The Western Playoff Race

[Andrew]

Any predictions as to how this one is going to turn out?

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if all eight teams that qualify for the Playoffs in the West finish up with at least 50 wins. Assuming the current top eight end up qualifying, they could hit the 50 win mark with finishes no worse than the following:

Rockets: 4-12
Lakers: 5-11
Hornets: 6-11
Jazz: 6-8
Suns: 6-10
Spurs: 6-10
Mavericks: 6-9
Warriors: 9-8

Those marks over the final games of the season seem quite doable, especially since seven of those teams can afford to win less than half their remaining games and still finish with at least 50 wins.

Meanwhile, an 11-6 finish would see Denver winning 50 games while the Blazers could still mathematically finish with 50 wins if they go undefeated through their final 15 games but that seems unlikely. Nevertheless, it's quite possible that in addition to eight teams qualifying with 50 or more wins, there'll be a 50 win team missing the Playoffs as well. I believe that will be a first, at least since the Playoffs expanded to 16 teams. And if it wouldn't be the first time, it would certainly be a rarity.

At the moment, I'd have to pick Denver to remain on the outside looking in and finish up with at least 45 wins. I think we'll see at least seven teams finish with 50 wins or better in the West with the Warriors being the odd team out in that instance, still winning around 47/48 games if they fall short.

[Chaser7]

The current record is 7 teams who have finished winning 50 games in one conference, which of course was the West in 2000-2001 (from ESPN.com) I think Denver will fall short, which I kinda fell bad for, considering AI is on his last few good years, given how much they spent. I don't understand why they aren't an elite team, but oh well..

[Andrew]

So it is, I'd forgotten about that. Still, it looks as though that record will be matched or broken this year.

I don't think there's a huge problem with Denver this year, they're just unfortunate enough to have fallen behind eight other teams seemingly on the road to 50+ win seasons. In most other years, the Nuggets would probably be at least around the sixth or seventh seed at this point of the season with their current record. A late season slump by any of the top nine teams in the West right now is likely to leave them out in the cold, though the Nuggets really need that to happen to someone so they can close the gap.

[Bruce]

weirder though, that it is not that far fetched that with a mishap or two, the nuggets could grab the first seed in the west.

[JT_55]

weirder though, that it is not that far fetched that with a mishap or two, the nuggets could grab the first seed in the west.

We're talking about eight mishaps here, not one or two. It would take the 8 best teams in the West to all go poof and Denver to win everything from here on in.

[Andrew]

If the rest of the West posted the finishes I listed in my first post, an 11-5 finish by the Nuggets would put them in first with 51 wins. I wouldn't count on that happening though. Their best bet to break to the top four would be to overtake Utah for the Division lead.

[Platinum]

i really feel sad for the Nugs.
in a few years people would look back and say that the AI trade was a failure. and many would agree, but it's just not. the Nugs are a good team and they can beat any other team in the league. but the West is just crazy this year, and they've been unlucky enough to be hampered by numerous injuries

they're just in the wrong place (the West) at the wrong time (this season)

[Sauru]

i would love to see 9 teams win 50 games, it would be like that time san fran(am i mistaken on the team?) won 100 games and didnt make the playoffs in MLB

[Matt]

Rnd 1 in the West will be like the ECF

[Sauru]

yeah every matchup starting in round 1 in the west will be good, i personally could not care about the bottom 4 teams in the east

[Andrew]

i really feel sad for the Nugs.
in a few years people would look back and say that the AI trade was a failure. and many would agree, but it's just not. the Nugs are a good team and they can beat any other team in the league. but the West is just crazy this year, and they've been unlucky enough to be hampered by numerous injuries

they're just in the wrong place (the West) at the wrong time (this season)

It will be said, but the only people saying it will be the same ones that claim the Wizards are better off without Arenas and the Rockets clearly don't need Yao to win. In any other year the Nuggets would be up there with a 40-26 record at this point of the season and while this year may end in disappointment, there are more years ahead of them where the situation in the West may not be so unforgiving to a team that falls a few games behind.

You're right though, a lot of people will probably look back on the trade without putting it into context.

[Bruce]

But at 15 games away from the playoffs, the Nuggets could still be able to squeeze by. I think they will be duking it out with GSW for the last spot in the west.

[GoHornets]

I feel bad for portland. Theyre doing a great season without Oden and with a really young team.

[Lamrock]

Why do you feel bad for them? They get experience and confidence stemming from a .500+ season, have a #1 pick in Oden coming up, and even the slight possibility of lottery luck. Its pretty good to be a Blazers fan. Besides, of the top 10 in the West, the Blazers are the only ones who wouldn't have a realistic chance at making the second round.

[GoHornets]

Well, as I said, theyre having a great season and their reward should be making the playoffs. But they wont. The disparity between west and east is unfair with west teams

[Drex]

Fuck the West, I want to see the Sixers go deep. Like, 6 games.


Nowadays, a great season just doesn't cut it in the West. At least they're young and they'll get experience, next season will be even better for them.

[Andrew]

I wouldn't say that. It doesn't cut it this year but normally the Nuggets' record would be good for at least the sixth seed and at 35-32, the Blazers would have a good chance at the eighth seed with a strong finish. The West has been the stronger conference for a while now but it's rare that the top eight teams all have a good chance of winning over 60% of their games on the season.

[Chaser7]

I still feel like the Nuggets should be better than an 6th seed even in a "normal year" AI + Carmelo for offense, Camby for Defense, JR off the bench, and Kenyon can provide some of everything everyone once in a while...

[benji]

I don't know. Put the Suns, Mavericks and Spurs out. The Lakers and Hornets were basically waiting for their supporting casts to the star. Jazz were waiting for a backcourt and now have one. I see the Nuggets fitting at six at best, just fine. In a healthy year, I'd put the Rockets over them easily.

The Warriors. I still don't understand how that team works.

[shadowgrin]

It's because the Warriors have hearth.

[Axel]

The Warriors. I still don't understand how that team works.

They have athletic people at every position who can take their defenders off the dribble.

Jax, Baron, Monta, Harrington... with Biedrins who is amazing in the pick and role with any of the aforementioned...

Plus they get a lot of easy transition buckets.

[SpaceFlare]

Dallas is now 0-8 against above .500 teams and it looks like Dirk's got hurt. They seem to be headed out of the playoffs at this rate.

[Sauru]

Dallas is now 0-8 against above .500 teams and it looks like Dirk's got hurt. They seem to be headed out of the playoffs at this rate.

i would say the kidd trade is proving to be a failure

[Andrew]

They still have the advantage of being in the top eight though; Denver still has ground to make up while Dallas just needs to maintain. That's easier said than done but as I said in the other thread, a 6-6 finish by the Mavs would require the Nuggets to go 9-3 the rest of the way.

The Mavs have four games against sub .500 teams left on their schedule, so even assuming they go 4-8 the Nuggets would still have to go 7-5, doable but they've got two games against the Suns and Warriors, a game against Houston and another against Utah and half their games are on the road where they're 14-21 this season. A lot has gone wrong for Dallas lately and it could get much worse, but the Nuggets still need everything to go right for them to overtake the Mavericks in the standings.

[Oskar]

I think Denver will get a spot in playoffs, and my feeling tells that they are going to be good in the playoffs.