Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

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Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby Andrew on Thu Feb 12, 2015 11:18 pm

...among other things.

"First of all, I've always believed analytics was crap," Barkley said. "You know I never mention the Rockets as legitimate contenders 'cause they're not."

Barkley, who spent four seasons with Houston at the end of his NBA career in the late '90s, said talent—not just statistics—is required to win championships.

"They say that same crap in baseball, and they put these little lightweight teams together and they never win," Barkley said. "They're always competitive to a certain degree and they don't win. It's the same thing in the NBA."


On the surface, it's a predictable response from a player who belongs to a previous generation, a time before advanced stats became popular and widely used. Although Barkley and some of the people defending him in the comments on that article are quick to point out that he's a Hall of Famer and thus knows what he's talking about more than fans, sportswriters, or executives who've never played professional basketball, plenty of former players have proven to be poor judges of talent, either when lobbying for their teams to acquire someone they want to play with, or when they're in front office roles themselves. Likewise, it could just as easily be said that Barkley has never won a championship as a player or an executive - indeed, he's never been an executive - so he doesn't exactly speak from experience or authority when he talks about what it takes to win it all. He has as much experience winning a championship as the people he's criticising.

If nothing else, you could chalk it up to an outspoken and opinionated basketball personality shooting off at the mouth, for entertainment value and to stir the pot as much as anything else. It does genuinely seem that Sir Charles doesn't think much of advanced stats though, which is a fairly close-minded point of view, subscribing to the philosophy of "my knowledge and my observations trump any evidence to the contrary".

That said...I think he has a point. Kind of. I don't discount the importance or relevance of advanced stats, but I also think they're easily misused, or automatically considered irrefutable evidence and an unbeatable argument, kind of like dropping a ten dollar word into a debate on the basis that it sounds smart and thus strengthens the argument. Advanced stats can be carefully cherry-picked, just like any other piece of information, with arbitrary importance given to whatever metric proves your point.

I think a lot of people fall in love with efficiency in particular, equating inefficiency to a player being terrible or lacking in talent. That may be the case, but a player with poor efficiency stats could indeed be a very talented basketball player; they're simply not using those talents efficiently (and possibly, not to their full potential). And of course, there are other factors, such as playing with or coming back from injury, slumps, an offense that doesn't utilise their skills very well, or a lack of quality teammates (resulting in fewer good looks and taking a greater number of low percentage attempts). Context and other observations need to be taken into account.

Still, to dismiss them completely out of hand...well, it's a tad ignorant and arrogant. I'll admit that I was a little sceptical when advanced stats first started to really become a thing in basketball. They sounded like a contrived way of twisting numbers to suit a certain point of view, and to be fair, I think that they some people do misuse them in that manner in discussions. Like I said, it's easy enough to cherry pick and give weight to the stats that support your claim, while ignoring and downplaying the significance of stats that don't gel with your point of view. I also think that raw stats and fair observation have become underrated, as some things are quite obvious without the in-depth breakdown that advanced stats provide. But discount them completely? No, they're too informative and interesting for that.

There's often been rumblings that Barkley is going to seek out a front office position when his contract is up with TNT. If he does go down that route, it will be interesting to see what kind of a job he can do. He and Michael Jordan have reportedly fallen out over his criticism of MJ's front office follies, particularly the selection of Adam Morrison over Brandon Roy...a very valid point on Barkley's part, incidentally. Then again, Roy's knees derailed his career and forced him into retirement before he turned 30, and for what it's worth, Morrison was an acclaimed player in college. It's proof that luck in the Draft, good or bad, goes beyond the lottery. If Barkley does end up running a team, it will be interesting to see if he continues to adhere to a more old school philosophy, and how well it work out for him.

As for his spat with Daryl Morey...well, I'm guessing Sir Charles won't be invited to participate in any events involving Houston Rockets alumni anytime soon.
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby Stress Fracture on Thu Feb 12, 2015 11:25 pm

As much as I like Barkley, he has gone overboard on this. Shaq agrees with him on that, though. But then these days, stats don't lie.

With his spat on Morey, he has hated the Rockets for a long time, which is somewhat ironic because he played there for 4 years. Never called them a contender, had never acknowledged the Rockets a good defensive team this season, and had been high on Kevin Martin and Jeremy Lamb instead on James Harden back in 2012.
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby Andrew on Fri Feb 13, 2015 12:23 am

Making his point with an observation of a single game is pretty absurd; it should go without saying, but that's nowhere near a reasonable sample size. It's also not taking context into account, such as both teams shooting the lights out, or the old adage of "great defense, better offense". Considering that he favours an eyewitness analysis and conventional basketball wisdoms - again, adages like "great offense beats great defense" and "defense wins championships" - you'd expect that he'd keep that line of thinking in mind.
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby shadowgrin on Fri Feb 13, 2015 1:23 am

benji crying, while deleting all traces of Barkley, Shut Up and Jam: Gaiden in all of his storage drives.
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby NovU on Fri Feb 13, 2015 3:26 am

The problem with people like Barkley is that they discredit entire scientific approach to the game. Obviously guys like John Hollinger and Brad Stevens aren't idiots, they just know how to use stats in analysis. Nor the guys that work at 82games nor Synergy are idiots. They're analysts and statisticians. Barkley's job is closer to being an entertainer and half time comedy central guy. Obviously he wants to sell his narratives and hype up whatever the media can sell. He has an agenda, stats don't.

Kenny Smith is also on record saying Stats are useless. Guys like Barkley and him make living selling narratives like Skip Clueless and Stephen A Smith. That's their job. Leave stat people alone.
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby air gordon on Fri Feb 13, 2015 4:57 am

Barkley doesn't have an agenda like smith or bayless (except against Charles Oakley). He doesn't quote anonymous sources, report breaking news, allege certain players are being traded. Heck, he doesn't have a site where you have to pay to read his content ahem

Big deal so he doesn't like the stats. Go read a blog then

The stat boys should put on a suit, go in the studio, and have a nice unscripted discussion with the tnt crew. Shit, if Doris the horse is on tv, so should they
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby NovU on Fri Feb 13, 2015 5:55 am

Barkley = Bayless

They're pretty much the same when it comes to making claims who's better and who's not, but sells great story. Closer to entertainment than analysis with objectivity. It's often these people shitting on stats because it makes their narrative stupid and like Kobe GOAT > Jordum and LeBum.
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby Stress Fracture on Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:03 am

air gordon wrote:Big deal so he doesn't like the stats. Go read a blog then

The stat boys should put on a suit, go in the studio, and have a nice unscripted discussion with the tnt crew.


Sure, he can be displeased with the stats and the guys making it, but calling them idiots is going overboard.

Not being butthurt or something, but come on. Stats and analytics nowadays are important in the game.
benji wrote:LeBron is such a choker. And people were talking about him as an all-time great. As having possibly surpassed Kobe. What a joke.

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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby Andrew on Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:03 am

Again, I don't discount advanced stats myself, but I do think he has a point (whether he intended to make it or not), in that people do fall in love with advanced stats, misuse them, and cherry-pick them to fit their own narratives.

For example: when it comes to raw stats, there are some common benchmarks. Averaging 20+ points and 10+ rebounds is considered a mark of excellence for big men. That's because historically, star big men have at least put up double-doubles, and those who are franchise players usually top 20 points in their scoring average to boot. 30+ points is considered a big scoring night, most likely because that's the league record for career scoring average, and the leading scorers each season are usually up around that mark. 50+ wins is considered a good performance for a team in the regular season, because it's above average, a big round number, and usually secures a Playoff seed (often a decent one, depending on how competitive the Conference is in any given year). Sound reasoning, but still somewhat arbitrary, in terms of being a definitive measure of quality.

So it goes with advanced stats, too. You might decide that it's all about PER, or that eFG% or TS% reigns supreme above any other metric, or that high usage nullifies an offensive accomplishment. You may decide that Win Shares are the only reasonable measure of whether a player is worthy of winning the MVP, or another individual honour. Informative and accurate as they may be, advanced stats can still be cherry-picked and used in a biased manner to suit an argument. Let's not pretend that they, nor absolutely everyone who makes use of them, is above doing that.

Having said that, I think it's important to note that advanced stats do support a lot of observations that are made without them, thus providing a means of measurement. Take Kobe Bryant's 2015 season, for example. Looking at his raw stats on the season, his numbers in most any given boxscore from this year, and watching the games themselves (wherein he was doing things like launching 35 foot threes with plenty of time left on the shot clock) does lead to the logical conclusion that his performance shooting the ball was subpar, and his play inefficient and not really helping the team. The advanced stats back that up, while going into more detail about his usage, efficiency, and whatnot.

That's where I think people like Barkley misunderstand advanced stats, and I think I was one of those people once, too. They don't necessarily tell us something we never knew before, in that they don't contradict conventional basketball wisdom and common knowledge; they explain and measure it. Valid observations such as a player dominating the ball and stagnating the offense, or taking too many low percentage shots - things that are pretty obvious - can be measured and quantified with advanced stats. But it's something that Barkley doesn't want to get into or deal with, so he writes it off as geeky nonsense, making an appeal from authority as a former player (and a great one at that).

That's why it would be interesting to see how he would perform as a GM, relying on "educated opinion". Of course, whether he does change his mind on advanced stats or methods of judging talent, I think he'll find the job more difficult than he makes it out to be from the comfort of the analyst's chair. It's easier to criticise and lecture a team about what they should've done in hindsight, rather than make it happen in the first place.
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby air gordon on Fri Feb 13, 2015 9:30 am

Stress
Are you implying stats and analytics were less important in the past?

Barkley is acting like a dork. I'm sure you put him in a conversation with one of the numbers crunchers on live tv and he will look like a fool.

I don't care either way. Stats. Eye test. Whatever. In the end they have to play the game.
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby Stress Fracture on Sat Feb 14, 2015 12:59 am

air gordon wrote:Stress
Are you implying stats and analytics were less important in the past?


They were, but not as important as today. Daryl Morey is one example of valuing stats and analytics to get players, which I think wasn't used back then.
benji wrote:LeBron is such a choker. And people were talking about him as an all-time great. As having possibly surpassed Kobe. What a joke.

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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby benji on Sat Feb 14, 2015 6:22 pm

Amusingly "advanced stats" LOVE Barkley* and a number of the more famous proponents (and I bet Morey would agree) have come to consider his career underrated despite the MVP. There's come to be a bit of a consensus that he was robbed of the MVP in 1989-90. And some even contend he was the best offensive player, not Jordan, of the 1987-91 period due to his offensive rebounding.

*7th All Time in ORtg, 11th All-Time in PER, 9th All Time in Win Shares Per 48 Minutes, 3rd All Time in Box Score Plus/Minus, 7th All-Time in TS%. 10th All-Time in OWS and 12th in WS despite a comparatively short career.
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby [Q] on Sat Feb 14, 2015 6:35 pm

I think a lot of guys on TNT & ESPN don't really get what people mean when they say "analytics". It's almost become synonymous with "statistics", which is why it's getting a lot of criticism from former players on TV (as well as former "coach" Mark Jackson who criticized it while saying "we coaches")

I give credit to Morey for swinging the Harden deal and prying him away from OKC, but I don't think analytics really played a part in that. Over the last few years, the Rockets have been more successful than the average team at finding & acquiring good talented players. Harden trade + drafting Parsons in the 2nd round + signing Lin + signing Beverly + signing Howard... props to Morey for managing the cap and being able to sign all of these guys
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby benji on Sat Feb 14, 2015 6:54 pm

Analytics backed Morey's strategy of accumulating and flipping assets without the lottery. Which isn't a new strategy, the thing a lot of people don't get about stats in basketball is that a lot of it has confirmed certain conventional wisdom as much as it's upset it. The importance of multiple passes for example. Acquire talent/pieces and worry about the fit later because it sets you up for those Harden trade opportunities. The three is important because of spacing and because the lower % is offset by the extra point.

The big one that is still fought over/against is the notion that players maintain or improve their play in more minutes. That's continued to be dismissed despite an endless amount of evidence supporting it and almost none opposing it. (Except in cases of physical limitations.)

Where analytics also played a role is that Morey identified good players, he just dealt out a buttload of em. (Morris twins, Jordan Hill, Omar Asik, etc.)
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby NovU on Sat Feb 14, 2015 7:20 pm

benji wrote:The importance of multiple passes for example.

Interestingly I have read somewhere that stats don't back this up. More passes don't necessarily translate to better basketball. But the stats suggested less the dribbling, the better it is. (This one could be obvious because high percentage shots are dribble-less dunks/layups/assisted open shots, and a lot of stagnant offense is usually due to one star player pounding the ball to death.)

I am interested to know about your reasoning behind this claim: "The importance of multiple passes". I'm sure Kobe disagrees btw. :P
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby [Q] on Sun Feb 15, 2015 7:42 am

Growing up I've always thought that playing "the right way" meant passing the ball around to the open guy because the ball travels faster through passing than dribbling. It's not so much that more passes is better, but passing the ball to find open guys results in more success whether it takes 1 or 3 passes to get to that result
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby bowdown on Mon Feb 16, 2015 5:28 am

Qballer wrote:Growing up I've always thought that playing "the right way" meant passing the ball around to the open guy because the ball travels faster through passing than dribbling. It's not so much that more passes is better, but passing the ball to find open guys results in more success whether it takes 1 or 3 passes to get to that result

Also when the ball is passed around more, the players feel more engaged and work harder.
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby [Q] on Mon Feb 16, 2015 2:17 pm

Exactly. In pickup basketball, no one's motivated to cut or set screens because they won't get the ball
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby benji on Mon Feb 16, 2015 7:49 pm

Passing the ball is faster than dribbling it somewhere, it forces defensive rotations to be faster.

That's why an increasing in Thibs and his style have mirrored the increase of the spacing, ball rotating offense, it's conservative and tries not to overreact to the rotation of the ball. The counter was Miami's "blitz" which was based around the assumption it could rotate AND cover faster than teams could create openings.

When you can put more than one capable passer on the floor, defenses struggle to react fast enough, even conservative ones. The Spurs can put four on the floor with Duncan, Diaw, Ginobili and Parker. With three of these guys being primary scorers it hurts even more.

Now it's not ideal and can be hard to tell from the stats since BAD offensive teams also have high assist rates since nobody can create their own shot and their clock usage boosts the "pass once then shoot" factor. That said, some of the top teams in assisted percentage are the Warriors (Curry, Green, Iguodala, etc.) and Hawks (whose hijacked Spurs offense is based around ball rotation). And conversely teams at the bottom in opponent assisted are defensive disasters like the Sixers while a team like the Grizzlies is tops at restricting assisted baskets.

But to use a dumb example just to easily illustrate the concept, fire up 2K and pass smartly around the perimeter and through the high post without a play, eventually the defense can't keep up because passes move faster than players and you get multiple offensive opportunities created from it that aren't just the AI's fault. It's not real life but it can help you understand why it works in real life as you see the shots/angles/paths open up.
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby Spree#8 on Tue Feb 17, 2015 2:42 am

benji wrote:defensive disasters like the Sixers


Um... what? The Sixers are an offensive disaster. Their defense is ranked 12th in the league, according to basketball-reference.

And they should continue to improve as they have been due to the young guys getting a better grasp of the system and messing up less rotations than at the beginning of the season (very noticeable even to the eyetest). For instance, in their last 15 games they average a DRtg of 101.8, compared to 104.7 on the season.

Their high opp ast% could probably be explained by a combination of the length and athleticism they have which makes scoring 1v1 on them hard and the "pack the paint" defensive strategy, which collapses defenders inside, forces rotations and will lead to a decent amount of open shots on the perimeter following kickouts.
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby air gordon on Tue Feb 17, 2015 2:57 am

So when's the next hoops summit? Rewatched the one from last year. Worth a watch for sure. Stan van gundy, Brian colangelo, brad Stevens, Steve Kerr, a few numbers guys were on it. Svg in a way is on barkleys train of thought but expresses it better
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby shadowgrin on Tue Feb 17, 2015 9:29 am

benji wrote:Passing the ball is faster than dribbling it somewhere, it forces defensive rotations to be faster.

That's why an increasing in Thibs and his style have mirrored the increase of the spacing, ball rotating offense, it's conservative and tries not to overreact to the rotation of the ball. The counter was Miami's "blitz" which was based around the assumption it could rotate AND cover faster than teams could create openings.

When you can put more than one capable passer on the floor, defenses struggle to react fast enough, even conservative ones. The Spurs can put four on the floor with Duncan, Diaw, Ginobili and Parker. With three of these guys being primary scorers it hurts even more.

Now it's not ideal and can be hard to tell from the stats since BAD offensive teams also have high assist rates since nobody can create their own shot and their clock usage boosts the "pass once then shoot" factor. That said, some of the top teams in assisted percentage are the Warriors (Curry, Green, Iguodala, etc.) and Hawks (whose hijacked Spurs offense is based around ball rotation). And conversely teams at the bottom in opponent assisted are defensive disasters like the Sixers while a team like the Grizzlies is tops at restricting assisted baskets.

But to use a dumb example just to easily illustrate the concept, fire up 2K and pass smartly around the perimeter and through the high post without a play, eventually the defense can't keep up because passes move faster than players and you get multiple offensive opportunities created from it that aren't just the AI's fault. It's not real life but it can help you understand why it works in real life as you see the shots/angles/paths open up.

But stats don't back it up! I don't have to think for myself because the stats are there!
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby NovU on Tue Feb 17, 2015 4:02 pm

LoL @ using street pick up game and 2K video game arguments as evidence. :lol:
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby Sauru on Tue Feb 17, 2015 4:08 pm

i honestly think barley wants to be let go from the show
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Re: Like advanced stats? Charles Barkley thinks you're an idiot.

Postby NovU on Tue Feb 17, 2015 4:51 pm

Spree#8 wrote:
benji wrote:defensive disasters like the Sixers


Um... what? The Sixers are an offensive disaster. Their defense is ranked 12th in the league, according to basketball-reference.

And they should continue to improve as they have been due to the young guys getting a better grasp of the system and messing up less rotations than at the beginning of the season (very noticeable even to the eyetest). For instance, in their last 15 games they average a DRtg of 101.8, compared to 104.7 on the season.

Their high opp ast% could probably be explained by a combination of the length and athleticism they have which makes scoring 1v1 on them hard and the "pack the paint" defensive strategy, which collapses defenders inside, forces rotations and will lead to a decent amount of open shots on the perimeter following kickouts.

If you consider Defensive Rebounding as an element of Defense, things actually look more interesting than what a single metric(DRtg) depicts.

The Heat with LBJ had no problem stopping opponent from making shots at contender level but often times, it didn't mean much because opponents were able to get more possessions to work with.
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