NBA.com GM Survey: 2008-09 Predictions

[Andrew]

GM Survey Index

So a few of us threw out some early predictions about a week or two ago, now the annual NBA.com GM Survey tells us how all the team's executives think the 2008/2009 season will go down.

The results, in a nutshell:

• Lakers over Celtics in the Finals
• Philadelphia made the best moves, with Elton Brand being the impact player of the offseason and the most surprising move (James Posey being the most underrated acquisition)
• Miami and Portland will be the most improved teams
• Michael Beasley, Greg Oden and OJ Mayo are the frontrunners for ROY
• Greg Oden has been tabbed as being the best of all this year's rookies in five year's time, while Derrick Rose has been picked as the most athletic
• Rudy Fernandez (not surprisingly) has been picked as the international rookie who is most ready to contribute as well as the most likely international player to have a breakout season
• Dirk Nowitzki was picked as the best international player, Ricky Rubio was picked as the best international player not in the NBA
• JJ Hickson was picked most likely to be a sleeper success of all the rookies
• Kevin Garnett is the league's best overall defender and best interior defender, Bruce Bowen is the league's best perimeter defender, Kobe Bryant is the league's best on-ball defender and Allen Iverson is the league's best defender in the passing lanes
• Gregg Popovich is the best coach, the best defensive coach, makes the best in-game adjustments and is the best in the last two minutes, Phil Jackson is the best motivator and Mike D'Antoni runs the best offense
• Tom Thibodeau is the best assistant coach in the league
• Eric Snow is the NBA player most likely to become an NBA head coach

Pretty solid picks across the board. I'm still not sure about the Lakers winning the title being a foregone conclusion though. They haven't been able to back up that claim since 2002 despite some very good opportunities and I still think the Celtics (as well as the Lakers' fellow Western powers like New Orleans and San Antonio) deserve a bit more credit than that.

As said in the other predictions thread, I'm buying into the Greg Oden hype. If he's not the ROY I think he'll lock up MIP in his second or third season and follow a similar path to Dwight Howard in terms of becoming a dominant centre in the league in leaps and bounds.

Miami and Portland are definitely two teams with a bright future. The Heat have the makings of a great duo in Wade and Beasley and a capable veteran in Marion, though it remains to be seen how long he'll be around. I'm sure there'll be more than a couple of teams interested in Marion so Miami should have the opportunity to make a shrewd move. The Blazers also have plenty of young talent that's already good enough for a plus .500 record in the West and now have Oden to add to that mix. Signing all those players to extensions in a few years might throw a spanner in the works though.

[benji]

Someone should go back and see how accurate they've been in the past.

[Andrew]

Good point.

2007/2008 Results

• They picked the Spurs to win the West and the championship. Wrong, obviously.
• The Celtics and Pistons tied the vote to win the East, so they kind of got that one right.
• Their pick for MVP (LeBron) was wrong.
• As was their pick for a breakout season (Luol Deng)
• The Celtics were touted as making the best offseason moves, which I'd say turned out to be a fair assessment. Kevin Garnett was picked as making the biggest impact, too.
• Luis Scola was picked as the most underrated acquisition. Possibly, though you might say it was Posey or even Ray Allen since the focus was mostly on the Celtics acquiring KG.
• The Celtics were picked to be the most improved and they easily were just that.
• KG was also picked as the most surprising acquisition of the offseason.
• Kevin Durant was the pick for ROY, a prediction that proved correct. He was also picked as the best player in five years with Oden coming in second. Guess we'll see.
• Marco Belinelli was picked as the standout international player which didn't end up being the case. Scola and Juan Carlos Navarro were also shortlisted though.
• Rodney Stuckey was the pick for sleeper success. I'd agree that that was the case.
• Coaching picks were pretty much the same as this year, except Popovich was also touted as the best motivator and Phil Johnson was picked as the best assistant.

[Fitzy]

Ricky Rubio was picked as the best international player not in the NBA

surely they must mean the player with the most potential not in the nba

[dansensei]

Which team will win the Pacific Division?

2007/2008 GM's Prediction
1. Phoenix Suns - 100.0%

2008/2009 GM's Prediction
1. L.A. Lakers - 100.0%

hhhmmm...

[Alejandrov011]

dansensei... they picked the Suns because Marion was still running in the desert and Gasol wasn't a Laker yet...


They're so good doing this that the Clippers will win the Pacific division

[Andrew]

surely they must mean the player with the most potential not in the nba

Perhaps that's their line of thinking or they're considering international players who recently played in the NBA or may be likely to someday, though the question was specifically "Who is the best international player NOT in the NBA?".