Your End Of Season Awards (2009-10 Edition!)

[Lamrock]

Though there are still a few days remaining in the regular season, I thought it would be fitting to make this thread. Post who you think should (/will) win the NBA awards this season. Here are my picks:

MVP: LeBron James | Will win: LeBron James
Best player on the best team, potential scoring champion, head and shoulders the best player in the NBA - How could it not be LeBron? Runner-up would be Howard.

DPotY: Dwight Howard | Will win: Dwight Howard
Well of course its Howard. head-and-shoulders the best defender in the league, he anchors one of the best defenses, and leads the league in blocks and boards. My runner-up would be Bogut.

RotY: Tyreke Evans | Will Win: Tyreke Evans
The Kings suck, but this guy averages 20-5-5 on surprisingly efficient shooting (for being one of like 2 good players on his team). Runner-up is Blair, whose only obstacle is playing time.

Sixth Man: Carl Landry | Will Win: Jamal Crawford
The Kevin Martin trade killed Landry's chances of winning this award, being shipped to an awful team and given a starting role. Before the trade, he was a beast off the bench, being essentially a mini-Amar'e. Runner up is Crawford, who is a fantastic fit in Atlanta, and is having perhaps his best season to date.

MIP: Nicolas Batum | Will Win: Aaron Brooks (despite not improving)
Batum's abbreviated season prevents him from contending for any awards (or league leader charts), but Batum has been incredible this year. He shoots 66.5% (!), is already the team's best defender and it only took him a couple weeks to usurp five year pro Martell Webster's starting spot. Batum's PPG isn't terribly impressive, but he is an amazing player on both ends, and I wouldn't trade him for Durant. Runner-up is Josh Smith because he went from a glorified Darius Miles to a star.

CoY: Scott Skiles | Will Win: Scott Brooks
In the offseason, the Bucks essentially swapped Ramon Sessions, Richard Jefferson and Charlie Villanueva for one of the worst offensive PG's in the league, and yet the team has improved by about 10 wins and plays tremendous defense. Despite injuries, the team is fun to watch, and until Bogut went down, was probable to make the conference semis. (My runner-up) Scott Brooks will win because he helped the Thunder more than double their wins, but isn't that really Sam Presti's doing?

Exec: Sam Presti | Will Win: Sam Presti
Turned a 23 win team into a 50-ish win team. A rich man's Kevin Pritchard. Runner up has to be John Hammond. Addition by subtraction, as well as getting John Salmons and a higher pick for cap space.

All-NBA First Team: Nash | Wade | Durant | LeBron | Howard
All-NBA Second Team: Billups | Kobe | Dirk | Duncan | Bogut
All-NBA Third Team: Deron | Roy | Melo | Boozer | Pau
(some bad omissions I'm sure)

All-D First Team: Rondo | Wade | G-Wallace | Dwight | Bogut
All-D Second Team: Kidd | Sefolosha | Josh Smith | Duncan | Perkins

All-Rookie First Team: Tyreke | Curry | Blair | Ty Lawson | Thornton
All-Rookie Second Team: Jennings | Collison | Harden | Jerebko | Taj Gibson

Sportsmanship Award: Allen Iverson

[J@3]

Batum's PPG isn't terribly impressive, but he is an amazing player on both ends, and I wouldn't trade him for Durant

You wouldn't trade some decent Blazers role player for a 21 year old who's averaging 30 points per game for a Western Conference play-off squad on 61% shooting?

Your picks are pretty decent all round though, including Batum for MIP. Just stunned you wouldn't trade him for Durant.

[benji]

I am doing a more extensive write-up for dotorg. But am waiting for the season to finish to have complete stats.

Anyway,

MVP - Should: LeBron James | Will: LeBron (Unless there is LeBron Fatigue in which case people will look at Durant and Kobe.)
OPOY - Should: LeBron | Will: Nobody, the award doesn't exist for some reason.
DPOY - Should: Dwight Howard | Will: Howard (Unless there is Dwight Fatigue, then we look at Gerald Wallace or Josh Smith.)
ROY - Should: Tyreke Evans | Will: Evans
6TH - Should: Manu Ginobili | Will: Jamal Crawford (Players more deserving than Crawford include: Kevin Love, Anderson Varejao, J.J. Redick, Chris Andersen, Luke Ridnour, Carl Landry, Paul Milsap, Nick Collison.)
MIP - Should: Kevin Durant | Will: Aaron Brooks for some reason.
COY - Should: Scott Brooks | Will: No idea. And here's why it should be Brooks, take a look at the top ten teams from the pre-season projections I did on the East:

Contenders:
1. CLE
2. ORL
3. BOS
First/Second Round Fodder:
4. ATL
5. CHA
6. MIA
One and Done:
7. MIL
8. CHI
9. TOR
10. IND

Bucks making the playoffs was EXPECTED, meanwhile out West:

Lottery-Bound:
12. OKC
13. LAC

Top five guys on the Thunder last year: Durant, Green, Westbrook, Collison, Wastson (although Sefolosha took over the SG spot down the stretch and would've been fourth in minutes had he been with the team all year)
Top five guys on the Thunder this year: Durant, Green, Westbrook, Sefolosha, Krstic.
Basically doubled the wins playing four of the same five guys. Even better?
Starting lineup for 16 of the Thunder's last 19 games last year: Krstic, Green, Durant, Sefolosha, Westbrook. Record: 4-12.
Starting lineup for 76 of the Thunder's games this season: Krstic, Green, Durant, Sefolosha, Westbrook. Record: 48-28.
They also went from 29th on offense to 14th, and 20th on defense to 8th.

Exec - Should: Can't decide. | Will: Sam Presti for making high draft picks and hiring Scott Brooks apparently.

Teams? Maybe later.

[Lamrock]

Jae, I think Batum still has a lot room to improve (and he's not totally a role player - he averages 15 PPG per36), and on any other team, Batum for Durant would be a no-brainer. However, I'm inclined to believe that in the Blazers offense, Durant would be a glorified Ra$hard Lewis.

Forgot that Manu still did his "come off the bench and play starter minutes" thing. He's the no-brainer sixth man.

[Fresh8]

My 'should' winners are more like who I want to win.

MVP: LeBron James | Will win: LeBron James - Can't really argue about this. He's got the stats, the team record, and the NBA alpha dog status. The Cavs are contenders this season and as a Lakers fan, I am quite worried. This is all LeBron's doing.

DPotY: Andrew Bogut | Will win: Dwight Howard - Would have loved to have seen Bogut win it. I was quite shocked (and am still shocked) about him being second in the league in blocks. He's 8th in rebounds. From what I have read as well as what I have seen, is Bogut trying hard on defense and going to contest shots. I never thought of him as the defensive player he is - Bogut was all about the passing skills and the low post scoring for me until this season.

RotY: Brandon Jennings | Will Win: Tyreke Evans - Tyreke will win because he is a great player. I just want to recognise rookies who helped their teams make the playoffs in their rookie seasons. I was a skeptic of Jennings before he entered the league but now have come away impressed.

Sixth Man: Lamar Odom | Will Win: Jamal Crawford - Sentimental vote for Lamar. He is awesome.

MIP: Joakhim Noah | Will Win: Aaron Brooks - Was impressed by Noah when I last watched him play. I've got to be honest that I don't really care about this award. But I've also got to say that if T-Mac could win it back in 2001 or whatever, then perhaps Durant can win it after solidifying his position as a superstar and MVP candidate?

CoY: Nate McMillan | Will Win: Scott Brooks - Respect for McMillan in guiding the Blazers to the playoffs despite injuries to a considerable chunk of his roster.

[benji]

That's not a terrible comparison:

Player	P/36	R/36	A/36	USG%	ORtg	WS	WS/48	PER
McGrady 1999-00	17.7	7.3	3.8	24.3	106	6.6	.129	20.0
McGrady 2000-01	24.1	6.8	4.1	31.2	109	12.2	.189	24.9
Durant 2008-09	23.3	6.0	2.6	28.3	111	7.9	.132	20.8
Durant 2009-10	27.3	6.9	2.5	31.9	117	15.4	.237	26.0

There's a strong case for Durant to have won it last year as well.

I'd still prefer to ignore players in their first three years, but I can't be assed.

[Modifly]

MIP: Nicolas Batum | Will Win: Aaron Brooks (despite not improving)

I think I'll have to disagree here.

http://www.nba.com/rockets/news/out_the ... 03_23.html

You can say that it's from Rockets.com, so yes, the article will be supporting Brooks to win the award, but those numbers are legit.

Here are some parts from that article:

Player 2008-09 2009-10 Points Increase:


• Aaron Brooks 11.2 19.6 +8.4

• George Hill 5.7 12.5 +6.8


• Brook Lopez 13.0 19.0 +6.0

• Trevor Ariza 8.9 14.7 +5.8

• Carmelo Anthony 22.8 28.4 +5.6


• Of players who even saw at least 1,000 minutes played in 2008-09, Brooks again stands first in points per game (+8.4) improvement to 2009-10.

• Among players with at least 70 games played or 400 assists last season, Brooks (+2.3) stands as one of just two players in the NBA with an increase of two assists per game from 2008-09 to 2009-10:

Brooks is also the NBA leader for three pointers made. This season he also broke the franchise record for most consecutive games with a three pointer and most three pointers made in a season, set earlier by Luther Head and Rafer Alston, respectively. However, that doesn't count towards him improving.

It's not just Brooks's stats that have increased, but if you have been following him all season and have been watching him play, you'll see the improvements that his stats doesn't necessarily show such as leadership, decision-making, hitting clutch shots and the like. Brooks have really improved and matured as a player this season. It's his first year as a full-time starter, and he has coped with that role extremely well. IMHO, if he wins the award it'll be because his improvements are more obvious than any other players.


I strongly agree with you on Landry's case though. That trade killed any chances of him winning the sixth man award. If he was still coming off the bench then he's a shoo-in along with Crawford.

[Andrew]

"My pick" is my Should selection, "Prediction" is my Will selection.

Most Valuable Player

My pick: LeBron James
Prediction: LeBron James

As Ben said, it's possible the media looks for a different angle with the MVP award this year and opts not to give LeBron the award in back-to-back seasons, but more likely they'll look at his 2009/2010 season and he'll get the nod. I'll also predict that the fan vote won't decide anything.

Defensive Player of the Year

My pick: Dwight Howard
Prediction: Dwight Howard

Howard leading the league in blocks and rebounds should secure this award, though again I'd agree with Ben's picks of Gerald Wallace and Josh Smith should the collective decision be made to try for different award winners ever year, regardless of whether a player is deserving of a repeat. Still, I'll tip Howard to win with Wallace and Smith finishing second and third (in some order) in the voting.

Rookie of the Year

My pick: Tyreke Evans
Prediction: Tyreke Evans

If Brandon Jennings maintained that top ten scoring average he had following the 55 point night, I could see him having a better chance but Evans outlasted Jennings' hype and has had a fine rookie season. Team record doesn't usually matter for this award, it might win Jennings a few more votes but I think Evans has pretty much got it locked up.

Sixth Man of the Year

My pick: Carl Landry
Prediction: Jamal Crawford

The hype seems to be with Crawford this year, so he seems like a safe prediction and not entirely undeserving. I agree that Landry would've had a better chance in Houston, he seems to have become an afterthought in Sacramento (and he's starting to boot, distracting from his performance as a sixth man even though he easily qualifies having started just 26 of 77 games).

Most Improved Player

My pick: Joakim Noah
Prediction: Aaron Brooks

I like the case for Durant, Noah's a homer pick though I think he should garner a few votes for his improvement this season. Aaron Brooks seems to be favoured though, so I too would pick him to win.

Coach of the Year

My pick: Scott Brooks
Prediction: Scott Brooks

Ben's already covered the why. Skiles should get a respectable amount of votes but looks like the honour will go to Brooks.

Executive of the Year

My pick: Danny Ferry
Prediction: Danny Ferry

I wouldn't be completely surprised if Presti won it instead, but the Thunder didn't make a whole lot of changes to their roster this year. Ferry brought in Shaq and Jamison very cheaply, took advantage of the loophole and brought back Ilgauskas and the Cavs once again have the league's best record. I'd give it to Ferry.

All-NBA Predictions

First: Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Dwight Howard
Second: Chauncey Billups, Dwyane Wade, Dirk Nowitzki, Tim Duncan, Amar'e Stoudemire
Third: Deron Williams, Brandon Roy, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Pau Gasol

All-Defensive Predictions

First: Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade, Josh Smith, Gerald Wallace, Dwight Howard
Second: Jason Kidd, Kobe Bryant, Thabo Sefolosha, Tim Duncan, Andrew Bogut

All-Rookie Predictions

First: Tyreke Evans, Brandon Jennings, Stephen Curry, DeJuan Blair, Ty Lawson
Second: Darren Collison, Taj Gibson, Marcus Thornton, James Harden, Jonas Jerebko

[Lamrock]

Modifly, All of those things can be attributed to an increase in minutes and usage. He "leads" more because a good chunk of the 2008-09 team is gone. He makes more clutch shots because he takes more. He scores more because he takes more shots. He's made marginal improvements (+3 offensive rating, +.027 TS%), but seems to have regressed defensively with the rest of the team. He's improved, but only the average amount from a third year player.

Andrew, Would this make Ferry the first person to have their team win less games than the previous season but still with Exec of the Year?

[benji]

I think I'll have to disagree here.

http://www.nba.com/rockets/news/out_the ... 03_23.html

You can say that it's from Rockets.com, so yes, the article will be supporting Brooks to win the award, but those numbers are legit.

Except he's playing 36mpg compared to 25mpg last season so the numbers are "legit" but are pretty meaningless. Increased minutes and increased usage account for the bulk of his per game increases.

Brooks improved, but he's not the most improved, his extra minutes exaggerate his improvement.

I like the case for Durant, Noah's a homer pick though I think he should garner a few votes for his improvement this season.

Noah was better last year.

J.J. Redick, Sonny Weems, Donte Greene, Channing Frye, Jerryd Bayless are the five guys after Durant. Then I'd look at Brooks, Bogut, Nazr Mohammed and David Lee. The first five guys plus Durant are players who either completely moved from one class of player to another (unplayable to useful, role player to key player, star to top-three in the league, etc.) or completely changed their game. The latter four are all guys who moved more within their own class, Bogut and Lee took that fifth year step to finalize their All-Star status, Brooks solidified his existing status as a starter, and Nazr Mohammed is a fluke.

[Lamrock]

Forgot about Bayless. He's not great now, but he was horrible last year. Shame Batum missed most of the year. He would be a shoe-in.

[Modifly]

benji, Lamrock, you guys silenced me pretty well.

Brooks improved, but he's not the most improved

I think this sentence sums it up best.

Without Brooks the Rockets would suck even harder this season though.

[Lamrock]

Without Brooks the Rockets would suck even harder this season though.

Well, maybe...

Player	ORtg	DRtg	WS/48
Kyle Lowry	113	109	0.117
Aaron Brooks	108	111	0.094

[benji]

On the flip side, without Ariza (and with Martin and Hill all season) they might have made the playoffs.

[Andrew]

Andrew, Would this make Ferry the first person to have their team win less games than the previous season but still with Exec of the Year?

Nope. Zollie Volchok, then of the Sonics, won the award in 1983. The Sonics won 48 games in 1983, compared to 52 in 1982. Similarly, Joe Dumars won the award after the Pistons posted back to back 50-32 seasons and other winners have come from teams that had minimal improvements to their record (ie only a couple of wins better than the previous season). The Cavs will fall short of last year's record but they still topped the sixty win mark, locked up the league's best record and acquired talented players without having to give up much in return. I think he's made good enough moves and the Cavs have had a good enough follow up to last year for him to at least have a case for the award.

[benji]

What the hell did Volchok win the award for? I wouldn't call this impressive in any way: http://www.basketball-reference.com/tea ... tions.html

The winner the next season is Vince Boryla. The Nuggets went 45-37 the year before, then 38-44, with the big trade listed here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/tea ... tions.html not coming until after he won the award.

They must have been picking randomly in the early 1980s.

[Rip32]

Should Win | Will Win

MVP: LeBron James | Will win: LeBron James - Not sure what to put here, but I sure as hell know this guy agrees with this pick:

DPotY: Dwight Howard| Will win: Dwight Howard - If he ever learns to keep his blocked shots in the field of play and not the middle of the lower bowl he could be even more dangerous. I do like me some Andrew Bogut sometimes, but Dwight's probably got this one locked-up.

RotY: Tyreke Evans | Will Win: Tyreke Evans - Evans has been great all year long and I think his season-long success will be the clincher. Steph Curry has probably been the rookie of the past two months, but I kind of feel like his stats are magnified because of the Warriors "style" of play. Not to say he isn't a good player, but I'd like to see how he would do in Tyreke's situation in Sacto.

Sixth Man: Jamal Crawford | Will Win: Jamal Crawford - Crawford's been big for ATL and has been having a career year when it comes to over statistics. I think winning plays a part in the winner of this award, which hurts the case of a guy like Carl Landry. I wouldn't be surprised if Ginobili won it though.

MIP: Josh Smith | Will Win: Aaron Brooks - I guess Aaron Brooks is probably the real winner at this point, so there's no reason to really pick against him. While his stats have only improved due to a minutes boost, he has become a really solid go-to scorer when the Rockets need a bucket. Josh Smith seems to have finally put his head on the right way, which might be why the Hawks have looked like a team that could win a playoff series or two depending on match-ups. He has also stopped shooting three-pointers, which may be the best basketball decision he's ever made.

CoY: Nate McMillan | Will Win: Scott Brooks - Brooks will win the award because his team has improved so much, but is it because of his coaching or the fact that his three top five draft picks are becoming more and more experienced? On the same note, I agree that it's something to see McMillan leading an injury riddled Portland team to the playoffs again, but can these playoff appearances be credited more to the fact that Brandon Roy is a legit #1 guy who has proven he can carry his team (or what's left of it at the end of the season)?

Comeback player of the year: Ben Wallace | Will Win: Ben Wallace - Don't even judge me, I need this ok?

All-NBA First team
F: LeBron James
F: Kevin Durant
C: Dwight Howard
G: Steve Nash
G: Kobe Bryant

Second team
F: Dirk Nowitzki
F: Carmelo Anthony
C: Andrew Bogut
G: Dwyane Wade
G: Deron Williams

Third team
F: Chris Bosh
F: Pau Gasol
C: Tim Duncan
G: Brandon Roy
G: Joe Johnson

I'm sure I forgot about someone.

All-Rookie First team
F: Jonas Jerebko
F: James Harden
C: DaJuan Blair
G: Stephen Curry
G: Tyreke Evans

Second team
F: Omri Casspi
F: Marcus Thornton
C: Taj Gibson
G: Ty Lawson
G: Darren Collison

[benji]

Comeback player of the year: Will Win: Ben Wallace

This award hasn't existed since 1986.

[Modifly]

Without Brooks the Rockets would suck even harder this season though.

Well, maybe...

Player	ORtg	DRtg	WS/48
Kyle Lowry	113	109	0.117
Aaron Brooks	108	111	0.094

Lowry is excellent at controlling the tempo of the game, plays better defense than Brooks, draws more fouls than Brooks, gets to the hole stronger than Brooks, but I'd take Brooks over Lowry any day. Brooks is a better scorer, a better shooter, and right now I would say that Brooks is as good a passer as Lowry too. He just doesn't pass the ball as much because he has a tunnel vision. Whenever he drives to the hole all he see is the rim, which isn't really a good thing because he should be kicking the ball out to an open man on the perimeter when he's stuck. Brooks is starting for a reason. If Lowry is better than Brooks Adelman would have given Lowry the starting spot already. Even T-Mac gets benched. These two guys compliment each other on the court. They're good at different things.

[Lamrock]

Least Valuable Player: Rafer Alston - Registered -1.6 offensive loss shares, contributed to an 0-18 Nets start and posted a -20 Off-Def Rating before pulling an A.I., speaking of whom, runner-up would be Iverson.

Least Improved Player: Michael Redd - The Bucks went 6-12 with Redd in the lineup, and before his thousandth ACL tear, he was anything but Redd hot, posting by far his worst season to date. (not counting his 35 minute rookie campaign)

Worst Defensive Player: Jose Calderon - Worst defensive player on the worst defensive team, as well as just an absolute joke on D. He is the only player on the defensively challenged Craptors to not register even a tenth of a defensive win share, and posts one of the worst defensive ratings in the league. On offense, he's fantastic, but he couldn't defend a D-leaguer.

Worst Rookie of the Year: Terrence Williams - He may have scored a lot of points against Chicago in last night's meaningless pride game, but he's sucked all year.

Worst Coach of the Year: Don Nelson - Hopefully he coaches two more years. He'll definitely get the 94 losses needed to break Wilkins' other coaching record.

Worst Exec of the Year: Joe Dumars - Good thing they're going to be paying Ben Gordon and Charlie V $18 million+ a year for the next half decade to sit on the bench and lose 50+ games.

[benji]

If Lowry is better than Brooks Adelman would have given Lowry the starting spot already.

Why would you conclude that?

[Modifly]

Why not? What's the point of bringing Lowry off the bench if he's really starting material? Adelman is not a stupid coach, except for the way he handled the McGrady situation. IMHO, Lowry is more effective off the bench while Brooks is more effective starting. If Lowry is better than Brooks he will have cracked the starting spot by now. Like I said, these two guys compliment each other on the floor because they're good at very different things.

[benji]

Landry was obviously better than both Hayes and Scola yet he came off the bench.

Everyone on the team is better than Ariza yet he keeps starting.

[Modifly]

Landry was obviously better than both Hayes and Scola yet he came off the bench.

Everyone on the team is better than Ariza yet he keeps starting.

True that. Couldn't agree more about Ariza. I lol'd so hard at that.

For some reason I cant explain I think Scola is better than Landry though.

[The X]

I'm surprised everybody expects Bogut to make one of the three All-NBA teams. He plays for Milwaukee & I honestly can't see him being picked this year, even though I think he's worthy of 3rd team.

I'm thinking Duncan, Amar'e & Bosh all will get consideration as centres even though that's not their "defined" starting position.