks were 42-9, they finished 18-13. 26-17 if we include the playoffs.
On Jan 13th, the Cavaliers were 19-20, they finished 34-9. 42-11 if we include the playoffs.

One of the best pythag examples? 2002-03.

Actual record:
SAS: 60-22 (1st)
DET: 50-32 (5th)
NJN: 49-33 (8th)

Pythag:
SAS: 57-25 (3rd)
NJN: 56-26 (4th)
DET: 52-30 (5th)

The next year has a decent one:
LAL: 56-26 (4th)
DET: 54-28 (6th)

Pythag:
DET: 59-23 (2nd)
LAL: 52-30 (7th)

Lakers had 18-3 start, 38-23 the rest of the way. Including an 18-17 stretch.
Pistons had as 34-24 start when they traded for Sheed and then went 20-4. 36-11 if you include the playoffs.

[benji]

- Notice the Hawks are by far the most 3pt reliant team on the list.

Of course they are, they're the latest team.

- SRS says the Hawks are the worst team among the list.

I do think the Hawks are quite weak team compared to other recent 60 wins teams.

The SRS only matters against the season they play in:
GSW: 10.01
LAC: 6.80
SAS: 6.34
ATL: 4.75
POR: 4.41
CLE: 4.08

Last year was kinda fun:
SAS: 8.00
LAC: 7.27
OKC: 6.66
GSW: 5.15
HOU: 5.06
POR: 4.44
MIA: 4.15
IND: 3.63
MIN: 3.10
PHO: 3.02
DAL: 2.91
TOR: 2.55
MEM: 2.18

[NovU]

Interesting. I thought SRS was a point differential metric based on strength of the schedule.

[Jackal]

I just got back from Atlanta a week or so ago and liked it.

that airport tho

The carpeting really needs to go, I went back in 2008 and it's basically the same. The place is huge though.

Korver really needs to find his shot for Atlanta to have a legit chance.

[mp3]

I voted Cavs in 6.

The Hawks have strong team play while the Cavs have great individual players in LeBron and Kyrie.

I think the Cavs will shine through as long as they don't pick up any more injuries

[iamSamke]

I voted Cavs in 6.

The Hawks have strong team play while the Cavs have great individual players in LeBron and Kyrie.

I think the Cavs will shine through as long as they don't pick up any more injuries

Agree!

[Kevin]

Hawks in 6.

Meh, it doesn't really matter. They'll get killed by Steph in the Finals anyways

[JaoSming]

Hawks in 5, I'm done with sleeping on em

[JAWSFreelao]

LeByrie and the Cavs in seven. Doesn't matter like Kev says, Warriors/Rockets would murderr either.

[benji]

[benji]

Interesting. I thought SRS was a point differential metric based on strength of the schedule.

It is, but point differential (and schedule strength) is only relevant against the season in which it happens.

Let's use 2K ratings just to make an example. Say the Sixers are rated 96 and the Pistons are rated 95, and nobody else is rated higher than 80, with 10+ teams rated 60 or lower. The Sixers and Pistons might break the record for point differential and crack +15 a game or more. Which would put them as like 77-5 and 76-6 threats.

This is partially why the Bulls won 72 games in 1995-96. The addition of the Raptors and Grizzlies. The Bulls would have been the best team, one of the greatest ever and probably won at least 67 games anyway, but the lowering of talent distribution across the board, even if slightly is probably what pushed them over the 70 mark. (Their pythag was 70-12.) Despite having a lower point differential than the 1971 Bucks and 1972 Lakers. (Though the Bucks notably rested their starters and probably could have hit 69-13 as well.) And only slightly higher ones than a number of lesser win teams.

Perhaps ironically, the Raptors gave the Bulls one of their ten losses than season.

Now, this doesn't mean you can't compare across years, but it does mean that the Hawks being the lowest 60 win team doesn't necessarily mean anything if they're still the best team in the league this season. (They aren't but assume hypothetically they are.)

EDIT: Consider it like ORtg and DRtg, the rest of the league has a huge say in a teams exact number. http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/ATL/
The 1990 Hawks have their best ORtg at 113.0 with this years team ranked 9th and the 1998-99 Hawks have the best post-merger DRtg at 97.1 with this years team ranked like I dunno way down there at like 30th or higher. But when set relative to the league the 1990 Hawks still lead at +4.9 against the league, but this years team moves up to 6th all time at +3.3. Defensively the 1999 Hawks still are at the top -5.1 but this years team shoots up to 9th at -2.5. (And 2011-12 shoots from 20-ish to 5th at -3.4.)

The effect isn't as large but it's still there.

Worst Hawks team ever: 2004-05. -9.62 SRS, -5.5 ORtg, +5.0 DRtg. 13-69. Not the worst defensive Hawks team though, the next years team was +5.4.

[Mandich]

Glad to see Ginobili on the list. Shows how valuable he was for those Spurs championships.

People will always criticize LeBron.

I was expecting Dirk, Chauncey and Duncan to be better.

Lold at Kobe. One of the greatest clutch shooters my ass.

[benji]

Mr. Big Shot always hit them during the regular season. As this shows just from the attempts number, it's a lot rarer to get chances in the playoffs.

I like how Courtney Lee is on there simply because of his failed tip-in attempt in the 2009 Finals.