Potential, peak age start and end - how they work?

[mauroth]

I'm doing some test on how the potential works in 2k16 in my Draft Classes and until now I'm definitely confused...

People with potential 89/88 who never come close (Labissiere, Simmons...to name a few). Decent starter with potential in the mid 70's that surpass they're own limit by 2 extra points.

And what about Peak age start and end? Shouldn't this be the age when they hit the peak overall, and when they start declining? Because it doesn't work in this way...

I tested a full draft class of 80 players and checked in details the progression of nearly 25 players up to the 2025 season. I didn't check if they had injuries, but from 2022 to 2025 I looked at how they progressed every year.

I also found this post which seems interesting:

http://theeditorscorner.com/forum/thread-1803.html

How does Peak Start and Peak End Work
So as most of you know 2K has implemented the option to determine when a player peaks and when he starts to decline. I decided to take four of the players above and follow them throughout a portion of their careers to see how they progress with all of the sliders set at 50.

PlayerB Overall: 70, Potential: 77, Peak Start: Age 25, Peak End: Age 29
Year 2: 23 years old - 73 overall
Year 3: 24 years old - 75 overall
Year 4: 25 years old - 75 overall
Year 5: 26 years old - 76 overall
Year 6: 27 years old - 75 overall
Year 7: 28 years old - 75 overall

PlayerG Overall: 68, Potential: 74, Peak Start: Age 24, Peak End: Age 26
Year 2: 23 years old - 70 overall
Year 3: 24 years old - 71 overall
Year 4: 25 years old - 72 overall
Year 5: 26 years old - 72 overall
Year 6: 27 years old - 70 overall
Year 7: 28 years old - 67 overall

PlayerI Overall: 75, Potential: 80, Peak Start: Age 28, Peak End: Age 32
Year 2: 21 years old - 79 overall
Year 3: 22 years old - 82 overall
Year 4: 23 years old - 83 overall
Year 5: 24 years old - 84 overall
Year 6: 25 years old - 84 overall
Year 7: 26 years old - 86 overall

PlayerL Overall: 64, Potential: 88, Peak Start: Age 28, Peak End: Age 29
Year 2: 23 years old - 67 overall
Year 3: 24 years old - 70 overall
Year 4: 25 years old - 72 overall
Year 5: 26 years old - 74 overall
Year 6: 27 years old - 77 overall
Year 7: 26 years old - 78 overall

So maybe this is what they meant with they said you can draft a bust or a gem. Things started getting weird when I noticed that Player I was progressing way past that 80 potential. When I went to check his potential rating three years later I noticed that it was 87. Interesting right? So then I go to Player L who was supposed to be the best of all of these guys and his potential rating dropped to an 82. Has anything changed in the first three years? Yes…. apparently Player L had an injury that caused him to miss 72 games. The next year, Player L got a back injury and his potential rating dropped to a 77. Player B had no injuries but his potential rating was one point less (76) than what I initially set it at. Player G’s potential was two points less (72). So what does this mean? Well, apparently injuries do affect potential which is pretty damn cool. It also appears that the CPU slightly alters potential ratings this time around. I’ll have to do more test in the near future to see what’s up.

Oh, I almost forgot to address what I intended to study during this section. Peak start and peak end appear to be working as intended. Without taking training into consideration, it looks as if your player will reach his potential at the peak start age and start to decline at the peak end age as we saw with player G. I’ll test more over the week.

That said, I honestly don't like much the outcome... Too big variance, and above all, I'm scared about the fact that potential doesn't work as a hardcap anymore, but it can be abundantly surpassed. It's difficult to set realistic potential when you have little control on them. Or maybe (and I really hope so), we just have to learn the tricks to master the outcome.

If someone has a legit explanation or some time to do some tests...this is the moment.

Potential is key for roster makers and draft classes, so let's start the discussion.

[PoundedChicken]

Just speculating here, I had some queries about salary cap inflation and rather than the slider being a hard-coded reflection of increases, it just altered the ranges from which the increases are randomly increased each year.

Maybe, the potential kinda works the same way, my guess is potential is re-generated at season start and is probably generated using a formula somewhere along the lines of:

If (Age < Peak Start) -> Set Player Potential = Current Rating + CPURandomPotentialModifier(Potential, Current Rating, GetInjuryModifier)

So the randomness thrown in is two-fold, 1. in that there is a specific randomness built-in as you say to create sleepers and busts and 2. that it regenerates the potential each year, compounding the fact.

So maybe this is what they meant with they said you can draft a bust or a gem. Things started getting weird when I noticed that Player I was progressing way past that 80 potential. When I went to check his potential rating three years later I noticed that it was 87. Interesting right?

So for this to happen, it's entirely possible that the potential can either be increased due to multiple, incremental random outcomes on the high side OR just one big one, that shifts the upper limit up early on.

[Andrew]

I'd actually prefer the potential rating not to be a hard cap, but a rough estimate that can be exceeded or fallen short of, by a reasonable threshold. I think that better reflects the dice roll that is the NBA Draft, and the phenomenon of both break-out stars and busts.

[dwayne12345]

Potential Ratings worked like this last year as well. I had a MyGM where Dakari Johnson from my class was rated a 67 overall with a 72 potential. By 2021 Dakari Johnson was rated an 88 overall and had never suffered any major injuries.

Even though Peak start and end wasn't an editable value in last years' game REDMC users will know that it's been in the engine for at least the past 4 years.

Potential being a hard cap or not doesn't matter since it's not a static rating. So I'm confuse as to why that's even the discussion? Since injuries, playing time, performance, and user training camps can effect potential rating positively or negatively even if it was a hard cap it would still be able to be exceeded or not reached depending on circumstance.

[Rosque]

Don't badges and upgrades in MyGM skew some ratings for players including Potential?

[mauroth]

Potential Ratings worked like this last year as well. I had a MyGM where Dakari Johnson from my class was rated a 67 overall with a 72 potential. By 2021 Dakari Johnson was rated an 88 overall and had never suffered any major injuries.

Even though Peak start and end wasn't an editable value in last years' game REDMC users will know that it's been in the engine for at least the past 4 years.

Potential being a hard cap or not doesn't matter since it's not a static rating. So I'm confuse as to why that's even the discussion? Since injuries, playing time, performance, and user training camps can effect potential rating positively or negatively even if it was a hard cap it would still be able to be exceeded or not reached depending on circumstance.

88 from a 72pot?? That's weird.

In the 2k14 the potential used to be an hard cap. I'm not saying that it was better, because for sure it resulted in too predictable outcome and my leagues always look the same, but at the same time as a DC maker controlling the growth of a player and check longterm potential is key for the best myleague result and amusement.
+/- 2 or max 3 of variation could be fine if combined with a good working and manageable improvement/regression curve.

That said, personally I'd like to know more how the system works and probably Leftos is the right guy for this. I hope he reads this thread and joins us.

[Leftos]

I believe I've explained this in the past, maybe it was a podcast or something, but here goes.

Potential is supposed to represent an approximation of the ceiling of a player, be it a future ceiling or a past ceiling. He can reach it by peak start, maybe a few years after that, maybe even surpass it by a couple of points. Injuries, lack of playing time, bad training staff, can all hinder that progress.

Potential is adjusted every year. Before peak age, after offseason progression, we look at whether the player is still on track to hit his potential by the time he hits his peak. If he didn't progress enough, we adjust potential down to reflect that. If he progressed to the maximum capacity, his potential stays the same. If a player hits his potential early, there's a probability that he'll go a point or over, and potential will be adjusted up as well. By the time a player hits peak start his potential should be the same as his overall. For players that regress (between peak start and peak end in a very minor way and then in a major way after peak end), potential reflects the max historical overall the player had.

So, potential is always at least equal to the overall rating.

[mauroth]

I believe I've explained this in the past, maybe it was a podcast or something, but here goes.

Potential is supposed to represent an approximation of the ceiling of a player, be it a future ceiling or a past ceiling. He can reach it by peak start, maybe a few years after that, maybe even surpass it by a couple of points. Injuries, lack of playing time, bad training staff, can all hinder that progress.

Potential is adjusted every year. Before peak age, after offseason progression, we look at whether the player is still on track to hit his potential by the time he hits his peak. If he didn't progress enough, we adjust potential down to reflect that. If he progressed to the maximum capacity, his potential stays the same. If a player hits his potential early, there's a probability that he'll go a point or over, and potential will be adjusted up as well. By the time a player hits peak start his potential should be the same as his overall. For players that regress (between peak start and peak end in a very minor way and then in a major way after peak end), potential reflects the max historical overall the player had.

So, potential is always at least equal to the overall rating.

Thanks for the reply Leftos, surely I missed were you explained it. Much appreciated really, and now everything looks sharper. I also profit for one extra explanation concerning the hotspots in the shooting tendencies because I'm not sure if I totally understood your previous explanations: these act as cold/hot zones to determinate the shooting success, correct? How should they be edited in a proper way?
Thanks again for your help!

[Look my voice to LP]

Have anyone noticed any generated rookies earn badges throughout their careers in the NBA?
For example a rookie shooting guard came into the league with "bronze" corner specialist badge, after tremendeous season and hot shooting he earned "silver" or "gold" corner specialist badge? or maybe some new badges? does it happen in NBA 2K16?

[joosegoose]

Have anyone noticed any generated rookies earn badges throughout their careers in the NBA?
For example a rookie shooting guard came into the league with "bronze" corner specialist badge, after tremendeous season and hot shooting he earned "silver" or "gold" corner specialist badge? or maybe some new badges? does it happen in NBA 2K16?

In 2k15 I would occasionally see players "progress" into a silver or gold badge, but rarely saw players earn new badges. It was really noticeable when you wound up with league superstars having single digit badges.

I haven't paid super close attention in 2k16 yet, but haven't seen too much different. I do know that I just won a championship with the Clippers and nobody earned the Championship DNA badge, so there's that.

[dwayne12345]

I do know that I just won a championship with the Clippers and nobody earned the Championship DNA badge, so there's that.

You sure about that? I've seen the finals MVP earn championship DNA badges in 2 different MyGM's now. First was Pau Gasol and the 2nd was Jimmy Butler.

[joosegoose]

I do know that I just won a championship with the Clippers and nobody earned the Championship DNA badge, so there's that.

You sure about that? I've seen the finals MVP earn championship DNA badges in 2 different MyGM's now. First was Pau Gasol and the 2nd was Jimmy Butler.

Granted it was a (very) small sample size, but with my one championship I definitely didn't have anyone earn the badge. Iguodala was the only player on my team with the badge the next season, and he had it previously. I was playing in MyLeague.

[dwayne12345]

I do know that I just won a championship with the Clippers and nobody earned the Championship DNA badge, so there's that.

You sure about that? I've seen the finals MVP earn championship DNA badges in 2 different MyGM's now. First was Pau Gasol and the 2nd was Jimmy Butler.

Granted it was a (very) small sample size, but with my one championship I definitely didn't have anyone earn the badge. Iguodala was the only player on my team with the badge the next season, and he had it previously. I was playing in MyLeague.

You're actually right about this. I just checked my current MyGM where the Thunder won the chip. Kevin Durant was finals MVP and he didn't develop Championship DNA badge.

I just realized the only reason Pau Gasol had it in my one MyGM was because he already has the badge assigned to him by default in the game.

I hope that's fixed in the patch.

[Nick]

Thanks for explaining that, Leftos. Interesting stuff!

Before peak age, after offseason progression, we look at whether the player is still on track to hit his potential by the time he hits his peak. If he didn't progress enough, we adjust potential down to reflect that. If he progressed ...

What defines how much a player progresses in the offseason? Is it random, or..?

[Leftos]

It depends on a number of factors. The difference between his OVR and POT, the team's coaching staff, his distance from his peak age, his playing time in the past season, and there's a bit of randomness to it too. Different attributes have different growth and decline curves too.